In all sports, there is a need to empirically define individual performance. Baseball has a variety of stats to determine who is best, Hockey uses a points system for goals and assists, while Football has the Quarterback Rating.
One might suppose that it would be easy in NASCAR where finishing positions tell the most important tale. Since 2004 NASCAR has used what has basically been a “win-and-in” formula that we dissected earlier this week. And while that may or may not entirely stand up in 2021 with seven unique winners already in the first seven races of the 26-race regular season, it is basically the most important stat that bettors and fantasy players study.
After all, the most popular odds are those for outright wins. And, as we pointed out earlier, the favorites simply aren’t winning. That means handicappers have to look at a variety of stats including Average Running Position that we studied last month and the Driver Rating – NASCAR’s answer to the NFL’s QB Rating.
NASCAR’s Driver Rating is about as complicated as hyperbolic geometry or algebraic topology, but all you really need to know is that it combines several strength-based categories and doesn’t only rely on wins. A perfect Driver Rating is 150 and can’t be achieved without winning, however.
One reason this is important is because not all wins are created equal.
And not all strong runs end in great finishes. In the chart below, we have listed the 25 highest Driver Ratings during the first 45 days of the season. Michael McDowell won the Daytona 500, but with a rating of 94.2 he doesn’t come close to making this list and was only 11th-best that afternoon.
When we basically guaranteed that Hamlin would be one of the next unique winners on the NASCAR Cup schedule, it was partly because of his six top-fives in seven races. It was also because he commands six of the top 25 Driver Ratings. He has not backed into a strong finish; he has raced with the leaders from green to checkers in almost every race.
That is also why Hamlin earned the top spot in this week’s Power Rankings.
Likewise our enthusiasm for Kyle Larson is based on how strong he has finished and not just his Las Vegas Motor Speedway win. No one has earned a perfect Driver Rating this year, but Larson came closest with his 144.8 in the QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He mismanaged his tires at the end of that race and allowed Ryan Blaney (127.9) to overtake him at the end or else he would have snapped the unique winners’ streak two weeks ago.
Larson also has the second-best Driver Rating so far in 2021 with a 142.6 in the Pennzoil 400 – which further strengthens his Power Rating. Since Vegas and Atlanta are both similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, this will help handicap Larson near the top when the series heads to Kansas Speedway in early May.
William Byron was a dark horse entering the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but he also dominated his event with a 139.8 Driver Rating. By comparison, that was 20 points (or about 17 percent) higher than the next driver, Martin Truex Jr. who finished third. In a field of 25+ competitive cars, 17% is an important number.
Driver Rating can also balance some of the misfortune that inevitably occurs at the ends of some races.
Chase Elliott easily had the car to beat on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course, but he was forced to give up the lead when a late-race caution waved. He was patient in navigating traffic and cut across the nose of Hamlin while trying to get underneath Brad Keselowski. Elliott spun. His 21st-place finish O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 is far less important than his 120.0 Driver Rating.
Last week Truex was surprisingly strong on the Bristol Motor Speedway Dirt Track. His finish of 19th reflected what we initially believed defined his high water mark. We were wrong and he proved as much with the best Driver Rating for that race. He also made a late-race mistake and fell back, but by factoring in his strength, we have a concrete piece of data that will help handicap him near the top when the NASCAR Cup series returns to the dirt next spring. His win in the Truck series earlier in the day and this Driver Rating will make him a favorite at Knoxville Raceway later this year if he has a chance to run another Truck event.
Handicappers should compare this article to the one examining Average Running Position. There will be some overlap, but there will be some dark horses that appear in one place instead of the other.
Periodically through the 2021 season, we will revisit these stats as well as others we deem ‘strength-based’, so keep an eye peeled for future Statistically Speaking columns.
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