NFL free agency grades – The Athletic

With NFL free agency set to begin on March 17, this is where you can find analysis of every noteworthy deal that is signed. Some major agreements have been reached well in advance. Many of the top 150 free agents available are set to join the list — and report cards — soon.

March 9

The Bucs’ $25 million deal with Lavonte David

The Buccaneers took another step towards keeping their Super Bowl roster in tact, signing Lavonte David to what amounts to a two-year, $25 million deal.

Per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, the contract will include three voidable years at the end. That allows the Bucs to spread out David’s signing bonus and lower his cap hit to $3.5 million for 2021.

Given that the Bucs are defending champs and Tom Brady will be 44 going into next season, it’s perfectly reasonable to go all-in with moves like this. David is 31, and he played at a high level last season. He’s a true three-down linebacker and has played 99 percent of the Bucs’ defensive snaps in each of the past two seasons. He landed at 14th overall and No. 1 at his position in our ranking of this year’s NFL free agents.

The contract is fair for both sides. David’s annual salary of $12.5 million ranks 10th among off-ball linebackers. Had he wanted to test the market, David probably could have gotten more, but given his age and his position, Tampa offered him a fair deal. This was a move that made sense for both sides.

Grade: B+

March 8

The Cowboys’ $160 million deal with Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott was not going to reach the open market. But what was previously unclear was whether he’d play 2021 on a franchise tag or a long-term contract. Now there is an answer. Prescott has agreed to a four-year, $160 million deal to stay in Dallas.

Prescott had all the leverage, and he exercised it well. He could have played next season on the franchise tag and then hit free agency in 2022. The Cowboys had to incentivize him to sign a long-term deal. Per NFL Network, Prescott will receive a $66 million signing bonus and $75 million in year one of his deal. And he’ll receive $126 million guaranteed. In NFL history, only Patrick Mahomes has received more guaranteed money. Prescott also gets a no-trade clause and a no-tag provision. Bottom line: It’s a home run deal for him.

As for the Cowboys, they cost themselves by waiting until this offseason to get a long-term deal done. They used the tag last offseason and had to pay top of the market this offseason. In the unlikely event that Prescott struggles, their options are limited, given his no-trade clause. And Prescott will have leverage during the next negotiations, given that he will be just 31 when he is scheduled to hit free agency again in 2025.

Having said that, the surest path to sustained success is to build an efficient offense. The Cowboys’ offense ranked third in DVOA with Prescott in 2016, 10th in 2017 and second in 2019. Prescott has completed 66 percent of his passes, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 106 touchdown passes with 40 interceptions in his career. If we want to go to advanced stats, he’s averaged 0.14 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play over the last three years, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranks ninth out of 44 quarterbacks.

There are no sure things, but as far as huge quarterback contracts go, this should be a relatively safe one. The Cowboys’ offense with Prescott offers a high floor and a high ceiling. And given where the Cowboys were this offseason, they really had only two options. One was to let Prescott play 2021 on the franchise tag, which would have meant potentially losing him next offseason. The other was to pay him at the top of the market. They chose the latter.

The Cowboys should have a top-10 quarterback for the next four seasons, and they can now better chart their course toward Super Bowl contention. But they don’t get any smiley-face stickers, given that they failed to get the deal done in previous offseasons and ended up having to pay at the top of the quarterback market.

Grade: B-

March 1

The Cardinals’ 2-year, $31M deal with J.J. Watt

J.J. Watt found a surprise destination after being released by the Houston Texans. He’ll join the Arizona Cardinals on a two-year, $31 million deal.

Watt can still play. He was double-teamed at the highest rate (30.1 percent) in the league last season, according to ESPN. Watt finished 2020 with five sacks and 17 quarterback hits.

But it’s fair to question how the Cardinals are allocating their resources. They ranked 19th in offensive efficiency last season. If they don’t find answers on offense, Watt’s presence is unlikely to make much of a difference in their overall success. And Watt carries plenty of risk. He’s 32 years old, and he missed 32 games due to injury from 2016 to 2019. Would the Cardinals have been better off investing in younger players on the offensive line and/or at wide receiver?

Watt will give the Cardinals’ pass rush a boost, but this seemed like a risky gamble to take, given the other needs on the Arizona roster and the issues the offense had last season.

Grade C-

(Photo of Lavonte David: Chris O’Meara / Associated Press)