The Miami Heat look to complete a two-game season sweep of the defending NBA champions when they host the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. The Heat (26-25), who had a four-game winning streak halted by Memphis on Tuesday, squeezed out a two-point win at Los Angeles in February — a tiny measure of revenge vs. the team that dispatched them in six games in the NBA Finals last season. The Lakers (32-19) are 4-5 since LeBron James went down with a high-ankle sprain.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at AmericanAirlines Arena. William Hill Sportsbook lists Miami as an eight-point favorite, while the over-under for total points scored is 204 in the Lakers vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it has returned almost $8,900 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season, and dating back to last year, it entered Week 16 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 93-59 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Heat vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Heat spread: Heat -8
- Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 204 points
- Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers +295; Heat -355
- MIA: The Heat are 4-17 vs. teams with a .500 or better record
- LAL: The Lakers are 16-8 on the road
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Why the Lakers can cover
While Los Angeles is without James and Anthony Davis (calf), reinforcements are expected in the lineup Thursday. Center Andre Drummond, who suffered a toe injury in his Lakers debut on March 31 that forced him to miss the past three games, is expected back along with another newly signed player in Ben McLemore. Drummond averaged 17.5 points and 13.5 boards this season for Cleveland before the Cavaliers shut him down while trying to work out a trade.
McLemore, who was released by Houston last week, is a career 36.3 percent shooter from behind the arc and fills a need for a team that ranks 24th in the league in 3-point shooting percentage. Forward Montrezl Harrell, ejected in the first quarter of Tuesday’s win at Toronto, scored at least 18 points in eight of the previous nine contests. The Lakers also can lean on a defense that ranks No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed (105.8).
Why the Heat can cover
Leading scorer Jimmy Butler had his highest offensive output in three weeks with 28 points against the Grizzlies on Tuesday and also scored 24 in the victory over Los Angeles in February. He averaged 26.2 points and registered a pair of triple-doubles in the NBA Finals vs. the Lakers. Center Bam Adebayo, coming off a triple-double (18 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) on Tuesday, is averaging 19.2 points and a team-best 9.6 rebounds.
Miami is typically one of the NBA’s top defensive clubs, ranking fourth in points allowed (107.4). The Heat acknowledged their defensive lapses after surrendering 17 3-pointers in Tuesday’s loss to the Grizzlies, who, like the Lakers, are among the league’s least productive teams in terms of threes made (10.8) per game. They also permitted Memphis to score 50 points in the paint — 10 more than the NBA-low 40.3 they allow.
How to make Heat vs. Lakers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 200 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 93-59 roll on NBA picks.