We have an exciting 11-game NBA slate tonight. That means we will get a ton of players to choose from in the player prop pool. There are a couple of ESPN games today, but I’ll go with Nuggets-Pelicans as the marquee game. Denver is favored by 2.5 points and the total is set to 231.5, so we should see a ton of buckets.
As for today’s best NBA bets, player props are a fun way to wager on NBA games even if you don’t like a side or total. I like to find matchups that I can exploit or good situations due to injuries.
Let’s dive into a couple of these scenarios now.
Luka Doncic OVER 3.5 made threes
Doncic loves to let it fly from deep, averaging 8 three-point attempts per game this season. The volume will be there tonight and he has hit this mark in four of his last five games.
I also like the matchup against the Pacers, as Indiana is 25th in opponent’s three-point percentage. That means he should get plenty of clean looks in this game. If Doncic is open, there is a good chance he is making them pay.
Luka will fill up the scoreboard today. This is a risky bet but the odds are around +140 (shop around). At this number, I like the value.
Nikola Jokic OVER 25.5 points
The Joker is the favorite to win the NBA MVP this season and understandably so. Jokic is averaging 27 points per game (PPG) this year, 7th best in the NBA.
He has a great matchup here against the Pelicans, who rank 25th in points allowed and 28th in defensive rating. They are also in the bottom five of many other key defensive metrics. The last time these two teams faced off, Jokic scored 29 points.
This game has one of the highest totals on the board, so the game script should favor a lot of points. Jokic should be able to have a field day against this defense.
I’m also going to sprinkle a little pizza money on Joker to get a triple-double. You should be able to get that at +200 or better on most sites.
Donovan Mitchell UNDER 27.5 points
Spida comes into tonight averaging 25.4 PPG this season, but faces a sneaky tough matchup. Memphis ranks 10th in points and field goals allowed, and 8th in defensive rating. They have some guards and wings they can throw at Mitchell to try to slow him down tonight.
The game also has the possibility of turning into a blowout since the line is so large, which always helps an UNDER player prop.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook
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