The NBA is the Wild West right now given COVID-19 and the league’s health protocols, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to be had. We sit at 44-36 on the season for article plays and look to cash some Wednesday winners before the All-Star break.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers: CLE +7 (-110)
Betting on the Cavs this season feels gross, especially following a 10-game losing streak and an 0-13 ATS stretch. But what have they done since then? Gone 4-0 straight up and ATS, winning all four games as dogs, including cashing for us in this article on Monday at Houston. Even going back the full season, Cleveland is a solid 9-9 SU/ATS at home, while Indy limps into this game. The Pacers are just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. I’ll trust Cleveland’s talented young backcourt, along with Jarrett Allen to keep this one close at home.
Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves: CHA ML (-121)
We are going to keep backing some gross teams on this card, but I truly believe these are the right spots. Charlotte’s been a solid road team at 9-8 ATS, and I’m surprised this is a near pick’em. Injury news will dictate line movement, as both Gordon Hayward and Cody Zeller are questionable. If either or both return, we’ll see the spread grow. This is more of a Timberwolves fade, though. The Wolves are 4-12 at home this season, and are on an 0-8 skid that includes going 0-8 ATS. Still without its starting backcourt, Minnesota just can’t find ways to win right now. I trust the Hornets even if both starters remain out.
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Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers: POR 1Q ML (-103)
Straight numbers play here, backing the info from the NBA betting trends article. We’ve got a couple solid teams here, but they start games in completely different fashions. The Warriors are just 5-12 1Q ATS on the road this season, while the Blazers, while battling all their current injuries, are on an 11-3 1Q ATS run. I’ll happily ride that trend in this spot.
Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets: BKN 1Q -3 (-118) and James Harden O29.5 points (+100)
The night wouldn’t be complete without having some coin on the Harden revenge narrative. With the in-season trade, it’s still also all so fresh — throw the numbers out the window, even money on Harden to drop 30-plus in this game just feels right. He’s been right there in four of his last five, and while he went over just twice, he finished at 29 twice. I think the revenge narrative is good for some extra buckets here, and his teammates will help him. Partially working under the same narrative here, I’d expect the Nets to come out ready in this game. But going against the Rockets on paper is also the perfect fade, as Houston is 2-12 1Q ATS at home, and 2-10 1Q ATS in its last 12 games overall.
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