ORLANDO, Fla. — When the MLB owners meetings began on Tuesday, a sense of pessimism and frustration with players permeated the lobby and conference room of the Waldorf-Astoria Orlando.
What did the union want out of this round of collective bargaining talks, the league and owners wondered. What principle were they fighting for?
By the time the meetings ended on Thursday morning, that frustration had given way to at least a few seeds of cautious optimism that a delay to spring training would be minimal, and that the regular season would begin on time.
Whether or not that is realistic remains to be seen. But we should have a much clearer sense on Saturday afternoon, when the owners will present a new proposal to players at a meeting in New York City.
Will that proposal stimulate conversation that will lead to further negotiating sessions and an agreement? Or will it result in pointed PR statements from both sides, and tweets from players questioning commissioner Rob Manfred’s ability to negotiate in good faith?
Without revealing specifics of their proposal, owners and club executives in Orlando are hoping for the former.
But it’s worth bearing in mind that owners and league officials liking their own proposal is expected. Everything hinges on how the players react.
One source of optimism on the league side is the lack in these talks of a contentious principle. In 2020, that issue was whether players should receive full prorated pay for the pandemic-shortened season.
This time, neither side is trying to change the time to free agency or arbitration. The league and players have already taken the significant step of agreeing on the idea of a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players.
That common framework is dampened somewhat by the fact that the owners and players are nearly $100 million apart on the amount of money that should be in that pool.
Some on the league side were irritated when the players reduced their ask from $110 million to $105 million, a move that struck the other side as minuscule.
But again, the framework is there. Soon we will see how much MLB moves on the numbers.
A telling element to watch on Saturday is the tone of player reaction. Manfred on Thursday downplayed the impact of the insults directed at him lately, calling them “strategic.” Some players would surely contend that their animus is sincere.
If we hear little from Saturday’s meeting other than the scheduling of another meeting, it will be a sign that rhetoric has given way to negotiation, and spring training has a chance to start in late February or early March.
If we see leaks and tweets, we’re probably in for a lengthier labor war.