Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits 18th home run in win over Astros 

Guerrero launched his 18th home run of the season in Saturday’s 6-2 win over the Astros at Sahlen Field, reclaiming the league lead from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. He wanted to see every second of it, too, walking backwards out of the box and pausing just a few feet up the first-base line, bat still in hand, until the ball cleared the wall in left.

You’ve seen this show before. Moments like that are why Guerrro has been one of baseball’s most hyped young bats since the teenage days of grainy video footage out of the Dominican Republic. Guerrero has finally evolved, though. Watching him play requires a bigger bingo card now, with squares that just didn’t exist before like “infield single” and “standout defensive play.”

Guerrero’s 3.4 WAR lead all of baseball, and while his value leans heavily on his bat as a first baseman, his baserunning and defense are now part of the package, not something he’s valuable in spite of. We’re into June now, too, where hot starts become hot seasons.

By the time the game ended, Guerrero led the Major Leagues in home runs (18), RBIs (47), on-base percentage (.439), slugging percentage (.672), OPS (1.111), and total bases (135). He leads the American League in hits (68) and average (.338). It’s become a video game. 

“I’m not about numbers,” Guerrero said through a team translator. “I’m very proud right now. I feel very proud about everything good that I do on the team to help the team.” 

Saturday’s performance by the Blue Jays was tight, too. They have all the talent they need to make a deep run with additions expected along the way, but we haven’t always seen their cleanest, most efficient brand of baseball this season. That was certainly the case on Friday in an ugly, 13-1 loss to the Astros, but one day after doing all of the big things wrong, they did all of the little things right.

Here’s how Vladdy did it, in all three phases: 

Guerrero’s skyscraper to left field in the fifth came on a slider, which shouldn’t be surprising. Guerrero has been dominant against breaking pitches this season, using his incredible eye to force pitchers to throw them over the plate. When a slider or curveball slips from the edge to the heart of the plate, well, that ball typically ends up in a parking lot.

With 18 home runs and 47 RBIs through 56 games this season, Guerrero is well on track to make a run for 40-plus home runs and 100-plus RBIs. Those numbers make sense after what Guerrero has done through April and May, but they aren’t what anyone expected six months ago. 

“Whatever I have to do for the team to win, I’ll do that,” Guerrero said. “I’m willing to do anything, defensively or offensively. If for some reason I make an error, I’ll keep my head up and try to keep helping the team. It’s all about winning here. I will do anything to help my team win.” 

Guerrero’s scoops and splits at first base this season have impressed, but now that he’s growing more comfortable with first base as a position, you’re seeing his decision-making shine, too. With a runner on first and no outs in the first, Carlos Correa rolled a slow grounder to third and beat the throw to first. The throw drew Guerrero off the bag, but as Jose Altuve rounded second and tried to advance to third on Guerrero, he fired a strike across the diamond to Bo Bichette to nail Altuve.

“One play always makes the big difference,” said manager Charlie Montoyo. “To me, that made the big difference in this game because of what happened last night. All of the sudden, here’s two base hits, and if Altuve gets to third base, here we go again. If it’s the top of the lineup and they score, here we go again. Just to make that play, it was huge in this game.”

Alex Bregman made a diving stab on a Guerrero grounder at third base in the fourth inning, and in 2020, Guerrero would have been out by a few steps. Not in 2021.

Guerrero beat it out for an infield single with an average sprint speed of 29.0 feet-per-second. The league average — and Guerrero’s average — is 27.0 feet/sec while “elite” speed is 30 feet/sec, so this is well beyond what you’ll typically see from him. To put it simply, the speed Guerrero reached going up the first-base line is the exact same speed that Fernando Tatis Jr. averages.