We are being treated to a supersized NBA slate Wednesday with 10 games on the docket. Below, we’ll highlight Wednesday’s top NBA player prop predictions.
There are several intriguing matchups including the Boston Celtics trying to get revenge for the loss they took against the Dallas Mavericks by way of a Luka Doncic buzzer-beater in their first meeting.
MVP candidate G James Harden takes on his former team when the Brooklyn Nets host the Houston Rockets.
Also, the third and final regular-season meeting between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers, who met in the first round of last season’s Eastern Conference playoffs.
Wednesday’s NBA player prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4 p.m. ET.
Phoenix Suns PG Chris Paul OVER 14.5 points (-125)
This is the second meeting of the season between the Suns and Chicago Bulls and in the first game, Paul focused more on distributing rather than scoring.
Stylistically, the Bulls are a good matchup for CP3 because he likes to operate in the mid-range and that’s where Chicago’s defense is most vulnerable.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Paul is in the 100th percentile for point guards in mid-range shooting volume and the Bulls have the 2nd-worst mid-range defensive field-goal percentage and are 18th in opponent’s mid-range shooting volume.
Furthermore, I envision Paul getting newly acquired Bulls C Nikola Vucevic’s man to set him on-the-ball screens giving him iso opportunities vs. Vucevic.
If that happens, expect CP3 to cradle the big asleep, create space in the mid-range and knock down contested mid-range jumpers. This is essentially Paul’s Hall-of-Fame reel.
Finally, Paul is playing in the second half of a back-to-back but his rest splits in this spot are encouraging; he is averaging 16.6 points per game on .509/.407/1.000 shooting this season when playing on zero days rest.
BET C. Paul OVER 14.5 POINTS (-125) for 1 unit.
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Minnesota Timberwolves SF Anthony Edwards UNDER 21.5 points (-120)
Simply put, this is just too high of a points prop for a rookie playing against the 3rd-ranked team by defensive rating in the Association in the New York Knicks.
Edwards has shown flashes of superstardom recently with his peak performance being a career-high 42-point effort against the Suns March 18, but he’s averaging only 17.2 points per game on .386/.308./.772 shooting this season.
New York as a team is holding opposing small forwards to the lowest shooting performance and the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the league.
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Opposing small forwards are shooting an NBA-high 5.4 free throws per game, but Edwards averages only 3.1 free-throw attempts per game.
Lastly, these teams met once this season, and Edwards had only 12 points on 3-for-11 shooting in 31:38 minutes.
I get Edwards has had jaw-dropping moments recently but I’ll take the 4.3-point cushion on his season-average and 9.5-point cushion on his last game against the Knicks.
BET A. EDWARDS UNDER 21.5 POINTS (-120) for 1 unit.
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