To improve as a fantasy owner, it’s important to take part in a reflection period. Examine your process and see which players that you were targeting succeeded, which failed, and most importantly, why. Here are the results from last season to help us learn which players outperformed the market and wer 2021’s fantasy football MVPs.
To determine the value of each player last season, it’s important to evaluate players in direct comparison with their position, not by comparing their total points. For instance, Justin Herbert is very likely to outscore Stefon Diggs – but that doesn’t mean he should be drafted higher in one-QB leagues.
Quarterbacks – even mediocre ones – who start the entire season are likely to outscore most wide receivers. Therefore, we need to evaluate how much more (or less) each player scored compared to the average at their position.
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
TL;DR:
- To find fantasy MVPs it is important to find baseline points for each position, or else it becomes impossible to compare position against position
- 2021 was a down year for QB scoring
- Cooper Kupp was the most valuable fantasy football player of 2021
- Depending on whether you sort by total points or points per game, the other most valuable players were Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Jonathan Taylor, and Deebo Samuel
- Mark Andrews was the 7th most valuable player overall and the 2021’s most valuable TE
Points Above Average
To gain a baseline or average at each position, I use Fantasy Douche’s old baselines (from an article that is no longer available on the old Rotoworld) with Apex’s lineup and scoring settings. Apex utilizes PPR Scoring and weekly lineups of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex, K, and D. Defense and kickers were excluded from this study as they generally maintain little year-to-year predictability.
Below are the baselines for each position and their averages per game and for the entire season.
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baseline | 16 | 43 | 60 | 18 |
| Average Season | 312.3 | 193.03 | 201.82 | 175.82 |
| Average Per Game | 19.82 | 14.02 | 13.4 | 11.55 |
The Baseline above refers to the number of players included in the average. The average season finds a replacement-level value for the entire season. The average per game is a replacement-level value for each position per game.
Even when comparing players by position, there is still the question of whether to compare them by points per game or for the entire season. Players who missed any time are not going to be viewed in a favorable light if we’re comparing players by the entire season – as it is evaluated by a player’s total points for the entire season. It is important to include the per-game metric because of the high rate of injuries among NFL players, otherwise, a complete picture of the fantasy landscape would not be reflected in the data.
The table below is sorted by Points Above Average Per Game (“PAA PG”) to give us the opportunity to fairly rank players who missed time due to injury. I also included a column for Points Above Average for the entire season under “PAA S”.
Another vital part of figuring out who was the most valuable is how expensive each player was in terms of draft capital – in other words, their average draft position (ADP). The cost of a player is a big determinant of how much value they can provide. Players like Deebo Samuel, who are drafted at an inexpensive cost and produce at a high level, are league-winning players.
For this reason, the Average Draft Position (ADP) on Fantasy Football Calculator from the beginning of September is listed in the table below.
