The start of the 2021 free agency period is about a week away. The cap has declined from where it was in 2020, which means teams have been making cap-clearing moves and there are still more to come. A whole bunch of teams have used the franchise tag, but others have surprisingly not elected to use it on players who should be sought after on the open market.
With all that in mind, we’re going to spend the next few days walking through the types of moves each and every team can make. But rather than go by division or conference, we’re going through the list in order of potential spending power. Below, we’re digging into the teams we can reasonably expect to be spenders, as they have $35 million or more in cap room.
*All salary cap numbers are courtesy of overthecap.com.*
Key Free Agents: Cam Robinson (franchise tagged), D.J. Hayden
Pressing Needs: QB (not for long, obviously), WR, TE, OL, IDL, S
Minor Needs: CB
The Jaguars will be filling their need at quarterback shortly after 8 p.m. ET on April 29. Everything they do in free agency should be done with Trevor Lawrence in mind. Cam Robinson has not been an above-average left tackle so far during his career, but the Jags franchised him anyway because they can’t risk having a below-replacement-level player at that spot in Lawrence’s first season. They should be looking for an upgrade in either free agency or the draft.
They also desperately need to upgrade Lawrence’s weaponry. D.J. Chark is a solid receiver, but not necessarily a true No. 1. Laviska Shenault is an interesting talent that Urban Meyer and company should be able to get the ball in creative ways. But there’s got to be something for Lawrence to work with beyond those two guys. The wide receiver class is plenty intriguing, and they should be able to land somebody on a mid-sized deal. I also think this is a really interesting destination for Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith as middle-of-the-field weapons for Lawrence to work with.
With Abry Jones and Adam Gotsis hitting free agency and Taven Bryan not yet leaving up to his lofty draft status, the Jags could also use some help up the middle on defense. Unless you trust Davon Hamilton and/or Doug Costin that much. The concern up the middle extends to the back end, where Josh Jones, Jarrod Wilson, and Andrew Wingard are an uninspiring safety trio. They probably won’t be shopping at the top of the market at either position, but guys like Roy Robertson-Harris would be a good fit up front, and if they are willing to spend, John Johnson III is probably the best available safety who hasn’t been tagged.
Key Free Agents: Marcus Maye (franchise tagged), Brian Poole, Breshad Perriman
Pressing Needs: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, EDGE, LB, CB
Minor Needs: N/A
The only positions at which the Jets do not need a lot of help are the defensive interior (where they have Quinnen Williams) and safety (where they tagged Maye and have 2020 third-rounder Ashtyn Davis, who is at least intriguing). Everywhere else, this is a bad team in need of a whole lot of talent.
The Jets did not do Sam Darnold any favors in his three years as their quarterback, taking essentially the opposite route that the division rival Bills did when it came to surrounding their young passer with talent. They shouldn’t make the same mistake twice, assuming they plan to select a quarterback at No. 2 overall. Landing Mekhi Becton last year was a good start, but they swung and missed on a bunch of other offensive line signings, and should take some more swings this year. They should be fighting the Bengals for every available offensive lineman. It’s also important that the quarterback have more to work with than Denzel Mims and possibly Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios, so they should be in the mix for guys like Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Will Fuller, and Curtis Samuel, in addition to potentially bringing back Perriman. I also would not be surprised if they were in on Matt Breida and/or Tevin Coleman, two former 49ers backs who know Mike LaFleur’s system well and could share carries with someone they pick up in the middle rounds of the draft. (Though they are still the Jets, so you can’t rule out them splashing the pot for someone like Aaron Jones.)
They need help at pretty much every spot on defense as well, but the most obvious needs are on the edge and at corner. Luckily, there’s a lot of talent available on the edge this year, whether on the high end (Bud Dupree, Matt Judon, Shaq Barrett, Yannick Ngakoue, and more), in the mid-range (Carl Lawson, Haason Reddick, Romeo Okwara, and more) and among veterans who could get overlooked, depending on how the market shakes out (Ryan Kerrigan, Carlos Dunlap, Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston, Olivier Vernon, and more). It would not at all be surprising to see them pursue Richard Sherman, who excelled under new coach Robert Saleh in San Francisco, though Sherman might prefer to go somewhere he has a better chance to win. The corner crop is deep, though, so there is plenty to choose from.
Key Free Agents: Cam Newton, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, James White, Jason McCourty, J.C. Jackson (RFA)
Pressing Needs: QB, WR, TE, IOL, EDGE
Minor Needs: LB, CB, S
The first and most important thing the Patriots have to do is make a decision at quarterback. Is Cam sticking around? Are they giving Jarrett Stidham a shot? Are they going to try to move up in the draft to land their guy? What is happening here? That decision informs everything else.
