The Patriots did so much work during free agency — bringing in some 10 players who could start or play meaningful roles this season — that it’s been tough to keep up, or at least figure out how the pieces are going to fit into the larger picture.
The easy math is, the Patriots have 79 players on their roster (Patrick Chung is the 80th at the moment) when 90 is the limit. The team has 10 draft picks. Some think this means the Patriots could package some of their picks — perhaps up to get a quarterback, or out for picks in 2022.
That can’t totally be dismissed. The roster certainly has one huge gaping hole at quarterback, so that makes sense. And with the 2020 college football season and scouting process largely upended, maybe kicking the evaluation can down the road so you can make better decisions with more information (there are zero in-person interviews with the pro days) might not be the worst idea.
But when you dig deeper into the roster — and account for the fact the Patriots have 28 unrestricted free agents in 2022, including 12 who have or figure to get major minutes this season — you realize there’s some fat when it comes to the final 53-man roster and you could see a path to least an additional seven roster spots. That would give the Patriots plenty of room to sign a robust draft class (doubt they use all 10 this year) and a healthy crop of undrafted free agents.
And the areas left open would seem to match up well where the Patriots are expected to be looking for help — now or down the line — in the draft.
Let’s start with my depth chart on both sides of the ball.
A couple of notes/observations after going through this exercise:
- I think the Patriots are going to be a base 3-4 team … but don’t get too riled up about that.
- First of all, they have way more good/serviceable interior linemen than they do standup linebackers, and I think the surprising (ill-conceived? … he might be the new Rex Burkhead as a questionable player Bill Belichick loves and overpays) re-signing of Deatrich Wise was a bit of a tip-off on this because he (at least in Belichick’s mind) gives them coverage in a number of positions.
- When I posed the question to sources, “Who the hell is going to play next to Hightower?” I got a few answers. “We’ll see.” “It’s not really going to matter.”
- Why it’s not going to matter is the key to this. “Nobody plays base anymore,” was one response. It’s no secret that teams play over 60 percent of their defense out of nickel and dime. But how you play subpackage is the vital thing. And the Patriots were crappy at it last year. Why? Because they couldn’t stop the run.
- Enter a line two-deep of Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, Henry Anderson, Byron Cowart, Montravius Adams and (for now) Akeem Spence (I think Adams and/or Spence are easily subbed out for one or two line draft pick). There will be no running.
- That means the opposing offenses should be in long yardage often, which means the Patriots will really be a sub base defense, which is where I think they want to be with all four safeties — Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger (linebacker) and Jalen Mills on the field a lot.
- For giggles, here’s the rest of the projected primary sub group: Gilmore, Jackson, Jones; Van Noy, Judon, Cowart, Wise.
- Offensively, the Patriots are going to be a handful with different personnel and alignment groupings. The Patriots will have two TEs, two different FBs, and the ability to go with 4 WRs depending on the game situation.
Yes, 2022 free agency should be alarming to you, especially when you consider the Patriots have $163,602,178 allocated to just 37 players next year, and the cap isn’t supposed to shoot up much past $200 million next year.
Among the players that are not on that cap because they are set to become unrestricted free agents:
Stephon Gilmore, starting CB
Devin McCourty, starting FS/1st round pick
Trent Brown, starting RT/LT
Dont’a Hightower, starting MLB/1st round pick
Julian Edelman, starting SWR
Cam Newton, starting QB (today)
Adrian Phillips, starting SS
Isaiah Wynn, starting LT/1st round pick
James White, starting Pass RB
Sony Michel, starting-ish RB/1st round pick
Gulp.
That’s 10 big-time starters on this team, without many ready-made replacements currently on the roster, although that can obviously change if younger players take a big step. For example, was anyone talking about Damien Harris as a starter at this point last year? Players and teams are never static, especially from one year to the next, let alone with Covid.
The replacements (on the roster, not necessarily in their spot) today:
Gilmore: D’Angelo Ross
McCourty: Jalen Mills
Brown: Justin Herron
Hightower: Uche?
Edelman: Meyers
Newton: Stidham
Phillips: Dugger
Wynn: None.
White: None.
Michel: None.
I bolded the three spots I feel somewhat confident about, and Mills for McCourty is a big reach. That means seven/eight starters don’t have a ready-made replacement or good understudy on the roster.
This is where the Patriots’ draft comes in.