| Player | POS | ADP | PPR | PPG | PAA S | PAA PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 41.3 | 439.5 | 25.85 | 237.68 | 12.45 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 4 | 193.3 | 24.16 | 0.27 | 10.14 |
| Davante Adams | WR | 6.4 | 344.3 | 21.52 | 142.48 | 8.12 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 13.8 | 373.1 | 21.95 | 180.07 | 7.93 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 89.8 | 339 | 21.19 | 137.18 | 7.79 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 8.5 | 343.8 | 21.49 | 150.77 | 7.47 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 52.8 | 301.1 | 17.71 | 125.28 | 6.16 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 22.4 | 330.4 | 19.44 | 128.58 | 6.04 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 8.2 | 262.8 | 16.43 | 86.98 | 4.88 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | 77.4 | 304.6 | 17.92 | 102.78 | 4.52 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | 90.1 | 255.6 | 18.26 | 62.57 | 4.24 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 1.2 | 127.5 | 18.21 | -65.53 | 4.19 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | 10.6 | 296.5 | 17.44 | 94.68 | 4.04 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 3.8 | 234.7 | 18.05 | 41.67 | 4.03 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | 19.2 | 287.9 | 17.99 | 94.87 | 3.97 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | 47.2 | 242.4 | 17.31 | 40.58 | 3.91 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | 72.7 | 121.1 | 17.3 | -80.72 | 3.90 |
| Josh Allen | QB | 34.4 | 402.6 | 23.68 | 90.30 | 3.86 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | 44.9 | 274.4 | 17.15 | 72.58 | 3.75 |
| Najee Harris | RB | 12.9 | 300.7 | 17.69 | 107.67 | 3.67 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 13.5 | 285.5 | 16.79 | 83.68 | 3.39 |
| James Conner | RB | 96.2 | 257.7 | 17.18 | 64.67 | 3.16 |
| Mike Evans | WR | 37.8 | 262.5 | 16.41 | 60.68 | 3.01 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | 142.8 | 171.2 | 14.27 | -4.62 | 2.72 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 25.9 | 257.8 | 16.11 | 55.98 | 2.71 |
| George Kittle | TE | 28.5 | 198 | 14.14 | 22.18 | 2.59 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 69.3 | 380.8 | 22.4 | 68.50 | 2.58 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 61.3 | 219.1 | 15.65 | 17.28 | 2.25 |
| Tom Brady | QB | 77.8 | 374.7 | 22.04 | 62.40 | 2.22 |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | 34 | 208.9 | 16.07 | 15.87 | 2.05 |
| Mike Williams | WR | 116.2 | 246.6 | 15.41 | 44.78 | 2.01 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | 52.3 | 199.8 | 15.37 | -2.02 | 1.97 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 99.2 | 245.8 | 15.36 | 43.98 | 1.96 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | 2.5 | 206.3 | 15.87 | 13.27 | 1.85 |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | UND | 259.1 | 15.24 | 57.28 | 1.84 |
| Robert Woods | WR | 35.1 | 137.2 | 15.24 | -64.62 | 1.84 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | 48.4 | 241.4 | 15.09 | 39.58 | 1.69 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 41.3 | 300.5 | 21.46 | -11.80 | 1.64 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 22.9 | 361.7 | 21.27 | 49.40 | 1.45 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 9.9 | 215.3 | 15.38 | 22.27 | 1.36 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 17 | 147.2 | 14.72 | -54.62 | 1.32 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 7.5 | 229 | 15.27 | 35.97 | 1.25 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 29.6 | 232.8 | 14.55 | 30.98 | 1.15 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | 102.9 | 231.8 | 14.49 | 29.98 | 1.09 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | 35.4 | 226 | 15.07 | 32.97 | 1.05 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 59 | 333.3 | 20.83 | 21.00 | 1.01 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 100.2 | 312.2 | 20.81 | -0.10 | 0.99 |
