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Inclement weather rolled into the Ridegland, South Carolina area as players were finishing their third round. There were a number of players to make runs, but by day’s end the man who began the day atop the leaderboard ended the day in the same position. Sitting in the 18th fairway, Chesson Hadley will all but likely head into the final round of the Palmetto Championship at 14-under and four-strokes clear of the nearest pursuer.
Hadley had a rather boring moving day, and I’m sure he wouldn’t have had it any other way. After opening with a bogey, many assumed it was the beginning of the end for the 2014 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. But Hadley steadied the ship, making 10 consecutive pars before catching fire in the middle part of his back-nine. From holes 12 through 16, Hadley made four birdies to stretch out his lead and is 3-under for his round with just half a hole to play.
Paired with Hadley was world No. 1 Dustin Johnson. Arguably the most surprising round of the day came from the 2020 Masters champion. After tying Hadley at 10-under with a birdie on the par-5 2nd, Johnson looked primed to run away from his playing competitor. But bogeys on the par-3 5th and par-4 8th, led to a 1-over 36 on the front-nine.
It appeared as if Johnson would make a late push, with birdies on holes 15 and 16, but a sloppy bogey on the 17th halted any momentum he may have generated. Johnson still needs to play the final hole of his third-round, but he’ll likely start Sunday at 8-under and six-strokes behind Hadley. Even if he doesn’t win, Johnson will still have a great chance to record a top-10 finish, which would be his first since the Genesis Invitational.
With Round 3 not yet in the books, the oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have Hadley listed at the favorite at –125. That will likely change depending on the outcome of English’s birdie putt and Hadley and Johnson’s finishing hole.
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Updated Odds to Win (via PointsBet):
-125: Chesson Hadley
+325: Harris English
+650: Dustin Johnson
+1800: Garrick Higgo
+2200: Tyrrell Hatton
+8000: Jhonattan Vegas
Round 4 Plays (Odds via PointsBet):
Dustin Johnson (+650 to win):
With Higgo in the back pocket from our Round 2 article, I am seriously kicking myself for not grabbing Hatton as well. However, with such an unproven leader at the top, I’ll be adding another solider to the battle front. For a second, let’s just say the moment is too big for Hadley. He hasn’t been in contention much over the last few years and with players like English and Johnson at your heels, there is a chance that nightmare becomes a reality.
I understand Hadley held more than his own on Saturday playing alongside the world No. 1, but Sunday is a different animal. Especially considering just how poor Hadley was tee-to-green. He ranked outside the top-40 in all three tee-to-green metrics and if not for a hot putter, he could have easily backed up to the field.
Hadley will likely continue to ride said hot putter to his second PGA Tour victory, but if he is unable to, I want to have Johnson in my arsenal. These odds aren’t all too different from his pre-tournament odds, which were +800, and now he only has two players between him and the Palmetto Championship trophy. It will be a steep mountain to climb for someone to overtake Hadley tomorrow, but if there is a player who can do it, it’s Johnson.
As a side note, I will be monitoring the resumption of Round 3 like a hawk. If Hadley is wayward with his second shot on 18 or Johnson has a kick-in birdie, lines will likely shift one way or another. It’s likely both players will simply make par on their final hole, but if not, this line on Johnson could shorten or elongate. Players are set to resume play tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. EST.
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