Pool play is over, the brackets have been published and it is now possible to chart out the steps required for Olympic gold. Every match is full of danger for the medal favorites, but some have trickier paths than others. Missteps in pool play set up some early women’s clashes. Only two of the four pretournament favorites will make the semifinals. That opens the door for some mild or even major surprises on the Olympic podium. The men’s bracket is more balanced with all the pretournament favorites kept separated until the semifinals.
The first round matches get started Sunday morning in Tokyo and run for two days. The majority of Sunday’s matches are between women’s teams with the men taking most of the spotlight on Monday.
Beachvolley Vikings set up for revenge
When Anders Mol and Christian Sorum lost their final Pool A match against Konstantin Semenov & Ilya Leshukov, that could have sent the men’s bracket into chaos. Instead, the draw put them in the same quadrant they would have been in had they won. It also sets up a possible revenge match between Norway and the Russians in the second round.
The Norwegians have a much tougher start to the knockout round and may not get a chance for payback. They meet Rio bronze medalists and recent FIVB world tour gold medalists Alexander Brouwer & Robert Meeuwsen from The Netherlands. That isn’t a draw either team wanted, but Sorum and Mol’s recent poor form makes this a hard one to handicap. Brouwer and Meeuwsen took second in Pool E, beating Phil Dalhausser and Nick Lucena to start their Olympic campaign but losing to Alison and Alvaro to end pool play. Semenov & Leshukov have to get through the Grimalt cousins. The Chileans have struggled all year, but kept their Olympics alive with their current two match winning streak. A win for Chile would be a huge surprise based on current form.
A maximum of one medal for Brazil’s men
Both of Brazil’s men took care of business in pool play winning their pools and five of six matches. Their success in pools D and E mean a possible quarterfinal clash for Evandro & Bruno and Alison & Alvaro. Only one of the gold medal partners from Rio, Alison and Bruno can add to their Olympic medal collection. Alison also has a silver medal from London, while Evandro and Alvaro are looking for their first Olympic hardware.
For them to meet, they will have to win first round matches against teams that caused all kinds of problems in Pool B. Evandro and Bruno face Edgars Tocs and Martins Plavins from Latvia. The Latvians sent shockwaves through the tournament by beating Russian World Champions Viacheslav Krasilnikov & Oleg Stoyanovskiy in Pool B. They lost the final match of pool play to Mexico’s Josue Gaxiola & Jose Rubio who came two points short of beating the World Champs themselves. Both teams have shown they can deliver a surprise on the big stage, so aquarterfinal matchup between the Brazilians is far from guaranteed.
Cherif and Ahmed – through legends to become legends
Cherif and Ahmed seem destined for glory this year. But in a single elimination tournament, destiny can get derailed in the blink of an eye. Their match against legend Phil Dalhausser will determine whether they continue their pursuit of gold or go home with a disappointing 9th place finish. This is Phil’s last Olympics, and I don’t think he is ready to call it quits yet. The ultra-athletic Qataris present all kinds of problems for the Americans, but if it turns into a battle of side outs that hinges on some timely blocks, few men get bigger blocks than Dalhausser. Nick’s ability to get his shots to fall with the lighting fast Ahmed Tijan chasing them down may be the key to this one.
If Qatar get past the Americans they will face either Rio silver medalists Daniele Lupo & Paolo Nicolai or top Polish pair Grzegorz Fijalek & Michal Bryl. Nicolai and Lupo look better than they have in years this week, while Bryl and Fijalek’s only blemish in Tokyo is a loss to Evandro and Bruno.
The real lucky losers
The final quadrant of the men’s bracket is made up teams that all lost at least once in Tokyo. Viacheslav Krasilnikov & Oleg Stoyanovskiy lost four sets and one match in pool play but still came out on top of their group. They start the knockouts against Spain’s Pablo Herrera & Adrián Gavira who were caught up in Pool A’s Mol/Sorum, Semenov/Leshukov crossfire. The experienced Spaniards won their lucky loser match yesterday to continue. The other match is between impressive new American pairing Tri Bourne & Jake Gibb and 2019 World Championship runners up Julius Thole & Clemens Wickler. Bourne and Gibb lost in pool play to Cherif and Ahemd but were perfect in a difficult group before that. Thole and Wickler lost to Nicolia and Lupo in Pool F but finished second in their group. The makeup of this pool guarantees that at least one semifinalist will have tasted defeat in Tokyo.