| David Montgomery | RB | 25.9 | 195 | 15 | 1.97 | 0.98 |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | UND | 165 | 15 | -28.03 | 0.98 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | 19.7 | 244.3 | 14.37 | 42.48 | 0.97 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | 18 | 71.1 | 14.22 | -130.72 | 0.82 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | 5.3 | 252.1 | 14.83 | 59.07 | 0.81 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | 140.9 | 226.3 | 14.14 | 24.48 | 0.74 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | UND | 208.8 | 12.28 | 32.98 | 0.73 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | RB | UND | 234.6 | 14.66 | 41.57 | 0.64 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | 104.4 | 238.6 | 14.04 | 36.78 | 0.64 |
| Darren Waller | TE | 21.5 | 133.5 | 12.14 | -42.32 | 0.59 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | 57 | 237.5 | 13.97 | 35.68 | 0.57 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 55.4 | 145.3 | 12.11 | -30.52 | 0.56 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | 24.8 | 180.9 | 13.92 | -20.92 | 0.52 |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | 15.6 | 229.1 | 14.32 | 36.07 | 0.30 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 66.7 | 320.6 | 20.04 | 8.30 | 0.22 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 50.9 | 240 | 20 | -72.30 | 0.18 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | 40 | 202.5 | 13.5 | 0.68 | 0.10 |
| Damien Harris | RB | 55.5 | 210.1 | 14.01 | 17.07 | -0.01 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 158.5 | 227.3 | 13.37 | 25.48 | -0.03 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | 112.4 | 314.2 | 19.64 | 1.90 | -0.18 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | 53.2 | 110 | 13.75 | -83.03 | -0.27 |
| Darrell Henderson | RB | 43.8 | 163.4 | 13.62 | -29.63 | -0.40 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 85 | 329.7 | 19.4 | 17.40 | -0.42 |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | 109 | 219.7 | 12.92 | 17.88 | -0.48 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 93.9 | 165 | 11 | -10.82 | -0.55 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | UND | 164.1 | 10.94 | -11.72 | -0.61 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 30.3 | 213.5 | 12.56 | 11.68 | -0.84 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | 132.6 | 138.2 | 12.56 | -63.62 | -0.84 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 157.1 | 180.7 | 10.63 | 4.88 | -0.92 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | 160.9 | 300.3 | 18.77 | -12.00 | -1.05 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 40.3 | 176.6 | 10.39 | 0.78 | -1.16 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | UND | 207.6 | 12.21 | 5.78 | -1.19 |
| Henry Ruggs III | WR | 123.9 | 84.5 | 12.07 | -117.32 | -1.33 |
| James Robinson | RB | 29.1 | 173.9 | 12.42 | -19.13 | -1.60 |
| Noah Fant | TE | 79.2 | 159 | 9.94 | -16.82 | -1.61 |
| Corey Davis | WR | 89.6 | 105.2 | 11.69 | -96.62 | -1.71 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | 95.8 | 147 | 9.8 | -28.82 | -1.75 |
| Russell Gage | WR | 133.8 | 163 | 11.64 | -38.82 | -1.76 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | 75.2 | 195.1 | 12.19 | 2.07 | -1.83 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | 114.3 | 165 | 9.71 | -10.82 | -1.84 |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | 137.9 | 121.7 | 12.17 | -71.33 | -1.85 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 149.7 | 164.3 | 9.66 | -11.52 | -1.89 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | 97.3 | 183.8 | 11.49 | -18.02 | -1.91 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 52.7 | 204.9 | 12.05 | 11.87 | -1.97 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 157.3 | 151.7 | 9.48 | -24.12 | -2.07 |
| Chase Edmonds | RB | 60.4 | 143.3 | 11.94 | -49.73 | -2.08 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | 20.4 | 117.6 | 11.76 | -75.43 | -2.26 |
| Chase Claypool | WR | 61.1 | 166.6 | 11.11 | -35.22 | -2.29 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | UND | 77.7 | 11.1 | -124.12 | -2.30 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | 118.2 | 133 | 11.08 | -68.82 | -2.32 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 91.2 | 197.8 | 11.64 | 4.77 | -2.38 |
