Contract Extension Candidates For The 2018 NBA Draft Class

Before the start of the 2020/2021 NBA season, multiple players from the 2017 draft class received contract extensions from their teams, keeping them around for the foreseeable future.

Next up is the 2018 class, all of whom are currently playing in their third NBA season, making them extension eligible after the season.

While there should be many guys certain to earn an extension, I won’t cover the obvious max contract extension locks, such as Luka Doncic and Trae Young, and this piece will be limited to the players chosen in the first round.

Also excluded are players who have had their fourth-year options declined.

Although, for full transparency, second-round selections Jalen Brunson (#33), Devonte’ Graham (#34), Mitchell Robinson (#36), Gary Trent Jr (#37) and Shake Milton (#54) have all produced to the point where their teams will have to hand them contract extensions in the upcoming offseason as to avoid losing them as unrestricted free agents the year in 2022.

The players from the first round will be broken down into three different tiers.

Tier 1 – To max, or not to max

This tier includes players who have produced on a level that makes them obviously worthy of an extension, but not to the point where they’re necessarily clear-cut max contract players. Some of these players might receive that number, but at this point, it isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Deandre Ayton (#1)

Ayton has been a productive center for the Suns, who by now probably should have been able to sleepwalk his way to 20 points a night. His statistical scoring has taken a dip this season from 18.2 points last season to 14.3 this year, which on the surface seems odd given the acquisition of Chris Paul, one of the best passers in league history, in the offseason. Ayton’s production notwithstanding, he’s still a 7-footer with great touch, an elite rebounder and a developing defender who’s just 22 years old.

Jaren Jackson Jr. (#4)

The sweet-shooting Jackson Jr, who last season hit 39.4% from downtown on 6.5 attempts per night, has elite 3-&-D potential from the big position. It might actually do him a disservice to classify him as just that, given his athleticism and ability to convert near the rim, where’s he hit 71.9% of his shot within three feet during his first two years. The questions arise with his lack of durability, having missed 69 games in this career already, and his lack of rebounding (4.6 per game).

Collin Sexton (#8)

During his lone season at Alabama, the knock on Sexton was his lack of efficiency as a long-range shooter. Illogically, that knock remains to this day, despite the fact that Sexton has hit 39.2% of his long-range shots over his first three seasons, on 668 attempts, while netting the Cavaliers 19.3 points per night. Sexton’s move to more of an off-guard role unleashed him offensively, and his 23.3 point average this season is only a sign of what’s to come. What the Cavaliers need to figure out is whether or not they can live with less production in other areas, such as rebounding and playmaking.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (#11)

Since getting traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Paul George trade, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 20.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists per night. He’s been a candidate for All-Star selection both years and is currently the primary building block for the Thunder as they move forward. At 6’6 and with tremendous court awareness, Gilgeous-Alexander can play three different positions and offers versatility the Thunder will likely pay through the nose for.

Tier 2 – Getting the number right

This tier represents players who will need to negotiate with their team on a number that fits both parties in order to get an extension, and if such a number isn’t agreed on could find themselves going the restricted free agency route in 2022.

Marvin Bagley (#2)

It should come as no secret that Bagley has yet to live up to his draft stock, but that doesn’t mean there couldn’t be a decent in there somewhere. The 21-year-old has averaged 14.5 points and 7.6 rebounds over his three-year career, so there’s a productivity baseline for him which does suggest he can produce more as he ages. The question is whether or not the Kings feel confident in moving forward him, or they’d rather try to trade him for a more consistent presence on the roster.

Wendell Carter Jr. (#7)

Much like with Jaren Jackson Jr, Carter Jr has missed a significant portion of his NBA career due to injury, which has to factor into Chicago’s decision on whether or not to keep the 6’10 center around long-term. When healthy, Carter Jr is an influential defender, a passing hub (11.4 AST% this season) and a developing offensive player who looks more confident for every passing year. How Carter Jr finishes this season could have an enormous impact on his future with the Bulls.

Mikael Bridges (#10)

Full disclosure, Bridges has an argument for being put in the first tier. There’s no way he and his agent aren’t looking at the contracts of Joe Harris (four years, $75 million) and Davis Bertans (five years, $80 million) and reaching the conclusion that Bridges should get a solid bit more. The 24-year-old is Phoenix’s best defender, converts on over 42% on his triples, and has shown an off-the-bounce game this season which only makes him that much more essential to keep around.

