Champagne Stakes and All Aged States ultimate guide, race tips, form, Trevor Marshallsea column

In the 65 years that it’s been possible, only six horses have pulled off the stunning feat of winning Sydney’s two-year-old Triple Crown – the Golden Slipper, the Sires’ Produce Stakes, and the Champagne Stakes.

And among that highly-rated half dozen, only one filly has swept the board, with the mighty Burst taking all three a whole 30 years ago.

On Saturday at Randwick a previously unsung filly named Fireburn will set out to prove just how good she is in attempting to become the first galloper since super colt Pierro 10 years ago to win all three, as Sydney’s autumn carnival comes to a close with Champagne Stakes and All Aged Stakes day.

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Fireburn’s story has become a great racing yarn very quickly. Trained by knockabout former Orange bakery worker Gary Portelli at Warwick Farm – who prepared $20,000 filly She Will Reign to win the $2 million Slipper first prize in 2017 – Fireburn was bred by her Sydney part-owner Louis Mihalyka after be bought a mare for just $22,000 to put to his stallion Rebel Dane.

Portelli had trained Rebel Dane too. He won two Group 1 sprints – at a time of great sprinters like Chautauqua, Buffering and Lankan Rupee – but looked like he’d never make it as a sire. For starters, no stud farms really wanted him, so he kept racing until the age of seven – unusual for a stallion – which was when Portelli teased that second G1 out of him, at Moonee Valley in 2016, at odds of $61.

When Rebel Dane finally started breeding, it was a fairly ordinary tale indeed. Only 30-plus mares were sent to him in each of his first two years, and that dropped off to 11 and 14. The big stallions usually cover about 160-plus mares each year.

Still, out of his second crop came this filly under the same owner and trainer, Fireburn. She flopped in her first start last December, won her next two in moderate class, went for a short spell, came back and earned a place in the Slipper by taking the G2 Sweet Embrace Stakes.

She still went into the 1200-metre Slipper tipped by not many judges and drifted out to the fifth line of betting to start at $12. Then it all looked over when, squeezed up on the running rail in the packed 16-horse field, she nearly fell at the 600 metre mark. Most horses don’t recover from knocks like that, but in the home straight the little filly rallied up along the rail, picked her way through a couple of gaps and burst clear for a breathtaking victory, by 2.5 lengths, no less.

Fireburn stepped up to the 1400m of the Sires’ Produce Stakes and again slid up along the inside to finish first of the 12, by 1.4 lengths, this time as the $2.50 favourite.

Making the story more sweet is the fact her jockey in those last two wins has been Brenton Avdulla. Showing yet again the bravery and danger of a jockey’s life, the 31-year-old essentially broke his neck in a fall last August, thought about giving it away for a less risky pursuit – I dunno, defusing unexploded bombs or something – but instead came back in February, and now has his 11th and 12th G1s with Fireburn on his belt, with the very, very strong chance of a third on Saturday.

Fireburn will have to conquer the extra 200m that has found many a raw two-year-old out for the 1600m Champagne. This time, though, her opponents have stayed away in droves, perhaps wary of another wet track, but most definitely fearful of Fireburn. There were only six acceptors, Fireburn is a very short odds-on favourite at around $1.50, and she should seal the Triple Crown with ease.

But let’s remember this is, in case you weren’t sure, a horse race. That always means anything can happen, as Avdulla knows too well.

The Champagne Stakes – a time-honoured event first run in 1861 and thus as old as the Melbourne Cup – is race four on a 10-event card also highlighted by the G1 All Aged Stakes (1400m), a weight-for-age (WFA) sprint with a capacity 14-horse field headed by star mares Forbidden Love and Tofane, gun four-year-old stallion Mo’Unga, and Gai Waterhouse’s three-year-old colt In The Congo.

There’s also four G3s in a bumper meeting.

WHAT IS IT?

Champagne Stakes and All Aged Stakes day, the last day of Randwick’s autumn carnival, aka, The Championships.

WHEN’S IT ON?

Saturday from 11.30am till 5.05pm.

WHAT’S IT WORTH?

$2.2 million, with the Champagne worth $500,000 and the All Aged $600,000.

WHERE CAN YOU WATCH IT?

Channel 7 and Sky Racing. You can also listen on your local racing station, and Foxsports.com.au will have live news and updates, including video soon after the race. Racing NSW will also stream the race live on their website or app – racingnsw.com.au.

MAIN PLOTLINES

Fireburn sets out to emulate some of the finest juveniles this country has seen by completing the Triple Crown, and become only the second filly and the first since 1992 to do so.

She’s a roaring odds-on favourite and with only five rivals bad luck shouldn’t come into it. Sydney’s stupidly wet autumn seems to be coming to an end, with only a bit more rain said to be possible by the weather boffins leading up to the race. With all the rain that’s already fallen, it’s still likely to be in the soft to heavy range though. Fireburn’s won thrice on heavy – including the wettest there is at a Heavy 10 – but also twice on good surfaces.

