And here we go!
With one of the wildest trade deadline frenzies in Major League Baseball history in the books, the stretch run of the season can now begin. As the calendar flips to August, just two months separate us from October baseball. That gives every contender (or pretender) one last run to show the sport just how good they truly are.
So, who will make the playoffs? Who will miss out?
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Here’s a prediction for the entire 2021 MLB playoff field, which is back to the standard (since 2012, at least) five teams qualifying from both leagues.
American League
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
Why they are the pick: Pitching, pitching, pitching. Tampa Bay, fresh off a sweep of the Red Sox, has seized control back in the division. Nelson Cruz’s presence will be felt and help support a pitching staff that’s allowed (by far) the fewest runs (419) in the division. The defending AL champs will be back in the dance to defend their crown.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
Why they are the pick: No division leader in baseball holds a bigger lead (nine games) heading into play on August 2 than the White Sox. When the second-place team is trading a starting second baseman with 18 home runs (Cesar Hernandez) to the first-place team at the deadline, you know it’s over. It’s all about tuning up for October on the South Side, but don’t worry about Tony La Russa keeping this group motivated.
AL West: Houston Astros
Why they are the pick: The American League’s best run differential (+149) belongs to the Astros. They win at home (34-20) and on the road (30-22). Adding Kendall Graveman will be a huge boost to a bullpen that’s been the lone team weakness. Alex Bregman should be back to give the lineup more thump soon. The only question will be if the road through the AL goes through Houston.
AL Wild Card: Oakland Athletics
Why they are the pick: Adding Starling Marte at the deadline was a huge deal, and one that will pay dividends down the stretch. Oakland’s defense, bullpen and muscle memory of second-half success will carry the way while the AL East teams beat up on each other over the next two months.
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
Why they are the pick: Here they come. The trades for Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo changed the makeup of this team, and it’s already paying dividends. It’s fair to question the pitching and Aroldis Chapman, but this team is likely due some positive regression. The Red Sox are starting to teeter, especially against left-handed pitching. The Yankees can feast on the Orioles down the stretch while fighting it out with the Blue Jays and Red Sox. It might take game No. 163 to decide a tiebreaker, but I have the Yankees slightly edging Toronto for the final playoff spot in this league.
National League
NL East: New York Mets
Why they are the pick: There’s a lot to worry about with this Mets team. They don’t hit enough. Francisco Lindor is hurt. We likely won’t see Jacob deGrom until September. The Braves and Phillies added. But in a division where all three “contenders” are stuck in neutral, I’ll take the team currently ahead to (barely) hold on. Mark down Oct. 1-3 on your calendar. Mets at Braves for three games to end the season. The division will be settled there, perhaps by a highlight-reel play involving Javier Baez.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
Why they are the pick: As in the AL, the biggest division lead in this league can be found in the Central. Despite a red-hot run by the Cincinnati Reds (more on them shortly), the Brewers woke up on August 2 with a seven-game cushion. No team in the sport can boast a better combination of top-three starters, late-game relievers and team defense. It’s an October formula.
NL West: San Francisco Giants
Why they are the pick: I know, I know. The Dodgers added Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. The Dodgers have the better run differential. We’re supposed to just assume the Dodgers will overtake the Giants. Well, I don’t buy it. The Giants have been better all year. They added Kris Bryant, and will soon welcome back Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt and Tommy La Stella from the IL. This is baseball’s deepest offensive roster. Plus, only three games remain vs. LA. And the Giants have more than held their own (8-8, even run differential) in head-to-head battles.
NL Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers
Why they are the pick: The most star-studded wild card team ever? Or should we call them the most dangerous wild card team ever? There’s no doubt in my mind that the defending World Series champions will be back in October. It’s just a matter of the route taken. If a huge gap is present between Los Angeles and the No. 2 wild card team, will Dave Roberts and the front office try to chase down the Giants in the season’s final week or rest and set up his team for a one-and-done game?
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati Reds
Why they are the pick: The upset of all upsets. After months of baseball fans almost reflexively saying that three teams from the NL West will be in October, a monkey wrench has arrived. Cincinnati is hot, and there’s no reason to believe this team will be going away. That’s especially true with a schedule that still has 35 games left vs. a combination of the Twins, Pirates, Cubs, Marlins, Tigers and Nationals. Plus, the Padres look far from a lock. Fernando Tatis Jr. is hurt, the starting pitching depth is suspect and general manager A.J. Preller struck out on potential blockbusters for Scherzer and Jose Berrios.
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Joe Giglio may be reached at jgiglio@njadvancemedia.com.