Miles Bridges (#12)

Despite not starting full-time for the Hornets anymore, the 22-year-old power dunker is providing consistent production off the bench, netting 9.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Bridges is a player who makes gradual improvements, but who still hasn’t that one break-out year, which always seems to be lurking in the shadows. Will the Hornets prefer to lock him up, and thus secure they’re the team that benefits from a potential break-out, or will they be willing to roll the dice in restricted free agency?

Michael Porter Jr (#14)

There’s not a lot of data available to the Nuggets on Porter Jr, given he’s played just 78 games. His inconsistent play, and tendency to find himself in the media for non-basketball reasons, isn’t going to necessarily help his situation. That said, the talent level and his raw potential are of such magnitude, the Nuggets will have to expect a major offer sheet coming Porter Jr’s way if they don’t extend him.

Donte DiVincenzo (#17)

The Bucks have turned DiVincenzo into a full-time starter, and he’s developed into a 40% three-point shooter who can help space the floor for Giannis Antetkounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. While the ceiling of DiVincenzo isn’t necessarily all that high, he represents the type of high-end role player most championship contenders covet. It would be surprising if the Bucks didn’t make an initial offer.

Kevin Huerter (#19)

With a loaded roster, the Hawks aren’t in great need of Huerter’s presence, yet his talent level is simply too high to ignore. The 22-year-old is a reliable long-range shooter (38.2% for his career) can function as the secondary playmaker in a pinch and even helps out on the glass. There’s a chance he takes a leap in year four, forcing Atlanta to make a call early.

Anfernee Simons (#24)

Extending Simons would be more so a decision built on the future than previous production. The 21-year-old should have been Portland’s third guard by now, a role that has instead been occupied by Gary Trent Jr. Yet, Simons remains intriguing, especially after turning into a 41% three-point shooter this year on high volume (10.5 attempts per 36 minutes). The Blazers, who will have to pay Trent Jr this offseason, could end up having to decide between them, which means it’d be difficult for Simons to get a proper extension offer.

Landry Shamet (#26)

Despite having never even played 80 games for the same team during his three-year NBA career, Shamet is considered an attractive piece given his ability to shoot (39.4% from three over his career) and handle the ball. The Nets might not be interested in making any long-term commitments to a shooter, after handing $75 million to Joe Harris.

Tier 3 – Good luck next summer

This tier is for players who are unlikely to receive an extension, and who are projected to become restricted free agents in 2022.

Mo Bamba (#5)

14.3 minutes played per game over his first three seasons, while having to break through an already well-established front-court? The odds were never in his favor, nor are they good for him to earn an extension with the Magic. Look for him to get traded either before the March 25th trade deadline, or during the offseason.

Kevin Knox (#9)

Despite numerous chances and plenty of minutes, Knox remains a 36.9% shooter for his career, who doesn’t seem to have great instincts. That’s just not very attractive to anyone.

Troy Brown Jr. (#15)

During eight games in the NBA bubble in Florida, Brown Jr. averaged 15.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists. The swingman appeared primed to make a leap for the current season, yet he has found himself playing in just 16 games, and receiving 14.3 minutes in those contests. That type of minutes, or lack thereof, simply doesn’t imply the Wizards will go out of their way to extend him.

Lonnie Walker (#18)

The Spurs could end up extending Walker, but it’d be a gamble. The 22-year-old is not a high-efficiency shooter (50.2 TS% for his career) and he’s yet to crack 2,000 career minutes which doesn’t exactly jump off the page as a good thing.

Josh Okogie (#20)

With the Minnesota Timberwolves being absolutely loaded at the wing position, the club should be in no rush to extend Okogie, despite his defensive prowess. Okogie’s 46.3 TS% this season also isn’t helping matters.

Grayson Allen (#21)

The 25-year old is actually shooting the ball at a decent clip (40.7% on triples at 4.9 attempts), but his 99-game sample size leaves a lot to be desired if you’re the Grizzlies. There isn’t much risk that someone throws a major offer sheet Allen’s way, suggesting Memphis could get him back at a reasonable price if they so desired.

Chandler Hutchison (#22)

79 inconsistent career games aren’t much to go by, meaning Hutchison at this point is bound to hit the restricted free agency market. In fact, the Bulls might even regret having picked up his fourth-year option worth a bit over $4 million.

Aaron Holiday (#23)

Holiday is having a down year, shooting just 37% from the field and starting just six games. The Pacers would be wise to let him test his own market, before any long-term decision on his future.

Robert Williams (#27)

I feel conflicted about putting Williams here. After all, he’s productive in limited minutes, and the combination of athleticism and skill level is intriguing enough to warrant a long-term look. Yet, his 1,077 career minutes are just so low, you have to wonder if Boston feels as though they have enough data on him to hand him an extension.