A dark cloud hangs over Formula One as the category reaches its most highly-anticipated year in generations.
Lewis Hamilton, Formula One’s biggest figure of the past 15 years, and a chief protagonist in one of its greatest-ever seasons, may not race on.
Hamilton hasn’t been heard from since slipping out the back door in December following the epic Abu Dhabi title-decider that saw Max Verstappen controversially claim the world championship.
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He no longer follows anyone on social media, and hasn’t posted anything since completing qualifying in Abu Dhabi on December 12.
Verstappen went on to deny Hamilton the title in a calamitous conclusion that the seven-time world champion described as being “manipulated” by officials.
After the race, Hamilton said “we’ll see about next year”, and disappeared into the night.
We haven’t heard anything from him since.
The wide belief is that Hamilton will race on next year, but the dispiriting end to 2021, and the 37-year-old’s long-running silence, have clouded his future.
Hamilton in July inked a two-year deal that takes him to the end of 2023 and will net him a reported £40 million (A$75.6m) for each season.
But Mercedes boss Toto Wolff said before Christmas that Hamilton had given him no assurances that he would honour the mega deal following the events of Abu Dhabi.
There is the possibility that Hamilton is simply removing himself from the F1 world to clear his head before another gruelling campaign, which begins in Bahrain on March 18.
By the same token, we must acknowledge the disillusionment of Hamilton, whose Instagram bio says he’s still “constantly searching for my purpose”.
Former F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone predicted before Christmas that Hamilton would retire from F1 after he was denied an eighth world title.
“I don’t think he is coming back, I think he will not race next year,” Ecclestone told Blick.
“His disappointment in Abu Dhabi was too big and I understand him. Now, tied for seven titles with Michael Schumacher, it is the perfect time for him to fulfil his dream and be a fashion entrepreneur.”
Ecclestone added that Hamilton “could only lose” this season as wide-sweeping regulation changes, and the arrival of young gun George Russell at Mercedes, threatens his longstanding dominance.
Last week, McLaren chief Zak Brown said he “wouldn’t be shocked if Lewis stopped”.
Meanwhile, Wolff said in the days after Abu Dhabi that he hoped Hamilton would return to F1, but there were no guarantees.
“I would very much hope that Lewis continues racing because he’s the greatest driver of all time,” Wolff said.
“I think as a racer his heart will say ‘I need to continue’ because he’s at the peak of his game. But we have to overcome the pain that was caused upon him on Sunday.”
Wolff separately told Kronen Zeitung: “It would be a disgrace for the whole of F1 if the best driver decided to retire because of outrageous decisions.”
In Abu Dhabi, Hamilton was cruising to a record-breaking eighth world title before a late safety car was called, allowing Verstappen to pit for fresh tyres and re-join the queue.
In an unprecedented decision, FIA race director Michael Masi allowed only the five lapped drivers between Verstappen and Hamilton to unlap themselves, thus clearing the stage for a one-lap shootout between the title challengers.
Hamilton was effectively a sitting duck having not stopped for fresh tyres to protect his track position, while Masi has come under heavy fire for what has been described as a “freestyle” interpretation of the rules.
Whether Hamilton has made peace with the events is unclear.
Mercedes certainly hasn’t, and continues to challenge the FIA’s ruling to this day despite having its protest rejected in the immediate aftermath.
A senior source told the BBC earlier this month that in seeking justice, Mercedes had reached a quid pro quo deal with the FIA that would see Masi and head of single-seater technical matters Nikolas Tombazis sacked for 2022.
Mecedes deny the report, but Wolff said last month that the team would continue to “hold the FIA to account”.
The FIA has now begun a fresh, formal investigation into the race earlier this month and is expected to present its findings by the next World Motor Sport Council meeting on February 3.
Some believe Hamilton’s silence, and threat to quit, are power moves to apply pressure on the investigation, with the sackings of Masi and Tombazis believe to be desirable outcomes.
‘PART OF THE DRAMA’
F1 has waited more than a decade to have a rivalry like Hamilton and Verstappen’s to materialise, while their 2021 duel is one of the greatest of all-time.
To not have a rematch in 2022 is a nightmare scenario F1 cannot afford to have.
The 2022 season will be the first to involve significant changes from owners Liberty Media, who are aiming to create a more even competition from front-to-back through a raft of technical changes to cars and a salary cap.
While F1 operates under the rules of the FIA, it’s Liberty Media who will be largely judged on what happens next.
Having Hamilton and Verstappen renew their rivalry would be a marketing dream, virtually guaranteeing widespread buy-in for the season’s opening stages.
At its core, F1 is the pinnacle of motorsport and not mere entertainment. But the ideal scenario for Liberty Media – who opened F1’s doors to Netflix docuseries Drive To Survive – is for it to be both.
Some claim that what happened in Abu Dhabi, however, is a blurring of those lines which Hamilton won’t stand for.
One F1 insider told The Telegraph this month that the doubt over Hamilton’s future was simply “all for show” and being used as leverage.
“It’s all part of the drama,” an insider told the publication. “The truth is Lewis is going to have a super competitive car this year and he’s got 50 million reasons for staying (the rough pound-value of his contract).
“Anyway, if he was going to retire he’d have said it by now wouldn’t he? Otherwise he’s just going to f**k the team because they’ve got no options.”
The lack of options mentioned relates to Mercedes’ decision to allow Valtteri Bottas to join Alfa Romeo after five seasons as Hamilton’s teammate.
In his place comes 23-year-old Russell, while the sport’s other big guns — such as Red Bull’s Verstappen and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc — are already locked into contracts for at least the next two seasons.
Should Hamilton walk out on his own contract, it would leave Mercedes scrambling to fill his spot, and likely fielding a relatively inexperienced line-up this season.
With the big names locked up, the most likely replacement would be Esteban Ocon, who was once on the Mercedes development program before signing a three-year contract with Alpine in June.
Despite the deal, it’s understood that Ocon’s connections with Mercedes haven’t been completely severed, and a pathway remains for him to re-join the team.
Should that not materialise, Mercedes would have little choice but to promote 26-year-old reserve driver Nyck de Vries as a last-minute option. Otherwise, Mercedes would need to expand the net to target former drivers, such as Aston Martin reserve Nico Hulkenberg, or the team’s Formula E driver Stoffel Vandoorne.
Whether Hamilton has a clause in his deal that would allow him to walk away and push Mercedes into that corner is unclear.
An unnamed source close to Mercedes told The Telegraph that the team was expecting Hamilton to walk away from F1 had he won in Abu Dhabi instead.
That would suggest Hamilton does have exit clauses included in his contract, but it’s unknown if he has any available to him now.
Former F1 driver David Coulthard believes the debate is for nothing, saying Hamilton isn’t as hurt as many have suggested, and will return for pre-season testing next month.
“I don’t think Abu Dhabi changes anything,” he told The Telegraph. “Of course he would have liked to have won. And I think he was very emotional, as anyone would be under the circumstances.
“But I think the reality is the shock was probably far less for him than it would have been for Toto, or the rest of the team, or his fans.”
Coulthard and fellow ex-driver Karun Chandhok also don’t buy the suggestion of Hamilton running away from a fight with Russell.
Coulthard said that Russell is still a “puppy and puppies occasionally pee on the carpet”, while Chandhok said that Hamilton is still “at the peak of his ability”.
Russell could yet prove them wrong, but only if Hamilton is willing to give him the chance to do so.
Whether he does or not remains F1’s single greatest unknown as the 2022 season rapidly approaches.