Get ready for a season of Mets trade rumors.
After a big, yet not over-the-top offseason of spending in Queens, there’s a feeling of unfinished business around Steve Cohen’s first year as Mets owner. Any team willing to offer a record deal to a pitcher like Trevor Bauer still has some money to burn on the right player at the right time.
Perhaps that’s a slugger like Kris Bryant now or sometime during the season. As the Cubs enter transition mode, Bryant and the Mets have been connected in rumors all winter. Here are some pros and cons to the Mets engaging in trade talks for the 29-year-old slugger.
Pros
He’s been through and performed in October
For a team trying to take the next step and win, this matters. We’re talking about a player that’s appeared in 39 postseason games. He’s been to the playoffs five times. He’s played in the World Series, and helped the Cubs break the drought by winning it all in 2016. Bryant is young enough to still have plenty of baseball left in the tank, but experienced enough to be on the other side of the field the last time (2015) the Mets had a team capable of winning it all.
Contract drive
This isn’t just any year for Bryant. It’s contract drive time. Thanks to service time manipulation by the Cubs back in 2015, Bryant’s free agency was delayed by a full year. If he made the Opening Day roster in 2015 (which he clearly should have), Bryant would have been a free agent this winter. Instead, he’ll hit next year’s open market at the age of 30. It’s less than ideal for any player. It can be even worse for a slugger coming off a down 2020.
If Bryant is going to rake in $100M or more on the open market, he’s going to need to rake in 2021. Perhaps a post-trade contract drive for a contender could spur on big offers in free agency similar to how J.D. Martinez parlayed a blitz of hitting (1.107 OPS, 29 HR in 62 games) in late 2017 into a big offer from the Boston Red Sox. Bryant’s quest for cash on the open market can help the Mets win the NL East.
Versatility always helps
The Met have an odd roster full of good bats, but questionable gloves. Bryant fits in well, but does it with some versatility attached. Is Bryant the best defensive third baseman? No. But he’d be an upgrade there from J.D. Davis. Can he track everything down in left field? No, but he has experience out there. Can he play right field everyday? Of course not, but he can get by on a day Michael Conforto needs to take a rest. The more versatile defenders, the better for manager Luis Rojas.
Cons
He’s in decline
There’s no other way around it. Here are Bryant’s first three seasons compared to his last three seasons.
2015-2017: .288/.388/.527, 141 OPS+, 5.9 WAR per 650 plate appearances
2018-2020: .269/.368/.478, 121 OPS+, 3.2 WAR per 650 plate appearances
The first three years of Bryant’s career were unbelievable. MVP-level great. It felt like the start to a Hall of Fame career. Since? More good than great. Shoulder issues have contributed to decline. His strikeout rate keeps going up. He walked less in 2020. He’s approaching the age of 30. None of this is to suggest that Bryant is done. If he maintains his 2018-2020 level and stays healthy for the next five or six seasons, we’re talking about a player that will end up with a similar career WAR to Josh Donaldson or Buster Posey. It’s really good, but it may no longer be great.
Money (and prospects) could be spent wiser
The Mets likely have one more big move in them this season, and perhaps a big signing between now and the start of the 2022 campaign. Bryant would make the 2021 Mets better, but is surrendering prospect capital worth it after making the Francisco Lindor trade? Would the Mets be better served saving pennies for a run at, say, Justin Verlander next winter? Every dollar spent now or prospect cashed in this summer is one less dollar to spend or prospect to trade in the future.
Is the bat really that much better than J.D. Davis?
Let’s play a guessing game. One of these players is Bryant. The other is Davis, the current Mets third baseman that would most likely be replaced by Bryant and could head back to Chicago in a possible midseason blockbuster.
Player A: 35 HR, .365 OBP, .853 OPS, 121 OPS+
Player B: 28 HR, .370 OBP, .853 OPS, 129 OPS+
Player A is Bryant. Player B is Davis. The numbers are since the start of the 2019 season. Unless there’s a drastic difference in production in 2021, you can make a good case (including identical OPS marks) that there’s almost no difference at the plate between these two players now.
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Joe Giglio may be reached at jgiglio@njadvancemedia.com.