It’s funny how quickly things can change in the National Football League. Two weeks ago the Patriots were enjoying their bye week while listening to national pundits everywhere declare them as a favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Football Outsiders had New England and Tampa Bay as the most likely matchup in the big game based on a variety of stats and other metrics.
Just two weeks later and things look much different. Back-to-back defeats for the Patriots coming out of the bye, the second straight season that’s happened to a Bill Belichick coached team, has New England clinging to a wild card spot.
In the NFC, the Bucs were able to win their division but a boatload of injuries – including a torn ACL to top receiver Chris Godwin – has changed the outlook for that team dramatically as well, although few people would doubt Tom Brady’s ability to overcome those losses.
(To further illustrate this point, the Bills were “broken” at the time coming off the Monday night loss to the Patriots. Today they’re back on top in the AFC East).
Now, instead of over-the-top praise, the Patriots will likely hear a bunch of negativity this week and as they gear up for a playoff run. Just as the Super Bowl hype was misguided, so too will the reaction to a couple of losses as some will discredit the previous success.
In retrospect, it’s probably fair to suggest that there was too much stock put into the Patriots seven-game winning streak, which featured victories over lesser-lites such as the Jets, Falcons and Panthers as well as Browns and Titans teams that came to Foxborough minus multiple significant players. Even the gritty Monday night win in Buffalo was as much about the conditions as anything else, a fact that seemed to be validated in Sunday’s rematch when Josh Allen and the Bills scored on all but one of their seven possessions and didn’t punt in the game.
Of the seven wins, the road victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers was likely the most impressive. The defense came together and limited Justin Herbert while also providing the game’s biggest play – Adrian Phillips’ pick-six in the fourth quarter that allowed New England to post the comeback victory.
Otherwise, the Patriots took care of business against teams that for the most part were unable to provide much resistance. When facing teams that fought back, New England was slow to react and faced two-score deficits in the first half of losses to Indy and the Bills.
Now comes the hard part. How do the Patriots respond, and more specifically, how does young Mac Jones respond? The rookie has been steady for much of the season, but lately there have been signs of some cracks in his armor. He attempted just three passes in the wind in Buffalo, then was ineffective in the two losses, especially so against Buffalo when he completed just 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards and a pair of picks. For the first time all season, Jones appeared flustered at times during both defeats, and the unsettled nature came early after a sack on third down halted each of the team’s opening possessions in each game.
From there he was slow to find his form, and in truth against Buffalo that never happened. He showed some mettle in rallying the team to 17 fourth-quarter points in Indy but the game was all but lost at that point. What the two losses showed us is the Patriots at this stage appear to be a team that needs to play with the lead so it can continue to run the ball and keep Jones out of must-throw situations.
When that happens the rookie has proven to be reliable, showing pinpoint accuracy while moving the team well between the 20s. When the Patriots fall behind, though, the lack of firepower is on display. It generally takes them a good deal of time to mount scoring drives, and when trailing by multiple scores in the second half, time is not on your side.
Against Buffalo Jones directed a pair of touchdown drives after the break, the first of which took 7:21 with the Patriots trailing 20-7. That 75-yard drive included a 31-yard Damien Harris run, so even with a chunk play to aid the cause it took a lot of time off the clock just to claw within 6.
It’s clear that for this team to be successful things need to play out close to how they did during the seven-game streak. During that stretch the Patriots trailed just three times (against the Chargers late, the Panthers in the second quarter and 7-0 to start the Browns game). Overall, Jones had the luxury of playing each week on his terms.
It may take a while before the rookie is able to overcome the slow starts, but with just two weeks remaining in the regular season that’s time the Patriots may not currently have.