Potential top-10 NBA draft picks typically don’t stay in school. Will Michigan’s Franz Wagner?
Wagner just completed his sophomore season, averaging 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and three assists per game.
Those numbers don’t jump off the screen, but Michigan’s offense was designed to divide the production. Wagner was efficient, shooting 48 percent from the field. He created for himself and others. And he was probably the best defender on one of the best defensive teams in college basketball.
There are numbers that stand out even without context. Wagner grew in the offseason, to 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds. When NBA teams measure him, they may discover he’s 6-10. Players that size who can dribble and shoot are less rare now than 15 years ago, but still rare.
And Wagner, despite a few years of professional basketball in Germany before college, won’t turn 20 years old until late August.
His season ended with a 1-for-10 shooting performance against UCLA, including two misses in the final 12 seconds, either of which would have put Michigan in the Final Four.
Most everything else he’s done on a basketball court, however, has been impressive.
So it was no surprise, at least to those who watched closely, that Wagner’s name appeared on NBA mock drafts that hit the internet on Thursday.
At Sports Illustrated, Wagner is projected as the No. 9 overall pick in the July 29 draft.
“He fits a range of key criteria for an eventual starting-caliber NBA wing and still has a good chance of landing in the lottery,” SI’s Jeremy Woo writes.
“It’s clear at this point that he’s naturally more of a connector who fills in lineups than an offensive focal point, and he’ll need to become a more consistent 3-point shooter (34 percent last season) and spot-up threat to enhance his value. He’s a competent, smart team defender who plays both ends. But Wagner’s size, basketball IQ and all-around contributions coupled with the fact he’s the same age as a lot of freshmen bodes well for his future.”
CBS Sports pegs him at No. 14. ESPN has him going 20th.
Concrete data does not exist, but trust this: It would be surprising for a player with those projections to stay in school.
Each of the past two years, at least 40 players who still had college eligibility and entered the draft went undrafted. Forget those who were taken outside the top 10 or the lottery or who even fell to the second round. Forty, each year, didn’t even get picked.
Exactly how many prospects who were predicted, by outlets like those listed above, to go near the top of the draft yet chose to stay in school is unclear. But a perusal of previous mock drafts suggests it is low.
When a player bucks the trend, as Michigan State’s Miles Bridges did four years ago to return for his sophomore season, it’s huge news.
This year, the underclassmen must declare for the draft by May 30. The pre-draft combine is set for June 21-27, and the NCAA’s draft withdrawal deadline is typically within two weeks of that.
Many of the writers who penned too-early rankings for the 2021-22 college basketball season assessed Michigan based on the idea that Wagner would not return.
Of course, none of those people matter. Wagner will decide what is best for him, and he has terrific resources at his disposal. His head coach, Juwan Howard, played in the NBA for 19 years, and talks openly with his players and what it takes to get to the league.
Before the NCAA Tournament, he told them that a strong performance could set them up for life. Wagner was superb on both ends of the floor for Michigan’s first three games.
Wagner’s older brother, Moe, is in his third season in the NBA. The elder Wagner considered turning pro after a breakout sophomore season, stayed at Michigan, and was a late first-round pick the following year.
He didn’t think of it as leaving college “early.” College, for most students, is tied to a degree, and the somewhat arbitrary time frame is four years. Elite athletes use their time at school to prepare for the pros.
That Franz Wagner might love playing for Howard or the thought that Michigan could compete for a national championship next year would, it’s fair to say, be small factors in his decision.
Simply put, Wagner will jump to the NBA this summer if feels he’s ready.
Many experts think he is.
More Michigan basketball content:
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Juwan Howard got his due as a player. Now, he’s getting it as a coach
The key offseason questions facing Michigan basketball
Eligible to return, Michigan basketball seniors have decisions to make
What it was like covering Michigan basketball’s deep postseason run during a pandemic