SEATTLE — The Seattle Seahawks experienced life without quarterback Russell Wilson for the first time in 2021.
It didn’t go well.
And it didn’t get better when he returned from the broken finger that marked the most significant injury of his 10-year career. By the time Wilson started playing like himself again, the Seahawks were in too deep of a hole to have any chance in a loaded division that sent three teams to the playoffs — including the Super Bowl LVI champion Los Angeles Rams.
Who knows how the Seahawks’ 7-10 season would’ve gone had Wilson not suffered a fracture and tendon rupture on the middle finger of his throwing hand in Week 5. They lost that game after Geno Smith took over and went 1-2 in his three starts. Wilson made a remarkably speedy return from surgery but wasn’t himself, his uncharacteristic misfires suggesting his finger wasn’t ready. Seattle lost his first three games back to fall to 3-8, ending any hope of another playoff run.
Surely, they would have fared much better than 1-6 in that stretch with a healthy Wilson.
Then again, their offense was inexplicably bad on third down before his injury and remained that way for much of Shane Waldron’s first season as offensive coordinator. Meanwhile, their defense couldn’t generate enough pressure or takeaways even after rebounding from another historically poor start. Coordinator Ken Norton Jr. and defensive passing-game coordinator Andre Curtis were fired as a result.
Coach Pete Carroll — whose job security came into question — also parted with offensive line coach Mike Solari after the Seahawks ended their worst season in more than a decade.
Projected salary-cap space: $38.49 million
Top free agents: LT Duane Brown, RT Brandon Shell, C Ethan Pocic, RB Rashaad Penny, RB Alex Collins, TE Gerald Everett, TE Will Dissly, FS Quandre Diggs, CB D.J. Reed, CB Sidney Jones IV, DE Rasheem Green, DT Al Woods
Potential cut candidates: Linebacker Bobby Wagner had another highly productive season en route to his eighth career Pro Bowl. But the Seahawks might decide he isn’t making enough impact plays to justify the non-guaranteed $16.6 million he’ll make and the $20.35 million he’ll count against the cap in the final year of his deal, when he’ll be 32. The longtime defensive captain and six-time first-team All-Pro acknowledged his uncertain future late in the season and later said he’s optimistic about returning in 2022. If so, it seems likely that it will be on something other than his current deal. Running back Chris Carson is coming off neck surgery, but the Seahawks said they expect him to make a full recovery for 2022 and wouldn’t save much against the cap by releasing him.
The big question: Is Wilson staying put? A trade this offseason seems unlikely for several reasons, but not out of the question. The tensions that boiled over last offseason have cooled down, so it does not seem as though the relationship has become unworkable. That puts the Seahawks in position to drive a hard bargain like they did last offseason, when they had legitimate trade talks with the Chicago Bears.
It might take three first-round picks to get their attention, and most importantly, any offer would have to give the Seahawks a clear path to a replacement who could help them win a Super Bowl. But they probably don’t think that guy exists in such a weak quarterback draft, nor is it likely that they see him sitting on the trade block. For his part, Wilson said he hopes to stay in Seattle. But his non-definitive wording — he has a no-trade clause and could guarantee he stays put — suggests he’s uncertain how he’ll feel later. And Carroll has strongly hinted the Seahawks will again listen to trade offers. So you never know.
What you need to know: Diggs is the Seahawks’ top free agent. He led the team with five interceptions, matching his total from 2020 as he was named to his second straight Pro Bowl. His work patrolling the back end of their defense was a big reason Seattle was one of the best teams at limiting explosive passing plays. He might have been the Seahawks’ MVP in 2021. But Diggs’ situation is complicated by a few factors. He’s coming off a broken fibula and dislocated ankle from Week 18. And even before that, it wasn’t certain the Seahawks would pay him considering they declined to give him the extension he wanted last year. That reluctance may have been tied to the megadeal they eventually gave fellow safety Jamal Adams. Losing Diggs would be a big blow to a defense that is already short on players who can create turnovers.
Best-case scenario for the offseason: There are the obvious checklist items: upgrading their O-line and pass rush, re-signing Diggs and adding another ballhawk on defense, etc. They also need Waldron and defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt to come up with scheme-related fixes. But the Seahawks could also use help from the rest of the NFC West, and if we’re talking best-case scenarios, how about Aaron Donald and/or Sean McVay walking away from the Rams?
Worst-case scenario for the offseason: The absolute worst-case scenario would be getting fleeced in a Wilson trade, ushering in a full-on rebuild. But that’s not going to happen. Still, their usual approaches to free agency (where they avoid megadeals in favor of value additions) and the draft (where they often trade back to add picks) would backfire if they fail to land enough impact players to keep up with the rest of the NFC West.
Early look at the NFL draft, from ESPN analyst Jordan Reid: Without a first-round pick because of the Jamal Adams trade, there are still plenty of routes general manager John Schneider could opt to take. Regardless of what happens with Duane Brown, the Seahawks should look to address offensive tackle. They have to continue to build the offensive line. Depth along the defensive line is another spot that needs to be upgraded.
Top needs: OT, EDGE, CB
Top pick: No. 41