Eric Gay/Associated Press
Tier 2: Notable Soon-To-Be Restricted Free Agents
Lonzo Ball, New Orleans Pelicans
Sources told The Athletic’s Shams Charania at the end of January the Pelicans were shopping Lonzo Ball. Since then, he’s averaging 16.5 points and 5.5 assists while downing 45.9 percent of his threes on nearly nine attempts per game.
Functional warts remain. Ball is hitting 38.7 percent of his pull-up triples during this time, but he’s not the type of floor general who can put traditional pressure on defenses in the half court with drives or pick-and-roll scoring.
That’s different from saying he’s a bad fit in New Orleans. He’s not. He and Zion Williamson complement each other. Equally important: The Pelicans likely aren’t getting adequate value for his services when he’s on the verge of a massive payday. Unless he’s already told them he wants to leave or they fear a max offer sheet this summer, they’re better off keeping him and hashing out his future after he signs his next deal.
John Collins, Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta has “shown a willingness” to field offers for John Collins, according to The Athletic’s Sam Amick. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement for his availability.
Moving him now isn’t a binary decision. He’s much too important to the Hawks’ postseason aspirations—and not just for his offense. His steal and block rates have dipped, but he’s a smarter defender. His rotations are on point, and he is not helpless in space.
Whether Atlanta should want to pay him $100-plus million in his next contract is debatable. But he makes under $4.2 million now. Even if he is expendable—and he may not be—the Hawks aren’t getting a ton for him alone. This, too, is a situation that should leak into the offseason (sign-and-trade) or next year, when he can be rerouted as a much larger cap hit.
Tier 3: Big Names More Likely to Get Bought Out
Andre Drummond, Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland has removed Andre Drummond from the rotation while trying to find a new home for him ahead of the March 25 deadline, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Brian Windhorst. Coming up with prospective deals is tough.
Drummond’s on-court value is very much eye-of-the-beholder stuff. But his $28.8 million price point is steep for even the most devout optimists. The Cavaliers most likely have to take back a longer, less palatable deal to grease the wheels of prospective trades. And while that’s not out of the question, it does limit the number of potentially interested parties.
Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons
Blake Griffin is getting the Drummond treatment while Detroit weighs trade and buyout options, per Wojnarowski. Bet on the latter.
Identifying destinations for Griffin is ridiculously difficult even if we assume the Pistons are open to absorbing unsavory contracts. He is making $36.8 million this year and has a $39 million player option for next season. It’d be one thing if he showed flashes of 2018-19 All-NBA Blake Griffin after missing basically all of 2019-20 with a left knee injury. He hasn’t.
JJ Redick, New Orleans Pelicans
Forecasting a buyout for JJ Redick probably goes too far. Teams won’t trip over themselves to take on the $13 million contract of a 36-year-old, but he’s burying nearly 47 percent of his threes since Feb. 1. Shooters always have a market. Redick’s market merely figures to be finite.
He prefers to end up with one of the teams in the Northeast, and New Orleans seems prepared to oblige if it moves him, according to Charania. That boils his most likely landing spots down to the Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers—and leaves little room for surprise scenarios.