| J.D. McKissic | RB | 116.8 | 127.9 | 11.63 | -65.13 | -2.39 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 116.2 | 186.3 | 10.96 | -15.52 | -2.44 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 77.6 | 185.6 | 10.92 | -16.22 | -2.48 |
| Russell Wilson | QB | 69.4 | 242.8 | 17.34 | -69.50 | -2.48 |
| Darrel Williams | RB | 150.3 | 196 | 11.53 | 2.97 | -2.49 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 12 | 148.6 | 11.43 | -44.43 | -2.59 |
| Logan Thomas | TE | 72.2 | 53.6 | 8.93 | -122.22 | -2.62 |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | UND | 180.5 | 10.62 | -21.32 | -2.78 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | 126 | 180.2 | 10.6 | -21.62 | -2.80 |
| Michael Carter | RB | 76.1 | 154.4 | 11.03 | -38.63 | -2.99 |
| DeVante Parker | WR | 162.3 | 103.5 | 10.35 | -98.32 | -3.05 |
| A.J. Dillon | RB | 79.1 | 185.6 | 10.92 | -7.43 | -3.10 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | 102.7 | 162.6 | 10.84 | -30.43 | -3.18 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | 135.4 | 91.5 | 10.17 | -110.32 | -3.23 |
| Jared Cook | TE | 155 | 132.4 | 8.28 | -43.42 | -3.27 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 53.9 | 170.3 | 10.02 | -31.52 | -3.38 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | UND | 138.3 | 8.14 | -37.52 | -3.41 |
| Cole Beasley | WR | 150.9 | 159.3 | 9.96 | -42.52 | -3.44 |
| Van Jefferson | WR | UND | 168.2 | 9.89 | -33.62 | -3.51 |
| C.J. Uzomah | TE | UND | 128.3 | 8.02 | -47.52 | -3.53 |
| D’Onta Foreman | RB | UND | 93.9 | 10.43 | -99.13 | -3.59 |
| A.J. Green | WR | 156.6 | 156.8 | 9.8 | -45.02 | -3.60 |
| Tim Patrick | WR | UND | 156.4 | 9.78 | -45.42 | -3.62 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | 156.6 | 117.8 | 7.85 | -58.02 | -3.70 |
| Myles Gaskin | RB | 45.7 | 173.6 | 10.21 | -19.43 | -3.81 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | UND | 142.5 | 9.5 | -59.32 | -3.90 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | UND | 131.7 | 9.41 | -70.12 | -3.99 |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | 96.1 | 268.4 | 15.79 | -43.90 | -4.03 |
| K.J. Osborn | WR | UND | 158.5 | 9.32 | -43.32 | -4.08 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | UND | 147.8 | 9.24 | -54.02 | -4.16 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | WR | 69 | 129.1 | 9.22 | -72.72 | -4.18 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | 38.7 | 117.2 | 9.77 | -75.83 | -4.25 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | UND | 109.7 | 9.14 | -92.12 | -4.26 |
| James O’Shaughnessy | TE | UND | 50.4 | 7.2 | -125.42 | -4.35 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | UND | 121.2 | 7.13 | -54.62 | -4.42 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 121.3 | 114.9 | 9.58 | -78.13 | -4.44 |
| Marquez Callaway | WR | 90.5 | 151.8 | 8.93 | -50.02 | -4.47 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 85.7 | 150.2 | 8.84 | -51.62 | -4.56 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | UND | 258 | 15.18 | -54.30 | -4.64 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | UND | 227.5 | 15.17 | -84.80 | -4.65 |
| Dan Arnold | TE | UND | 75.8 | 6.89 | -100.02 | -4.66 |
| Derek Carr | QB | UND | 257 | 15.12 | -55.30 | -4.70 |
| Deonte Harris | WR | UND | 113.1 | 8.7 | -88.72 | -4.70 |
| Evan Engram | TE | 150.9 | 102.5 | 6.83 | -73.32 | -4.72 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | UND | 103.5 | 8.63 | -98.32 | -4.77 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | 92 | 119.8 | 9.22 | -73.23 | -4.80 |
| David Njoku | TE | UND | 107.6 | 6.73 | -68.22 | -4.82 |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | UND | 146.6 | 9.16 | -46.43 | -4.86 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | 64.1 | 85 | 8.5 | -116.82 | -4.90 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | RB | UND | 72.7 | 9.09 | -120.33 | -4.93 |
| Devontae Booker | RB | 155.5 | 144.1 | 9.01 | -48.93 | -5.01 |
| Jordan Howard | RB | UND | 62.5 | 8.93 | -130.53 | -5.09 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | 100 | 140.9 | 8.29 | -60.92 | -5.11 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | UND | 132.4 | 8.28 | -69.42 | -5.12 |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | UND | 82.4 | 8.24 | -119.42 | -5.16 |
