Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to 2022 Divisional Playoffs! The regular season may be over and even though season-long fantasy football is done, that doesn’t mean you can’t get in on the action that’s happening for the playoffs. Marc Caviglia and Ernie Estrella are tackling Player Prop betting during the playoffs and are going to break down each game for you along with our picks at the end.
Cincinnati Bengals (12-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-5)
Spread: Chiefs (-7.5) (-104 FanDuel)
Total: O/U 54.5 (-110 FanDuel)
Start Time: Sunday, January 23, 3:00pm ET (CBS)
We got a preview of this matchup back in Week 17 when the Bengals were motivated to beat the Chiefs to clinch their first AFC North crown in ages, and secure a playoff berth. Both teams played excellent with the Chiefs jumping on a two touchdown lead. But Cincinnati crept back into the game with big plays by Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase taking over the game.
Cincinnati Bengals
A sign that many are overlooking in this matchup is the licking that Burrow took last week. He was sacked nine times and somehow escaped with a victory. Chris Jones and Frank Clark are going to come after him. I don’t know if Burrow could take another beating like that and still come out victorious. Also, as long as Tyrann Mathieu is playing (currently still questionable as he comes out of concussion protocol) I’m giving the slight defensive edge to the Chiefs.
Now with that said, Burrow is still going to throw a lot. The Chiefs gave up the second-most fantasy points to the QB and Burrow has Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to throw to. It’s hard to bet against Burrow and the Bengals passing attack. Even if the Chiefs go up, the only way to keep pace is to keep throwing. Burrow over 300 is a safe bet, but where are those yards getting distributed?
Chase is a strong bet to get the majority, while Higgins is boom or bust, so I stay away from him. Higgins went over 100 yards in four of his last six regular season games, but he also has five games under 50 yards, including Wild Card Weekend. As for Boyd, he’s scored in four of the last five games. If anyone is an “anytime touchdown” for the Bengals it would be him. But he’s not nearly as safe as Byron Pringle.
Joe Mixon runs, but is not someone who is getting over 60 yards rushing much. He’s done it once in the last seven weeks. Compare that to the seven times he did it through the first 12 weeks of the regular season. He will help out in the passing game however, so while I would bet the under on his rushing yards and attempts (15.5) , I would bet the over on his receiving yards (30.5). He’s been targeted 26 times over the last four weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs
Some might look at the Chiefs’ recent run in with the Bengals and think that could happen again (holding them to 414 yards of offense and just two passing touchdowns). I don’t know, though. The Chiefs are red hot. Patrick Mahomes has thrown eight touchdowns and one pick in the playoffs. He’s completed 63-of-83 passes for a 76 percent completion rating, averaging 9.5 yards per pass. He’s also rushed 10 times for 98 yards and a touchdown.
Yes, the Bengals have played good defense on the Titans and Raiders, but I feel like Mahomes is in the zone to throw over 300 yards and at least three touchdowns because putting them away is so difficult, as even the best defense in the league Buffalo discovered last week.
Once again, Mahomes will be looking to feed Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce with a high volume of targets. Byron Pringle keeps getting the benefit of those two getting so much attention. In his last three games, Pringle has been targeted 22 times and caught 15 passes for just 122 yards but three touchdowns. He’s really emerged as Mahomes’ third option. Kelce is all over the place with his yardage, but against tougher defenses he is good for at least five catches, but I am expecting Kelce will get enough to beat his props with seven catches.
Rarely does Mahomes target a third option as often as he has with Pringle, especially in the red zone. The Bengals could push more coverage his way, but opposing teams are choosing to see if anyone but Kelce or Hill will step up. Pringle has burned them in the last six weeks of the season and that’s why I still like him for an anytime score.
If not Pringle… off of the pass, Demarcus Robinson last scored in Week 16 and Mecole Hardman last scored in Week 17. Hardman did score last week against the Bills but on the ground. Personally, they’re too much of a risk.
Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie will be busy, as will safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates trying to slow down Hill and Kelce. They didn’t do much to slow down A.J. Brown and Julio Jones last week, but they did pick Ryan Tannehill off three times. That was the big difference in the game. Just remember that Tannehill is not on the same level as Mahomes.
The Chiefs did manage 155 yards rushing in Week 17, the Titans last week ran for 140 yards last week, and in the Wild Card game against the Raiders, they gave up 103 rushing yards. Darrel Williams was healthy four weeks ago, but the Chiefs ran over the Bills with Hill, Hardman, Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Their best bet though, was Mahomes, who scrambled for 69 yards. He shouldn’t have to do that this much this week, but as a team, Kansas City racked up 182 rushing yards… against the Bills.
Don’t discount the Chiefs’ run game; I would look to CEH rushing for at least 60 yards, but will not commit to much more than that. Mahomes, against this defensive front might have trouble legging out 30 yards rushing.
Picks to Consider:
- Joe Burrow, Over 287.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
- Joe Mixon, Under 58.5 yards (-115 Party Casino)
- Joe Mixon, Over 3.5 Receptions (+115 FOXBet)
- Joe Mixon, Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-115 BetMGM)
- Ja’Marr Chase, Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes, Over 289.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes, Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (Even DraftKings)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce, Over 5.5 Receptions (-125, PartyCasino)
- Byron Pringle, Anytime Touchdown (+102 FanDuel)
- Byron Pringle, Over 3.5 Receptions (+110 Fanduel)