By RJ Kraft | Saturday, March 27, 2021
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We’re approaching this race as something of a wild card along the lines of Daytona and Talladega, and the commentary and analysis will reflect that mindset.
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Ryan Blaney
Why: I have plenty of uses with Blaney and I like the starting position — third. Blaney was one of seven drivers to place in the top 10 on the 10-lap averages board in both practices. I’ve been close to playing him in recent weeks and haven’t done it. On Sunday, he gets the call.
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Christopher Bell
Why: I’ve had Bell near the top of my board for this race because of his dirt background. He starts 15th but I think he’ll find his way to the front. I have plenty of uses here as well.
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Alex Bowman
Why: Bowman’s another driver I’ve been eying for my roster all weekend and nothing from the practices has changed my thinking there. He was in the top five in both practices on the 10-lap averages board.
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Ryan Newman
Why: So admittedly, I looked at the data hoping I could find a reason to stick with Austin Dillon, and I couldn’t find one as his 10-lap averages were rough in both practices. But that dive into the data showed me Newman could be a sneaky play — his Roush Fenway teammate Chris Buescher falls in the same category. Newman was the 11th-best on the 10-lap board in final practice.
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Kyle Busch
Why: For my last active driver, I wanted a driver who was going to start with track position and had solid 10-lap averages. Hamlin and Truex weren’t options for me on usage and I like a lot of other tracks better with them, but one of their teammates was a fit. Busch will start fourth, had the ninth-best 10-lap average in final practice and the fifth-best 15-lap average. Is it a risk for a driver without a ton of recent dirt experience? Sure, but I have plenty of uses here and this is still Bristol. He knows how to get around.
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Garage: Tyler Reddick
Why: Reddick has a dirt-racing background and it showed in Friday’s practices. He wasn’t afraid to try the top and he was among the top 10 in 10-lap averages for both practice sessions — third for final practice. He was also in the top three on the 15-lap average board in both practices. The starting spot — 27th — is why I have him in the garage to start.
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Just missed the cut:
— Kyle Larson: I had warmed to the idea of using him on Sunday and then he had to drop to the rear for an engine change and that was enough to keep me in the ‘leave him out’ camp. This will be a different story with bonus picks.
— Chase Briscoe: This was the cut that hurt a bit. I felt Briscoe and Reddick were primed for great starting spots had the qualifying races happened. Briscoe’s 10-lap average in final practice was right there with Busch, Blaney and Newman. He’s going to line up 25th, and I ultimately felt I could only take one between him and Reddick.
— Austin Dillon: He has a solid dirt record but the 10-lap averages were rough in both practices.
— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. : Similar to Dillon, didn’t love the lap averages here.
— Joey Logano: I entertained this thought briefly based on lap averages but then I considered the upcoming schedule and decided against it.
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Race winner: Kyle Larson
Manufacturer: Chevrolet
Organization: Hendrick Motorsports
Top Chevrolet: Kyle Larson
Top Ford: Ryan Blaney
Top Toyota: Denny Hamlin
I don’t want to risk the Hamlin use here when he has a lot of strong tracks left, but I like the speed I’ve seen all weekend for a bonus pick.
If I am not playing Larson, I planned to stack as many bonus picks with him as I could as a safety measure. That plan hasn’t changed despite him moving to the rear. Remember, there’s no risk associated with the bonus picks since there is no usage lost here.