| Robby Anderson | WR | 75 | 138.5 | 8.15 | -63.32 | -5.25 |
| Robert Tonyan | TE | UND | 50.4 | 6.3 | -125.42 | -5.25 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | QB | UND | 202.7 | 14.48 | -109.60 | -5.34 |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | UND | 55.8 | 6.2 | -120.02 | -5.35 |
| Julio Jones | WR | 46 | 80.4 | 8.04 | -121.42 | -5.36 |
| Sony Michel | RB | 93.4 | 146.3 | 8.61 | -46.73 | -5.41 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | WR | UND | 87.7 | 7.97 | -114.12 | -5.43 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | 85.9 | 127 | 7.94 | -74.82 | -5.46 |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | 102.9 | 102.5 | 8.54 | -90.53 | -5.48 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | UND | 87 | 7.91 | -114.82 | -5.49 |
| Gabriel Davis | WR | 144.3 | 125.9 | 7.87 | -75.92 | -5.53 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | UND | 109.7 | 7.84 | -92.12 | -5.56 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | 159.7 | 93.6 | 7.8 | -108.22 | -5.60 |
| Rondale Moore | WR | 146.4 | 109.1 | 7.79 | -92.72 | -5.61 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | UND | 92.5 | 5.78 | -83.32 | -5.77 |
| Jamal Agnew | WR | UND | 76 | 7.6 | -125.82 | -5.80 |
| Braxton Berrios | WR | UND | 121.1 | 7.57 | -80.72 | -5.83 |
| Mike Davis | RB | 43.1 | 138.2 | 8.13 | -54.83 | -5.89 |
| Taylor Heinicke | QB | UND | 222.9 | 13.93 | -89.40 | -5.89 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 127.6 | 137.6 | 8.09 | -55.43 | -5.93 |
| Zack Moss | RB | 83.8 | 105.2 | 8.09 | -87.83 | -5.93 |
| Jared Goff | QB | UND | 194.5 | 13.89 | -117.80 | -5.93 |
Negative numbers refer to players who finished below the replacement-level average.
Observations: 2021’s Fantasy Football MVPs
I wrote the same study last year – below is the change in scoring at each position.
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Season Change | -16.39 | 5.68 | -0.32 | 8.54 |
| Per Game Change | -2.39 | -0.22 | -0.61 | 0 |
After a huge year for scoring in 2020, quarterback scoring fell in 2021. The rest of the changes are negligible and difficult to draw conclusions from. Bizarrely, the top 18 tight ends per game had the exact same scoring average as 2020.
In terms of the player results from the table above, Cooper Kupp was 2021’s MVP. Averaging an impressive 12.45 points above average per game, he helped his owners amass 237.7 fantasy points above average over the course of the season. The most incredible part is his ADP landed him in the middle of the 4th round.
Jonathan Taylor was the second most valuable player for the entire season, finishing with 180.1 fantasy points above his positional baseline. Amazingly Taylor was also selected after the first round, meaning in 12-team leagues, each owner had an opportunity to select the two best candidates for 2021’s fantasy football MVP.
In terms of points above average per game, Derrick Henry finished as the second most valuable. Unfortunately, his season was cut short after eight games, but Henry was dominating before going down.
Davante Adams finished third in per-game points above average and Deebo Samuel finished fifth (behind Jonathan Taylor). Incredibly, in terms of per-game scoring, three wide receivers finished in the top five. If you sort by points above average for the whole season, Justin Jefferson makes four of the top six players wide receivers.
After sliding to the fifth round in drafts, Mark Andrews finishes as the most valuable tight end and 7th most valuable player when evaluating by either season or per game. Andrews’ numbers show what a significant advantage it is to have the league’s best tight end.
Using the season-long PAA, some of the best value picks include Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel, James Conner, Jaylen Waddle, Leonard Fournette, Michael Pittman, and Jamaar Chase. Interestingly, this group includes two rookie wide receivers.
You can toggle between the “PAA S” and “PAA PG” above to see who were the most valuable players last year.