The projections, which tend to skew conservative, have the Mets going 88-74 and finishing second in the NL East — 2.0 games behind the 90-72 Atlanta Braves.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, projected to go 94-68 and win the NL West, are the only team in the NL projected to win more than 90.
Writes Szymborski about the Mets:
The Mets, meanwhile, have holes, but they probably underperformed their abilities as a group in 2021 and are close enough that with a bit of luck — I know, not a typical Mets phenomena — they can catch the Braves, especially in the Freeman-less scenario.
Elsewhere in the NL, the St. Louis Cardinals are projected to finish 89-73 and win the NL Central, and the San Diego Padres are projected to finish 90-72, which (in the current playoff format) would give them the first wild card spot.
In the current playoff format, the 88-74 Mets would finish tied with the 88-74 Milwaukee Brewers for the second wild card spot.
However, the playoffs are expected to expand as part of the new CBA, which could mean going from 10 playoff teams to 12 or 14. In either scenario (12 or 14), the Mets would be in.
As far as the rest of the NL East beyond the Mets and Braves, the projections have the Philadelphia Phillies going 82-80, the Miami Marlins with a record of 80-82, and the Washington Nationals finishing 75-87.
The projections, from Dan Szymborski, will be updated when the lockout ends and player moves are made. After going through the methodology and algorithms, and taking into account depth charts, playing time projections, injury risks, and other factors, here’s how the initial projections were done:
The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. This is actually much less complex than it sounds.