But before we get to this, let’s give you our initial run through A VERY ROUGH DRAFT of an initial 53. It actually turns out to be 46 players I think are vital for this season right now.
Before I show you this list, keep in mind this is in no way a projection, and I’m not advocating for any of these players to be cut/traded/whatever. It’s merely an exercise to show you where there’s some flexibility on this roster everyone thinks has no room on it.
It’s not exact. The Patriots aren’t going to go with just four receivers and four cornerbacks. But they could add there in the draft, which leads to the last six/seven out for the sake of this exercise:
Notes on these:
- Unless Winovich moves to stand-up linebacker, which I’m all for trying because I think he can do it if the coaches give him some leash, I don’t see where he ever plays outside of some weird/funky personnel matchups against specific opponents. You combine that with the coaches not trusting him, might be time to move him and bring in more of a Patriots-type player to understudy on the edge to take over for Van Noy in ’22 or ’23.
- I don’t see where Jennings fits, unless he’s the new Jermaine Cunnigham who just sticks around due to draft status. I’d rather move on and get a fast, impactful linebacker.
- Bentley had his chance. Need more speed.
- Asiasi will probably stick, but now he’s behind two studs who are not leaving anytime soon. Find someone who liked him in the draft, and start the TE succession plan in the ’22 draft.
- No definitive news on Edelman, but people around the team don’t talk about him much, and the consensus is they will help him give it one more go elsewhere (Tampa?), or he’ll retire.
- The rest are nice depth, but might not be needed.
- This is the cap space gained from just those moves:
The cut/trade list, combined with the impending free agency leaves the following shopping list for the draft:
Quarterback (we already built a drafted QB into the 46)
Nose tackle
Receiver
Linebacker
Edge
Running back
Pass RB
Offensive tackle
Seven draft picks sounds about right to me. Leaves the team about 10 undrafted players.
The most important thing is this gives the Patriots’ roster a much more balanced look when it comes to adding young players where help could be needed now or in the very near future. That’s usually how Belichick approaches the draft.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. The Patriots’ 2022 free-agent situation is why I don’t think the team has completely up on Jimmy Garoppolo coming loose at some point (and the fact that the 49ers let it leak this week they want a first-round pick in return — teams always ask high first — means they’re listening). I find it hard to believe the Patriots are going to let that many franchise warriors walk after this season, which means some extensions could be coming. Devin McCourty, Dont’a Hightower and Shaq Mason are the prime candidates, with Stephon Gilmore a wild-card. The first three would free up some $16 million in space, and Gilmore another $5 million. That’s easily enough money to fit Garoppolo under the cap at the time of a deal, and then they’d recoup a bunch back after restructuring him following the trade.
2. Everyone wants to know what Robert Kraft meant when he said, “I don’t feel like we’ve done the greatest job (drafting) the last few years and I really hope and believe I’ve seen a different approach this year.” Different approach? I wouldn’t get too excited, after asking around. Mostly it’s just new faces being elevated after Nick Caserio left for Houston. The only meaningful change will be if Belichick sticks with the draft board and plan than he has in recent years. The rest doesn’t matter if Belichick just stays the same. It’s just rearranging the furniture.
3. The star of Gonzaga’s thrilling win over UCLA on Saturday night in the Final Four was Jalen Suggs — who was also named Minnesota’s Mr. Football as a dual-threat QB — and there is a Terrell Suggs connection. Suggs’ father is Larry Suggs, who is a second cousins of Terrell. Terrell was a two-sport star in Minnesota as well, and his QB was Joe Mauer of the Twins.
4. I know some of you are curious about the new NFL TV package, specifically the CBS/FOX split. Here’s what John Ourand of the Sports Business Journal had to say about it: “Starting in ‘23, Fox and CBS will identify a specific number of teams that it wants to carry for a specific minimum of games. It is not known how many teams or games are part of this process, which will occur at some point before the official schedule release. Because it has the NFC package, Fox will only pick NFC teams, which will mean that Fox is likely to carry more Cowboys and Packers games than other networks. CBS will pick AFC teams, which, at least in the near term, means a heavy dose of the Chiefs and Steelers. Those games will come from anywhere on the schedule. There will be no such thing as a traditional Fox-NFC or CBS-AFC game as in years past. “
5. In case you’re interested, Aaron Rodgers starts a two-week stint hosting Jeopardy! on Monday. Just what he needed, a chance to have all the answers in front of a studio audience. I bet he enjoyed this very much.
