INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts find themselves in the middle of making some hard decisions.
Under Chris Ballard and Frank Reich, the team has built a young, talented core in Indianapolis, capable of keeping them in playoff contention for the foreseeable future.
But a good portion of the core that helped get Indianapolis to this point is scheduled to hit the free agent market. T.Y. Hilton, Denico Autry, Justin Houston, Anthony Walker, Marlon Mack, Jacoby Brissett, Xavier Rhodes and Malik Hooker have all played key roles for Indianapolis in the Ballard-Reich era, and they’re all headed into free agency.
That leaves the Colts in a tough spot.
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Trying to figure out if it’s time to let go.
“We have to make very hard decisions sometimes,” Ballard said. “Not everybody’s happy with them, but we have to make the right decisions for the Colts.”
Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, shown trying to make a grab against the Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2020, is 31 and has posted the two lowest yardage totals of his career the past two seasons, though injury and uncertainty at quarterback played into that. (Photo: Grace Hollars/IndyStar)
Ballard believes in rewarding his players.
Always has. When a player emerges for the Colts, beats the expectations and becomes a critical player in Indianapolis, Ballard, Reich and the rest of the Colts staff want to reward him and keep him in Lucas Oil Stadium.
“I want every guy on the roster back, I really do,” Reich said at the end of the season. “I think we had everybody in the locker room this year we needed to win a world championship, but I’m 59 years old, and I have been in the NFL for 27 years. I know it doesn’t work that way.”
For starters, there are some Colts who believe they’ve earned the right to play a bigger role in the NFL than the one that’s likely awaiting them if they come back to Indianapolis. Ballard and the Colts obsess over depth, and when a team prioritizes depth, inevitably a few positions pile up with starting-caliber players.
A player like Walker, a critical piece who lost playing time to Bobby Okereke as the 2020 season progressed, or Mack, whose injury opened the door for Jonathan Taylor to emerge as a star as a rookie, has to weigh whether another NFL city is going to give them an opportunity that’s not available in Indianapolis.
“They’ve got to, (No.) 1, want to be back, and, (No.) 2, you’ve got to be able to meet from a contract standpoint,” Ballard said. “We pour everything we can into player development. … If another team offers more money than we do, good for him. Sometimes I get pissed about it because I don’t want to lose the player, but I’m always able to take a step back and say, ‘OK, we’ve done our job, and the player’s done his job, and he deserves to be rewarded.’”
Deciding the numbers on that financial reward are the hardest part.
A team swimming in cap space like the Colts — projected to have roughly $45 million in cap space even after the acquisition of starting quarterback Carson Wentz — could theoretically outbid just about everyone for their guys and bring them back.
The hard truth is that some won’t be able to live up to the contract they’re being offered elsewhere, and the right move for the Colts is to let the player walk away.
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The lesson was learned the hard way two seasons ago.
Faced with the potential free agency of several starters after a surprising run to 10-6 and a playoff win, the Colts elected to bring almost everybody back in free agency, re-signing kicker Adam Vinatieri, right guard Mark Glowinski, nose tackle Margus Hunt, cornerback Pierre Desir and safety Clayton Geathers.
Only Glowinski made good on the deal he signed.
Vinatieri’s kicking spiraled into a season-long problem. Hunt lost the nose tackle job to Grover Stewart early, Geathers found himself giving ground to rookie Khari Willis. Desir, who’d been brilliant during the 2018 playoff run, injured his hamstring early and never got back to the level he’d been playing.
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The Colts either released or watched all four players walk away the next offseason.
“It’s hard,” Ballard said. “You try to do the best you can to evaluate what the player has left, and if you give them money, are they still going to play with the same fire and passion? It’s a delicate balance.”
The Colts’ 2020 crop of free agents is a little different.
Both the 30-somethings — Hilton, Houston, Autry and Rhodes — and the younger guys — Walker, Mack, Brissett and Hooker, among others — have much longer track records than most of the group the Colts brought back in 2019, and none of them has quite reached the age of a player like Vinatieri.
If anything, that makes these decisions harder, and the lack of a hard cap number and uncertain free agent class have made it more difficult than ever to make these decisions early, which is why Indianapolis hasn’t re-signed any of its own yet, the way they’d kept several players from actually getting to the free agent market in 2019.
Ultimately, the decision will come down to what the Colts think each player can still give them, and how much money they should earn for that production.
And if the player can get a lot more than that value on the open market, knowing when it’s time to let go.