But while most rivals have stayed away, a couple of good ones haven’t. The Anthony Cummings-trained She’s Extreme, another filly, has shown some good form, was an unlucky seventh in the Slipper, though Fireburn beat her fair and square in the Sires.

And there’s a colt who’s come through different races called Williamsburg, who’s won his past two starts impressively, and a Melbourne visitor named Letsrollthedice who’s not to be overlooked.

The other G1 is the All Aged Stakes (1400m), the time-honoured traditional closer of the autumn G1s. After the field was finalised it had three co-favourites at $4.80, all from different formlines. The mare Forbidden Love is one of a few who missed out in the 1600m Doncaster and is seeking to make amends here. In The Congo is a smart three-year-old seeking to make hay with a relatively light weight under the WFA scale. And very capable four-year-old stallion Mo’unga should have freshness on his side, since he’s only had one run since a spell – a second in a Caulfield G1 in February – having been scratched from an intended run in Sydney on March 18. And the new people’s horse – Shelby Sixtysix – has a chance to have a run but is second emergency so needs two of the top 14 to be scratched.

Elsewhere, highly-rated three-year-old filly Espiona has a chance to redeem herself in the G3 James H B Carr Stakes after a couple of disappointing runs, an exciting 3YO gelding called Straight Arron might prove himself the real deal in the G3 Frank Packer Plate, and Kementari – who went to stud, proved infertile and came back to racing as a gelding – could add another win in his surprising second racetrack career in the G3 Hall Mark Stakes.

MAJOR RACES ON THE UNDERCARD

Race 3, Frank Packer Plate (2000m) 12.40pm: A G3 for 3YOs named after Kerry’s dad, who was also a bigwig in racing.

Straight Arron set many tongues a’wagging with a sizzling last start win over 1600m, his second from three starts, and could go on to big things for the Chris Waller stable. He’s an odds-on favourite for this in a 13-horse field and is in fact the only runner at less than double figure odds, with Jalmari – the horse he beat last time, and from the Goulburn stable of Danny Williams and Shelby Sixtysix – at $11.

TIPS: 1. Straight Arron; 2. War Eternal; 3. Raging Bull; 4. Jalmari.

Race 5, James H B Carr Stakes (1400m) 1.50pm: A G3 for 3YO fillies.

Espiona was the talk of the turf last spring after two ballistic wins in her first two starts. Massive things were expected in the autumn, but the Waller-trained filly has come second, third and eighth. This is a far easier field for her though, she might not have liked the very heavy track last start, and she’s had a month’s break from racing to freshen up and start again. She’s an odds-on fave from $8.50 chance Comrade Rosa for gun trainer John O’Shea and jockey Brenton Avdulla.

TIPS: 1. Espiona; 2. Cap Estel; 3. Comrade Rosa; 4. Party For One.

Race 6, Hall Mark Stakes (1200m) 2.25pm: A G3 sprint for 3YOs and upwards named after a past great who won the Champagne Stakes in 1933.

Kementari ($9.50) was a highly-rated young colt who won a couple of big races, took on Winx a couple of times, then retired to stud as a much-hyped stallion. Unfortunately he was found to be firing blanks, so eventually was returned to racing, as a gelding. Though widely written off he’s won three pretty big races – in Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane – and he’s coming back from a spell to continue his second coming here. He’s only co-third favourite, however, as the race is dominated by odds-on pop Big Parade, who was beaten only by the in-form Shelby Sixtysix in a tougher race than this when resuming from a spell last start, and has a good second-up record. His odds look a bit short, however, in a field including other handy types like Count De Rupee ($8), Quantico ($9.50), Signore Fox ($9.50), Gem Song ($9.50) and Roheryn ($13), a wet-loving first-up specialist resuming from a spell for the Godolphin stable.

TIPS: 1. Big Parade; 2. Kementari; 3. Gem Song; 4. Signore Fox.

Race 7, JRA Plate (2000m) 3.10pm: A G3 handicap for 3YOs and upwards featuring a couple stepping up in distance after missing out in the 1600m Doncaster.

Icebath is a deserved ($3.10) favourite after two very fine thirds at G1 level in the Doncaster and the G1 Queen Of The Turf. Those two runs came on the past two Saturdays, so can she back up three weeks straight after two tough runs in energy-sapping heavy going, and under topweight of 59kg? It’s a big impost for a 5YO mare. Polly Grey, a 7YO mare, also has a big weight at 58.5kg, but has had three weeks since her last run, when second in a 2000m G3. It’s an even field also including $5.50 chance Maximal, as well as well-performed Kiwi raider Marroni ($5), who’s a 5YO gelding with a light 55kg, and Brutality ($8.50).

TIPS: 1. Marroni; 2. Polly Grey; 3. Icebath; 4. Numerian.

