The next big event for professional football fans now that the NFL’s season is well in the rearview mirror is the 2021 NFL draft, starting on April 29. As sports enthusiasts are wont to do, the fervor is steadily rising as the date approaches, despite the trammels presented by the ongoing COVID pandemic.
For Florida Gators fans, this spring represents the first time in over a decade since an offensive skill player is projected to be selected in the first round of the draft. In fact, the Gator Nation has two potential opening-round prospects this year in Mackey Award-winning tight end Kyle Pitts — who also finished 10th in the Heisman Trophy vote — as well as the human joystick himself Kadarius Toney, who is listed as a wide receiver but is capable of playing multiple positions on offense.
Cynthia Frelund at NFL.com joined her peers and took her first stab at mocking the 2021 draft Tuesday, which like every other mock included the above-named players. Here is a brief explanation of how she determined her selections.
My analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team’s potential to win as many games as possible in 2021.
With that in mind, here is a look at where Frelund believes those two prolific former Gators are destined to be taken on April 29.
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I’m assuming here that a certain 30-year-old tight end will not be on the Eagles’ roster for the 2021 season — if Zach Ertz sticks in Philly, that will throw this projection off. Otherwise, my model likes Pitts as a sure-handed, high-probability pass-catcher. On snaps where Pitts ran routes, he displayed a faster burst (that is, the time it takes him to travel 2 yards from the line of scrimmage) than all but three FBS wide receivers in 2020.