By Pat DeCola | Tuesday, March 2, 2021
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NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 NASCAR Cup Series drivers after Homestead-Miami Speedway and before Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
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20. Ryan Newman (Not ranked last week)
Season-high: 20
Season-low: Out
Comment: Newman has had a top-20 car, and a seventh-place finish combined with teammate Chris Buescher’s sportiness have us wondering if a Roush revival is imminent. “Rocketman” should have another shot at a decent finish this weekend, though don’t expect him to see the front of the field — he’s led in just one Vegas race since 2007.
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3 of 21
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19. Ryan Preece (-4)
Season-high: 15
Season-low: Out
Comment: Miami’s P21 broke Preece’s top-10 streak to open the season, but he kept his lead-lap-finish run in order. The JTG Daugherty driver has no previous Vegas top 10s, but did break the top 20 (P19) last fall for the first time.
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4 of 21
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18. Cole Custer (-6)
Season-high: 12
Season-low: 19
Comment: Custer was unable to manage a third straight top 13 to open the season but was running near the front of the field very late in the race. Sunday will mark the sophomore’s fourth career Vegas race (two last year, one in 2018) and he’s improved each time out.
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5 of 21
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17. Tyler Reddick (Not ranked last week)
Season-high: 17
Season-low: Out
Comment: If there are still people out there questioning Reddick’s talent after what we just saw, what more evidence do you need? He was the most entertaining driver in the final stage at Miami and should have something to prove this weekend after crashing out of last fall’s Vegas race.
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6 of 21
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16. Chris Buescher (+3)
Season-high: 16
Season-low: Out
Comment: Buescher going Beast Mode before the sun set might be the story of the race, as his significant amount of time at the front of the field could be a welcome sign of things to come. This weekend should offer another shot at prominence as Buescher nabbed a ninth-place finish at Vegas last fall, his sixth straight there inside the top 20.
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7 of 21
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15. Ryan Blaney (-1)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 15
Comment: Blaney’s 2020 woes appear to be continuing, with no finish better than 15th and no laps led yet. That said, Vegas should offer a solid turnaround opportunity, with five finishes of seventh or better his last seven trips out west.
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8 of 21
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14. Austin Dillon (+2)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 16
Comment: Dillon’s 12th-place finish was a solid rebound from a 34th-placer the week before, though his Las Vegas history suggests it could be another dip this weekend. The veteran only has two Sin City top 10s to speak of, though they’re both top fives and one was in this race last year.
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9 of 21
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13. Kyle Busch (-2)
Season-high: 6
Season-low: 13
Comment: Busch notched his first top 10 of the season at Miami but struggled with his car all day and has yet to factor into any of these races. Though he has no Vegas wins since 2009, a strong 8.67 average finish over his last six races there point to an opportunity to build some consistency.
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10 of 21
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12. Kyle Larson (+2)
Season-high: 10
Season-low: 14
Comment: It’s becoming increasingly apparent that Larson has shaken off all the rust — if there was any to begin with — after a stout top-five Miami finish. Vegas was one of the few tracks he raced at last year, and he notched his fifth top 10 in six races.
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11 of 21
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11. William Byron (+7)
Season-high: 11
Season-low: 18
Comment: Not a bad way to pick up your first top 10 of the season, eh? Byron’s time may be here, so this weekend should be a good barometer to see if he’s for real. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has just one top 10 at Vegas (2019), with the rest of his finishes coming outside the top 15.
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12 of 21
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10. Michael McDowell (+3)
Season-high: 10
Season-low: Out
Comment: After a third straight top 10 to open the season — something only he and Kevin Harvick have done — we’re all living the McDream right now. The only problem is: McDowell’s previous Las Vegas stats are borderline nightmarish, with a 32.9 average finish in 14 starts. Still, there’s no reason to count out the best story of 2021 just yet, and a 21st-place result last fall was his second-best showing at the track.
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13 of 21
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9. Alex Bowman (–)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 10
Comment: Bowman has now notched top 10s for two straight weeks, and we know the Daytona 500 pole-winner was fast before getting wrecked in the first race. Look for him to potentially break out this weekend, after he’s notched two top sixes in the last three Vegas races.
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14 of 21
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8. Christopher Bell (–)
Season-high: 8
Season-low: 16
Comment: Bell pretty much had nothing doing on Sunday at Miami, landing with a 20th-place finish after last week’s win. He had two kind of rough races at Vegas last year, but he’s seen plenty of success there in lower ranks, notching three runner-ups.
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15 of 21
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7. Brad Keselowski (-2)
Season-high: 5
Season-low: 7
Comment: Keselowski led 47 Miami laps early but seemed to just fade as the race wore on. Vegas is a place that he’s seemed to either be dominant throughout or gets stronger later on, with three wins to his credit. His 13th-place finish last fall was his first outside the top seven since 2012.
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16 of 21
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6. Kurt Busch (+1)
Season-high: 6
Season-low: 12
Comment: Busch has looked super strong to start the season, and it’ll be interesting if he’s able to keep up that speed this weekend at his home track. While he’s been anything but consistent there over the years, he pulled out a win at Vegas last fall.
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17 of 21
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5. Martin Truex Jr. (+1)
Season-high: 5
Season-low: 7
Comment: MTJ picked up his first top 10 of the season at Miami, leading 37 laps on a track layout that has just been in his wheelhouse the last half decade. Vegas is one of those places where he’s really showed his strength, with two wins and six top-four finishes since 2014.
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18 of 21
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4. Chase Elliott (-2)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 4
Comment: Elliott is still racking up points, but the finishes surely aren’t where the reigning champ wants them to be. He’s been hit-or-miss at Vegas over the years, with a pair of misses last year (26th and 22nd). That said, he did lead 70-plus laps in each.
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19 of 21
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3. Joey Logano (–)
Season-high: 3
Season-low: 4
Comment: Logano seemed to be a non-factor at Miami after coming in as a race favorite and leading 12 laps at the start. He’s led double-digits in all three races this year, however, a trend that is unlikely to end at Vegas this weekend, where he’s won two of the last four events.
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20 of 21
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2. Denny Hamlin (-2)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 4
Comment: Hamlin won the Miami pole but never quite made it back to the front to lead laps after starting from the rear for an unapproved adjustment. Vegas could be a struggle as well, as Hamlin has just one finish better than 10th since 2017, with no career wins.
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21 of 21
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1. Kevin Harvick (+3)
Season-high: 1
Season-low: 4
Comment: Though we have yet to see Harvick dominate — oh, it’s coming, I’m sure — he’s a top-10 machine and essentially never finishes outside it unless something freaky happens. Another top 10 is certainly in order this weekend at Vegas (he has four straight there), but it should also offer his best shot yet at a win. The 2014 champ has two Vegas victories from 2015 on.