MAIN EVENTS

Race 4, Champagne Stakes (1600m) 1.15pm: A Group 1 for 2YOs and the last leg of the Triple Crown.

First Winner

Exeter (1861)

Last Winner

Captivant (2021)

Famous Winners

Pierro (2012), Dance Hero (2004), Bounding Away (1986), Red Anchor (1984), Luskin Star (1977), Vain (1969), Sky High (1960), Flight (1943), Ajax (1937), Hall Mark (1933).

Winners of Sydney’s 2YO Triple Crown

Baguette (1970), Luskin Star (1977), Tierce (1991), Burst (1992), Dance Hero (2004), Pierro (2012)

Major chances

Fireburn ($1.50), see above. She’s the raging odd-son favourite for a good reason. Form and breeding suggests the 1600m won’t bother her, and she’s won on heavy and good. If you’re looking hard for doubts, she hasn’t raced on soft going, and some can like it heavy yet dislike soft. Small fields like this can also lead to slow pace, which some horses don’t like. But she does look the goods.

Logical main danger looks to be She’s Extreme ($3.70), who ran a stout second to Fireburn last start over 1400m and should get the 1600m. But the main threat could be Williamsburg ($8.50). He’s a superbly-bred colt from the old-and-new training partnership of Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou, who’s won his past two in fine style, the latest showing he could get 1600m with a comfortable win in a six-horse field at Randwick. Has won on heavy and soft. Let’srollthedice ($11) is a very promising Melbourne colt from the in-form Danny O’Brien yard who made ground from the back when third to Fireburn and She’s Extreme in the Sires’, suggesting he’ll also like the mile here.

TIPS: 1. Fireburn; 2. Williamsburg; 3. Let’srollthedice; 4. She’s Extreme.

Race 7, All Aged Stakes (1400m) 3.50pm: A time-honoured G1 sprint for all-comers under the weight-for-age scale, designed to let the best prosper, whereas handicaps even out the field.

First winner

Maid Of The Lake (1865)

Last winner

Kolding (2021)

Famous winners

Atlantic Jewel (2012), Sunline (2000, 2002), Rough Habit (1992, 1993), Emancipation (1984), Tobin Bronze (1967), Sky High (1961), Tulloch (1958), Bernborough (1946), Ajax (1938, 1939, 1940), Peter Pan (1935), Wakeful (1902), Carbine (1889, 1890), Briseis (1876).

Major Chances

Mo’Unga ($4.80) is a very talented young stallion in the astute care of trainer Annabel Neasham. He’s won two G1s – beating the great Verry Elleegant in one of them over this same 1400m at Randwick last August – has run second in three others, and been close in a couple more, such as his fourth in last year’s prestigious Cox Plate. He’s had a different preparation to most for this. Resumed from a spell for a second in the Futurity Stakes at Caulfield in February. Was meant to start on March 18 at Rosehill but was scratched, so comes into this off a light prep, whereas several rivals here are at the end of theirs. He also has good form second-up and on soft and heavy.

Forbidden Love ($4.80), a four-year-old mare trained by the canny Michael Freedman, has been one of the stars of the autumn, winning three in a row including her second and third G1s before a dogged fourth in the 1600m Doncaster. She was up front and held on admirably that day, so dropping back to the 1400m here should suit. Hugh Bowman, who was aboard for that hat-trick, returns after preferring another horse (I’m Thunderstruck) in the Doncaster. Trouble is she’s drawn barrier 16 and will have to get across to take up her usual up-front role, burning some early petrol. Does handle all conditions, however, and mares in form are rolled gold.

In The Congo ($4.80) has a fairly light 56.5kg as a 3YO, has won in all going, comes from the powerful Waterhouse-Bott team, and is a very promising colt who’s been unplaced only once from nine starts. Does have gate 10 though and will likely be sent to the front and try to hold off his older, more seasoned rivals.

Ellsberg ($12) is a well-performed 4YO stallion from the Ryan-Alexiou yard who led the Doncaster field bravely and finished seventh, not too far behind. Again the 1400m should suit better here, but there’s likely to be strong pressure up front with Forbidden Love and In The Congo also thereabouts, possibly setting it up nicely for Mo’unga to swoop from behind them.

Tofane ($8.50) is the gun Melbourne mare who’s won four G1s – all over 1400m, including this race last year. Just loves the trip, found the 1600m too long last start when eighth in the All Star Mile, does have a slightly tricky gate in 12 but has the very capable Mark Zahra in the saddle. This is also likely to be her swansong before retirement, if you believe in fairytales.

Also each-way chances to Cascadian ($12), last Saturday’s G1 1600m winner Nimalee ($13), Sierra Sue ($16) and of course the people’s hero of the autumn, Shelby Sixtysix ($15), although the bush pin-up is second emergency and needs two scratchings to gain a start.

TIPS: 1. Mo’Unga; 2. Tofane; 3. Forbidden Love; 4. Ellsberg.