Crowded quadrant full of Rio medalists
Laura Ludwig, Agatha Bednarczuk and April Ross all stood on the podium at Rio 2016. At most one of them will be able to make it twice in a row. They all find themselves in the same quadrant along with Cuba’s Leila Martinez Ortega and Lidianny Echeverria. America battle Cuba first. April and Alix have been in complete control in Tokyo so far, dropping only one set in pool play. Leila and Lidy started slowly but won two do or die matches to make it this far. They are gaining steam and could present a much bigger problem for the American’s than you would expect out of a team that finished 3rd in their pool.
Agatha and Duda find themselves battling Ludwing and Kozuch. If they had won their pool, things would be much easier. But instead they find themselves facing two difficult matches to make the semifinals. They have been the inform team of 2021 and three of their FIVB medals this year followed losses in pool play. If they take a similar path to medals in Tokyo, they will eliminate some big names on the way. Laura and Maggie lost one of the hardest fought matches of the tournament against Switzerland’s Nina Betschart & Tanja Huberli (25-23, 20-22, 14-16) in pool play. Honestly, they haven’t looked great in a long time and their play in Tokyo to date is no exception.
Australia slip leads to possible quarterfinal date with Canada
Taliqua Clancy & Mariafe Artacho didn’t win their pool either and that puts them into a quadrant with World Champions Sarah Pavan and Melissa Humana-Parades. The Canadians did not lose a set in the toughest women’s pool and are big favorites to continue their untouchable status against Spain’s Elsa Baquerizo McMillan & Liliana Fernández Steiner. Pavan and Humana-Parades have only had one close set, such has their dominance been in Tokyo so far. There are four matches to go, but they look like strong candidates to pick up the World Championships – Olympic Gold Medal double.
The Australians have to get past impressive Chinese pair Xinxin Wang & Chen Xue if they want a chance to challenge Canada. The Chinese pair pulled off two big wins in pool play against Elsa and Liliana and Sanne Keizer & Madelein Meppelink and with Chen Xue’s Olympic experience she won’t be intimidated at all. Surprisingly the Canadian and Australian teams haven’t played against each other since 2018.
Swiss women face off in first round
Nina Betschart & Tanja Hüberli won Pool F and Anouk Vergé-Dépré & Joana Heidrich finished second to Pavan & Humana-Paredes in Pool A. The draw puts both Swiss teams head to head to start the elimination rounds. These teams obviously know each other very well and would have rather met much later in the tournament. Even though Anouk and Joana finished lower in their pool, they have looked like the more impressive pair in Tokyo so far.
Fan Wang & Xinyi Xia’s demolition of Agatha & Duda clinched Pool C for China. In the knockout round they have the chance to deal an even bigger blow to Brazil as they start with Ana Patricia Ramos & Rebecca Silva. Ana Patricia and Rebecca look extremely vulnerable after two losses in pool play which featured many self inflicted wounds.
Someone’s going to the semifinals
The final quadrant features four women’s teams that had high hopes entering Tokyo, but probably needed at least one big upset to make the semifinals. Now Kelly Claes & Sarah Sponcil, Nadezda Makroguzova & Svetlana Kholomina, Brandie Wilkerson & Heather Bansley and Tina Graudina & Anastasija Kravcenoka find themselves two wins from the semis with none of the usual giants blocking their paths.
The American and Russian pairs had great 2021 seasons, but it seemed like there were other teams ahead of them in the line for Tokyo medals. They are young up and comers that seemed much more likely to podium in Paris. Surely this is one Olympics too soon for the Latvians, too. The Canadians were the world’s number one team for a while in 2018, but that was a very long time ago. Hasn’t their ship already sailed? Whether we thought it was too early or too late, one of these teams is going to be playing in a medal match on August 6th.
Claes and Sponcil face Wilkerson and Bansley in a battle of North America’s second teams. The winner of this match could give their country a chance at having two teams in the semifinals. Latvia and Russia met in the European U22 Championships in 2018. Makroguzova & Kholomina came out on top of that one and won their only head to head match on the senior tour. I’m expecting to see a USA vs ROC quarterfinal clash, but these are going to be good first round matches.