| Florida Times-Union
It’s not hyperbole to suggest the next eight weeks represents the most critical offseason stretch in Jaguars’ history. Every decision they make through the NFL draft can potentially set this franchise up for a historic turnaround from 1-15.
In the NFL free-agency era, the precedent is there for that to happen. The New York Jets quickly recovered from a one-win season in 1996 after hiring coach Bill Parcells, who got them to the AFC Championship in his second year. The Carolina Panthers pulled off a similar feat, hiring Jon Fox after their 1-15 disaster in 2001 and nearly knocked off the New England Patriots two years later in the Super Bowl.
Whether Urban Meyer can lead that kind of recovery for the Jaguars remains to be seen, but he and general manager Trent Baalke certainly have the salary-cap space (about $75 million) and draft capital (11 picks) to get it done.
So as the Jaguars approach the highlight portion of the offseason, here’s my list of do’s and don’ts for their player acquisition process in free agency and the NFL draft:
Do pursue a left tackle upgrade: It’s not like starter Cam Robinson is inadequate or not serviceable, but he’s a microcosm of why the Jaguars have bottom-5 NFL talent: too many average or sub-par players occupy starting roles. With presumptive No. 1 pick in quarterback Trevor Lawrence being the most important asset, it’s paramount to have a left tackle to protect his blind side and stabilize a so-so offensive line.
The best option is pursuing 32-year-old veteran Trent Williams, who’s going to command one of the largest contracts of any unrestricted free agent. It’s not a huge risk to avoid franchise-tagging Robinson and letting him walk into free agency. The Jaguars just have to be reasonably confident of landing Williams or acquiring a quality left tackle with the No. 25 overall draft pick because the position is too vital.
The second option is a bit more nerve-wracking since there’s no guarantee a left tackle would be available who is ready to be an immediate starter, but it’s no more a gamble than just riding it out with Robinson as Lawrence’s blind-side bodyguard. There has been speculation about trading for the Baltimore Ravens’ Orlando Brown, but why surrender draft capital for someone with limited experience as a left tackle?
Don’t be concerned about keeping own free agents: Other than Robinson, and he’s a tossup at best, none of the Jaguars’ 23 UFAs fall under the must-retain category. You could make an argument for receiver Keelan Cole, backup offensive lineman Tyler Shatley, defensive end Dawaune Smoot or dependable nickel back D.J. Hayden, but none of the players on expiring deals would be a crippling loss if they’re employed elsewhere.
Teams who succeed in the NFL give deserving players a second contract. By the same token, winning teams also have to let players go when their value is no longer ascending.
Do go shopping for expensive free agents: With all that cap space and so many need positions, the Jaguars must swing for the fences on two or three big-ticket items in free agency. Some UFAs, possibly safety Justin Simmons and former Jaguars’ receiver Allen Robinson, will get franchise-tagged.
Now if the following players become available — defensive lineman Leonard Williams, pass-rusher Shaq Barrett, tight end Hunter Henry, safety Marcus Williams, cornerback William Jackson III and Trent Williams – the Jaguars should rank them in priority and assign each a price tag.
Obviously, Meyer and Baalke can’t sign them all, but they have to decide which UFAs are worth signing for big money because the draft can’t fill every hole.
Keep in mind, the batting average in free agency is as hit-or-miss as the draft. Of the approximate 25 big-money UFAs signed by the Jaguars in their history, about half were productive enough to warrant the money they collected for their services.
The Jaguars could use a run like they had in the 2016-17 offseasons when monster deals given to Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye — all key starters on that magical ‘17 defense – paid immediate dividends. They also have to avoid a wasteful offseason like 2008, when free-agent receiver Jerry Porter and cornerback Drayton Florence were gone within one year of signing a combined $66 million worth of contracts.
During their only run of sustained winning in the late 1990s, the Jaguars shelled out big dollars for key pieces like Leon Searcy, Gary Walker, Kyle Brady and Carnell Lake, but also struck out with Bryce Paup. Free agency is always a roll of the dice.
But this situation is ripe for Meyer and Baalke to take some big swings. The Jaguars just have to hope their expensive new pieces turn out to be more like Paul Posluszny, and less like Hugh Douglas.
Don’t try to fix everything in one year: Just because the Jaguars have an abundance of cap money and draft capital, it’s still important to show some patience. You almost have to pounce early for coveted free agents, but the Jaguars need to be disciplined enough to back off when prices get too high. And that includes not trading away an excessive amount of capital to move up in the draft, as well as overspending on a free agent.
It often takes two or three years of wheeling-and-dealing for a new regime to properly fortify a roster and dig itself out of the NFL abyss. This is about putting together a team to win in 2022 and beyond, so make smart moves for the long term.
Do draft for value more than need: Too many teams make the mistake of forcing draft picks because they feel compelled to upgrade at a need position, often passing up better players still on the board. By nature, the NFL is an attrition league, so quality depth is necessary almost everywhere.
Even if you have greater needs at cornerback, linebacker or tight end, isn’t it better to pick a pass-rusher with 7.5 grade than a player at a needier position with a 6.3 grade? Going the BAP (best available player) route in the draft is almost always the smarter play.
Don’t worry about Trevor being an immediate savior: It’s impossible for fans to temper their expectations for Lawrence. The hype has been at a fever pitch for months. This is where Meyer, offensive coordinator Darren Bevell and quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer have to be careful not to rush his development once he’s officially a Jaguar.
Lawrence shouldn’t be considered behind schedule if he’s not the next offensive Rookie of the Year or has lesser numbers in his first season than the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert, the 2020 ROY recipient. In fact, of the 24 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 since 1970, only three (Sam Bradford, 2010; Cam Newton, 2011; and Kyler Murray, 2019) were named ROY.
Immediate success didn’t happen for Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Troy Aikman or Peyton Manning. As rookies, their combined record as starters was 10-35, with a touchdown-interception ratio of — and this is not a misprint — 48-84!
Being excited about Lawrence’s arrival is different from getting excited about anticipating him being an instant NFL success. Meyer and his staff have to be as poised about Trevor’s progress as they expect him to be when he’s forced to scramble or buy time in the pocket.
There should be no sounding of alarm bells if the future face of the franchise is far less than perfect right out of the gate. For now, simply enjoy the anticipation of that moment when commissioner Roger Goodell soon utters those historic words: “With the first pick in the NFL draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select. . . .”
Before Trevor Lawrence throws his first NFL pass, just soak in the lead-up to what should be a fascinating Jaguars’ journey.
gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540