Half of this group, at most, will make the playoffs. Each team has a strong case to pull it off.
The Steelers and Colts are similar, as stable organizations with mostly well-built rosters and a big question at quarterback. I’d take 2021 Ben Roethlisberger over 2021 Carson Wentz, but I also have extreme faith in Frank Reich making Indy’s offense work. Between the retirement of left tackle Anthony Castonzo and the downgrade at quarterback, though, a step back is possible. The same is true for the Titans, who lost play caller Arthur Smith and playmakers Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. Coach Mike Vrabel and general manager Jon Robinson have struggled to build a championship defense.
Justin Herbert’s presence makes the Chargers difficult to rank any lower. New head coach Brandon Staley has a ton to work with on defense, too. By the time the season starts, I’ll be ready to fully overrate the Chargers even more. Again.
I’m not buying that the Patriots’ problems are solved just yet. They improved one of the most talent-poor rosters in football, but it’s still average overall. Sprinkle in some great coaching and mediocre quarterback play, and they still look middle-of-the-pack unless the draft goes better than it has over the last three years. The Dolphins made me look dumb in this exercise a year ago because I didn’t see the roster talent. Brian Flores has proven he’s as good at coaching a squad that is greater than the sum of its parts as he is at changing coordinators. Folks are way too down, too quickly on Tua Tagovailoa.
The final two teams in this tier are both from the AFC West and both have playoff potential, despite differing offseasons. The Raiders took a clear step back on offense and are hoping a coaching change can fix a lackluster defense. The Broncos’ defense is loaded, and there are enough offensive playmakers to make Denver fun to watch if Drew Lock can shoot straight. I’d love to see the Broncos add Teddy Bridgewater on the cheap because this team only needs replacement-level quarterback play to have a winning record. (Justin Fields would be an even better idea.)
This tier is the soft middle of the NFL, where every team’s fans believe they are going to make the playoffs and every other team’s fans end up ornery.