By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist
A potentially remarkable NFL Draft is nearly upon us, coming up swiftly at the back end of this month, with a series of situational peculiarities and recent developments shaping it up to be something that’s unmissable in the present and influentially seismic – one way or another – in the future.
It all centers around a talented group of quarterbacks generating the most attention among NFL teams and it’s already being described any number of ways. A QB frenzy, a QB bonanza, an arms race, the Super Signal-caller Sweepstakes (fine, I made the last one up … but I kind of like it).
“There are,” said Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy (apparently without a trace of irony), “a lot of good quarterbacks in this draft class.”
Let’s hope he’s right. It’s going to be a big old mess otherwise.
A mixture of timing and the ever-present reality that there simply aren’t as many quality NFL QBs as there are teams that need them, means this draft could look a whole lot different to what you’re used to.
Quarterbacks are always highly-prized, but perhaps never more than now. Several mock drafts have QBs being taken with every one of the first four slots on the board. That’s right … 1-2-3-4.
Consensus is that Trevor Lawrence will be the No. 1 pick, although we can never be certain of these things until they actually … okay, forget that. Lawrence is No. 1 and is headed to the Jacksonville Jaguars, something the Jags aren’t allowed to actively say but are making no attempt to hide.
In fact, the first three seem certain to be quarterbacks when you take even the most cursory glance at the tea leaves. The New York Jets didn’t trade away Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers just to be left hanging at the most important position and are widely tipped to secure BYU’s Zach Wilson at No. 2.
Likewise, the San Francisco 49ers didn’t engineer a blockbuster trade involving seven picks and two other teams in order to secure the No. 3 position, just so they could grab a defensive lineman.
Rookie quarterback Justin Fields will throw at Ohio State’s second Pro Day, and San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is expected to attend. Free Agent Richard Sherman praises Fields, and believes the Niners should draft him at No. 3. Eric Mangini joins First Things First to decide whether he agrees with Sherman, and Fields could find himself in San Francisco.
“We are excited to (get) a hell of a quarterback,” head coach Kyle Shanahan admitted last month, while effectively putting a time limit on Jimmy Garoppolo’s Bay Area future.
After that, it gets even more interesting, with the Atlanta Falcons owning the fourth pick. Countless options abound there, including the Falcons selecting a quarterback to either replace or learn under Matt Ryan, or trading away the selection, or using it to boost their roster at another position.
“We know quarterbacks are going 1-2-3,” FS1’s Nick Wright said on “First Things First.” “You’ve got to ask yourself at some point, how many great QBs do we think are coming out of this draft? If you go quarterback at four, you are not getting the best value for that pick. Instead, you could get literally the best player at any other position.”
Yet it is easy to see why teams would be tempted to move up. In the NFL, for any team that wants to be a contender, a quarterback that is at least serviceable is a bare minimum. A good one can get you to the promised land, or at least offer some hope that such a thing is possible. One that doesn’t work out can be a financial drain that takes years to crawl out from under.
There are no guarantees.
“How often was the first quarterback off the board the one who went on to have the best career in a given draft?” asked Rodger Sherman of The Ringer. “Time and again, teams have proved more likely to pick the wrong quarterback than the right one.”
If a five-year stretch from 2013-2017, the first quarterback picked in each draft was as follows: EJ Manuel, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky. Sometimes none of those picked truly work out. Probably the best career to come from the 2013 class belongs to Geno Smith.
All this puts more focus on the small group beyond Lawrence and Wilson. Drafting a QB No. 1 who goes on to be really good is awesome. Finding the right guy with a lower pick is infinitely sweeter.
Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance round out the group of five predicted to generate the most interest. Fields will throw next week at Ohio State’s second pro day, and the 49ers have confirmed they will be in attendance. If Fields, Jones or Lance begin to drop, even teams not necessarily in the market for a QB might be tempted to try get their guy, for the medium term.
Keep an eye on the Falcons, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos and the Bears for all kinds of possible permutations.
FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre has four QBs being selected in the top-eight picks in his latest NFL mock draft. Meanwhile, Colin Cowherd has quarterbacks being taken with the first four picks in his latest mock draft.
After the news of the New York Jets trading Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers, Colin Cowherd has revised his 2021 NFL Mock Draft. See where he believes players will land after these new developments.
The last time there was a frenetic rush on QBs like we will probably see this year was back in 1999. Tim Couch came off the board first, Donovan McNabb followed immediately and Akili Smith rounded out the top three. Daunte Culpepper went at 11 and Cade McNown at 12. McNabb took the Eagles to a Super Bowl and Culpepper made three Pro Bowls, but you don’t need an NFL historian to tell you that there wasn’t a whole lot of resulting magic to come from the rest of those picks.
And still…teams are going to keep trying.
It is going to be a wild draft and there are a lot of unknowns. Limited information is available, just like last year. Teams have to take more of a chance. The way it is looking, there’s no shortage of organizations that will try to swing big.
It is exciting and anticipatory, just because of the inherent danger involved. Your pick could turn into Aaron Rodgers or … yeah, exactly, that guy who once thrilled your GM and whose name you can’t now remember.
If all of them hit, it will go down as one of the greatest QB classes of all time, maybe even something to hold a candle to the 1983 corps that featured John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.
Are we that lucky? History tells us no, which makes the whole thing a captivating gamble, yet one where the upside is so high that teams don’t find it hard to talk themselves into the risk.
Yes, there are a lot of good QBs in this draft class … for now.
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.
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