They just traded for Trent Brown, which leads one to believe that they are either moving on from right tackle Marcus Cannon or do not believe in left tackle Isaiah Wynn’s health. Either way, Thuney and Andrews remain key free agents, because whoever is taking the snaps needs to be protected up the middle if they are not going to be rock-solid on the edge. White seems very likely to leave, and perhaps join Tom Brady in Tampa. McCourty is probably gone as well. Jackson is restricted so the Pats can retain him if they want to.
Whoever is under center, the Patriots simply have to upgrade at receiver, and probably tight end. What they have been working with there these past few years is not workable, as we saw for most of the last two seasons. That said, this has never been a team to pay up at the receiver spot. But this has also never been a team to not have Tom Brady. You’ve got to make some changes when you make that kind of change. The same is true at edge. They’ve never paid big money for pressure guys, preferring to prioritize versatility and bringing the rush from different angles. But if they don’t have the type of guys who paper over holes elsewhere, maybe they need to rethink the way they build the roster.
Key Free Agents: T.Y. Hilton, Xavier Rhodes, Jacoby Brissett, Justin Houston
Pressing Needs: WR, LT, EDGE
Minor Needs: QB, CB, S
The Colts solved their quarterback issue — at least, they hope they did — by trading for Carson Wentz. The retirement of Anthony Castonzo is an issue, but they should be in good position to draft his successor with the No. 21 overall pick. Castonzo himself was the No. 22 pick in the 2011 draft.
Hilton is getting up there in age (he turns 32 next season) and hasn’t been at his peak in several years, so even with Michael Pittman in the fold, the Colts should be looking at the wide receiver market. They can probably bring back Zach Pascal because he’s restricted and it’s possible Hilton will return, but insulating Wentz as much as possible should be a priority.
With Houston and Denico Autry set for free agency, the edge is probably Indy’s most obvious need. The Colts were extremely aggressive in pursuing DeForest Buckner to fill their need up the middle last offseason, and it would not be surprising if they were similarly aggressive to find a young cornerstone on the edge this year. Ngakoue, Lawson, Okwara, and more should be on their radar. And with Rhodes hitting free agency and Malik Hooker seemingly ticketed out of town, they should be in the defensive back market as well.
Cincinnati Bengals ($41 million)
Key Free Agents: William Jackson III, Carl Lawson, A.J. Green, Mackensie Alexander
Pressing Needs: OL, EDGE, CB
Minor Needs: WR, TE, LB
I got very used to writing, “The Bengals don’t pay outside free agents” in this section every year, and then the Bengals went and paid outside free agents last year, handing D.J. Reader and Trae Waynes multi-year, big-money deals. They have a bit less room to work with this offseason, though, and two important in-house free agents to retain. Jackson is still a very good corner and Lawson a very good pass rusher. Both will be sought after on the market, but the Bengals should do what they can to bring them back. Doing so may limit their ability to pursue offensive line upgrades, though, and those are more badly needed because the situation in front of Joe Burrow last season was untenable. They should not be precious with their money here. The investment in the No. 1 pick needs to be protected. They should be in on every available OL upgrade until they’re confident they can keep Burrow from running for his life throughout Year 2.
Washington Football Team ($37 million)
Key Free Agents: Brandon Scherff (franchise tagged), Ryan Kerrigan, Ronald Darby, Reuben Foster
Pressing Needs: QB, WR, LT, CB
Minor Needs: LB, S
Scherff playing on a second consecutive tag would make him pretty prohibitively expensive. It’d also damn near guarantee he walks next offseason. Considering the Football Team has already parted ways with star left tackle Trent Williams, that would just not be good business. They should be doing their best to hammer out a long-term deal with Scherff, or else trade him to some other team that wants to do so.
Like pretty much every other team on this list, though, the biggest priority here has to be figuring out the quarterback situation. Alex Smith is gone. Dwayne Haskins is gone. Tyler Heinicke is not a long-term answer. Do they want to move up the draft board? Are they in the market for Cam Newton and/or Jameis Winston? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Whatever they case, they need to be in the receiver market as well, because Terry McLaurin can’t do everything by himself. It’s tough to know which receiver they should prioritize without knowing who’s going to be under center, but as detailed, there are plenty of options available. The corner market is also plenty deep, to the point that we can just say they should be considering everyone.
Key Free Agents: Justin Simmons (franchise tagged), Von Miller, Phillip Lindsay
Pressing Needs: QB, IDL, CB
Minor Needs: IOL, EDGE
I might have a different view of the Broncos’ needs than the Broncos do. At least if John Elway is still running the show and not new general manager George Paton, who has less invested in Drew Lock. The rumors that they have interest in Deshaun Watson don’t rule out confidence in Lock if they can’t land a star. There are something like 25 teams that should be trying to get Watson. The Broncos could look at some edge help, and with both Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye unlikely to return, the interior defensive line and corner should be priorities as well.