Can Anyone Defeat Julius Randle for NBA Most Improved Player?

Michael Porter could surprise in the MIP race (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

• NBA Most Improved Player is a wide open race with Julius Randle of Knicks the favorite
• Sportsbooks looking too hard at individual numbers instead of team success, which voters historically reward
• Value wagers are out there in this market, especially with Michael Porter of Jr. of Nuggets, whose odds have fallen drastically since Sunday. Options explained below.

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Julius Randle had another fantastic game last night as the New York Knicks won their fourth straight game, and he remains the prohibitive favorite to win the Most Improved Player award.

But here is the thing: Randle was already a very good player before he signed with the Knicks. And most of the writers and broadcasters who vote on all NBA awards are aware of that fact. If those voters decide to vote for Randle as a way to somehow get someone from the Knicks on their ballots, he might win.

But if they follow the more traditional metrics, somebody else will get it. That is why Michael Porter Jr. of the Denver Nuggets has dropped from +15000 to +1600 since Sunday.

Most Improved Player Odds

Odds taking April 15

What is Driving The Most Improved Player Market, And Why?

Where the money is coming in always alters the market, but what is making Most Improved Player the most interesting is its wide-open nature.

All of the other races are more or less decided.

Nikola Jokic will likely finish first and Joel Embiid second for Most Valuable Player. Embiid was a worthy favorite before getting hurt, and Jokic has played 54 games to Embiid’s 36. ESPN.com is calling it “a runaway.”

Lonzo Ball will win Rookie of the Year if he can get back on the court before the playoffs, which is expected.

Quin Snyder is a lock for Coach Of the Year,

Jordan Clarkson is getting more credit than the more worthy Joe Ingles for the Utah Jazz and will get the Sixth Man Award, and the Defensive Player of the Year award will go to either Ruby Gobert or Ben Simmons. The guess here is Simmons because he has been openly campaigning for it. Randle should be in the conversation because he ranks No. 2 in Defensive Win shares, but most voters do not pay attention to those types of analytics.

“Everybody’s fighting for something.” — @J30_RANDLE pic.twitter.com/YdE3UopBB5

— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) April 15, 2021

Where Are The Sportsbooks Way Wrong in MIP Market?

Exbibit A is Jerami Grant of the Pistons, who was already a very good player who was a key member of the Denver Nuggets last season when they became the first team in NBA history to come back from two 3-1 deficits in the postseason. Prior to that, he was a member of an Oklahoma City Thunder team that went to the playoffs  three straight seasons from 2016-17 through 2018-19. The guy has 35 career playoff games under his belt, and the main reason why his scoring average has gone from 12.0 to 22.6 is because he is taking twice as many shots as he did last season. But his field goal percentage is down from 47.8 to 43.0, which is the opposite of “improved.” He is the best player on a horrible team, and voters do not reward horrible teams. He has no business even being in the conversation.

Exhibit B is Christian Wood of the Houston Rockets, who got off to a good start with his fourth NBA team but has seen his odds increase because of the simple fact that the Houston Rockets are a dumpster fire at 14-41, just a half-game ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves in the “race” to be the worst team in the NBA. He also has no business even being in the conversation. Again, voters do not reward players on losing teams (the exception to that rule is Rookie of the Year).

This columnist speaks regularly with the head oddsmakers at the biggest U.S. sportsbooks, and those folks are smart but do not think the same way as the journalists and broadcasters who are the actual voters. The books are only looking at the individual numbers. They are not speaking with the voters. This columnist has been covering the NBA for three decades and speaks on the phone with actual voters.

You are going to see a bunch of different guys get first-place votes for this award.

What if Zach Lavine scores TOO many points tonight?

— Zach Harper (@talkhoops) April 10, 2021

If Not Randle, Then Who Offers The Most Value At Long Odds?

Porter Jr. dropped from +15000 to +1600 because Jamal Murray tore his ACL, and the Nuggets will now need Porter Jr. to be their second-best scorer. He has shot 50 percent or better in 19 of the last 20 games, he is averaging 22.0 points and 9.1 rebounds this month, and he is shooting 42.3 perceent on 3-pointers, which is a better percentage than Steph Curry (42.4). He remains a good value bet at +2000.

Zion Williamson of the New Orleans Pelicans finished one vote shy of being the unanimous Rookie of the Year last season, upsetting Ja Morant. This season he has improved his field goal percentage from 58.3 to 61.8 percent, and his scoring average is up 4.3 points per game to 26.8. His free throw percentage, rebound, blocks steals and assist averages have all improved, and he will get some votes from the voters who favor the “narrative” over everything else. Hard to see him drawing enough broad support to win.

Zach LaVine of the Chicago Bulls is now in is seventh season and his averaging career-highs in points (27.5), field goal percentage (50.6), 3-point percentage (41.6), free throw percentage (84.8), rebounds (5.1) and assists (5.1) . His team is 10th in the East, which will not help him, but the Bulls now have Nikola Vucevic and could make some noise in the playoffs if they develop some chemistry and finish the regular season strong. Chicago has 18 games left, 17 of which are against the East. They lost to a horrible Orlando Magic team last night, so aa 180-degree turnaround is unlikely. But if Billy Donovan can get them winning  at a 90 percent clip and they finish above .550, LaVine is the best flyer wager out there at +4000 or more.

Vooch sees his former team tonight.@LiquiMolyUSA | #BullsNation pic.twitter.com/dct3b9vdAs

— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) April 14, 2021

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