There was one point in the early afternoon where this PGA Championship appeared to be wide open. Phil Mickelson led the morning pace, coming home in 5-under 31 on the front-nine (his back-nine) to take the clubhouse lead at 5-under. Beside him were the likes of Kevin Streelman and Ian Poulter before he faltered late. It seemed as if Mickelson would be the main story heading into Round 3, but then the afternoon wave came rolling through.
If you were to ask me to pick either these four players or the field, I’d simply pick these four. Luckily, if you listened to Monday’s Bet the Edge episode you may have been keen on Koepka at +5000 pre-tournament. If not, we will try to make up for it with a couple head-to-head matchup selections.
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Round 3 Plays (Odds via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Collin Morikawa (-104) over Abraham Ancer:
Morikawa and Ancer appeared to deploy the same game plan this week, which was hit the ball very well and forget how to chip and putt. That’s been the story of both of their young careers and in a single round matchup, I feel more comfortable with the man who is defending this very championship.
Through the first two rounds, Morikawa ranks inside the top-5 in the field in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach. This isn’t all that surprising as Morikawa is known as one of the straighter drivers of the golf ball and is arguably the best iron-player in the world. I’m hoping the 2020 PGA champ will be able to figure out the rest of his game as the slight favorite in this head-to-head.
Padraig Harrington (+214) over Matthew Fitzpatrick:
This should be a friendly pairing as Captain Harrington will be leading the European Team into this year’s Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits. Fitzpatrick will surely be on that team and the two may or may not have a few discussions about the matter during their Saturday stroll. And while Fitzpatrick may want to impress Harrington, I’m of the belief that Harrington will get the better of the Englishman.
Harrington currently ranks 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green through the first couple of rounds. He sits at even-par for the tournament, just like Fitzpatrick, but Harrington’s putter has held him back. Yes, I know Fitzpatrick can scramble and putt his way to a solid round, but I like Harrington’s steadier play to reign supreme on Saturday.
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