San Diego’s Joe Musgrove threw the first no-hitter of the 2021 MLB season on Friday, helping the Padres blank the Rangers 3-0 as -190 road favorites. The under 9 easily cashed. One thing we’ve noticed so far this season is the red-hot start for unders. They went 6-3 on Friday to improve to 57-47 (55%) on the season. Unders are often the smart bet because the public is biased toward overs, wanting to root for a high scoring game with lots of hits and home runs. But oddsmakers know this, which leads to inflated or shaded totals that contrarian bettors can buy-low and go under on. This, combined with the “dead ball” and an early advantage to pitchers over hitters has resulted in a under-bonanza for early season MLB bettors.
Now we turn our attention to Saturday, where the weekend kicks off with 15 MLB games, 7 NBA games, 10 NHL games and. last but not least, UFC Fight Night: Holland vs Vettori. For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We’ll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves and late sharp action across all the major sports. We’ll also be joined by our good friend Thomas Gable at The Borgata in Atlantic City.
In the meantime, let’s discuss where the money is flowing for several Saturday MLB games…
1:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (3-4) at Tampa Bay Rays (3-4)
The Rays upset the Yankees 10-5 in yesterday’s series opener, cashing as + 125 home dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, New York sends out Domingo German (0-1, 9.00 ERA) while the Rays counter with Chris Archer (0-1, 13.50 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a modest -125 road favorite. Gambler’s Fallacy says the Yankees are the “better” team and must bounce back and win today. However, despite the majority of public bettors backing New York, we’ve seen the Yankees tumble from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rays (+ 115 to + 105). Tampa Bay has value as a divisional dog with a high total and a dog with a line move in their favor (20-15, 57% this season). Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 33-20 (62%). The Yankees are 3-4 as a favorite this season. The Rays are 2-1 as a dog.
4:05 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (3-5) at San Francisco Giants (4-3)
The Giants took care of business in Friday’s opener, beating the Rockies 3-1 as -150 home favorites. In today’s Game 2, Colorado starts Chi Chi Gonzalez (1-0, 5.40 ERA) and the Giants give the ball to Logan Webb (0-1, 5.06 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -150 home favorite. Wiseguys have rushed to the window to lay the chalk with the Giants, steaming this line up from -150 to -175. Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 33-20 (62%) this season. If the line is steamed 20-cents or more these teams are 10-5 (67%). Home favorites -150 or more are 22-11 (67%). The Giants’ advantage may come in the way of pitching. San Francisco is 10th in MLB in ERA at 3.40 ERA. The Rockies are 20th at 4.57. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some possible liability to a higher-scoring game. The forecast calls for 60 degrees and 10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center.
7:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (5-2) at Atlanta Braves (3-4)
The Braves dominated last night’s series opener, winning 8-1 as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch the Phillies give the ball to Zach Eflin (0-0, 1.29 ERA) and the Braves counter with Ian Anderson (0-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -140 home favorite. The public is all over the Braves at home off a win, yet we’ve seen this line tumble from Atlanta -140 to -135. Some shops are closer to -130. This signals some respected action grabbing the Phillies at plus money, causing oddsmakers to adjust the line in their favor (+ 130 to + 120). The Phillies have value as a divisional dog and a dog with a line move in their direction (20-15, 57%). We’ve also seen some liability on the under, with the total of 8.5 juiced to the under at -115. Some shops may even be trending down to 8, which makes the hook critical. The wind is blowing in from right field at 10 MPH at SunTrust Park. Divisional unders are 39-28 (58%_ this season.