The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
The PGA Tour heads to Owings Mills, Maryland for the second postseason event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. With a rotating course schedule, we have no history at Caves Valley as this will be the first time the Tom Fazio design welcomes PGA Tour players.
Yet, when walking on the site, you can’t help but be in awe of the sheer mass of the property. Taking the shuttle over, I struck up a conversation with one of the golf professionals at Caves Valley. Present for two straight summers and previously at Congressional Country Club, he mentioned the property encompasses 900 acres.
With the driving range facing a significant drop-off, the varying elevation levels are hard to ignore. In what was described as a “difficult walk” by many players, those who are the freshest may in fact thrive Thursday morning.
Fresh or not, our first-round leader selections will need to hone in the big stick. Something I am less than inclined to do, those players who are strong off-the-tee make their way to the top of my list. A soft golf course, at least on Tuesday, birdies should come early and often on Thursday.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of Thursday’s BMW Championship. The world No. 1 and co first-round leader from last week, Jon Rahm, sits atop the odds board at +1500.
Odds to Lead After the First-Rounds (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1500: Jon Rahm
+2200: Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson
+2500: Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele
+2800: Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau
+3000: Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler
+3300: Abraham Ancer, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Webb Simpson
+4000: Corey Conners, Harris English, Joaquin Niemann, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im
+5000: Alex Noren, Charley Hoffman, Erik van Rooyen, Jason Kokrak, Sam Burns
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Phil Mickelson +6000:
Arriving to the property earlier than most, the PGA champion has had ample time to become well versed in everything Caves Valley. With a couple rounds on the Tom Fazio design under his belt, Mickelson is in need of a big week for a number of reasons. Sitting 70th in the FedEx Cup standings and on the presumed outs for Team USA, Mickelson will need a lot to fall his way in Baltimore.
Coming off a missed cut at The Northern Trust, there isn’t too much to suggest that’ll be the case. Yet, a top-20 finish at TPC Southwind and his recent off-the-tee play is enough for a first-round leader play. As it was at the Wells Fargo in early May that Mickelson led the strong field after completion of play on Thursday.
In what would later be the catalyst for his sixth major title at Kiawah Island, his iron display in that first-round at Quail Hollow was reminiscent of peak Mickelson. With single round performances of +1.9, +1.8, +3.0, and +2.1 Strokes Gained: Approach this summer on various golf courses, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that something similar could transpire this week.
Jhonattan Vegas +6600:
I just can’t get enough of Vegas who, despite burning us last week at Liberty National, makes his way into this article once again. The co 18-hole leader at the 3M Open was the model of consistency this summer before a poor couple of rounds at The Northern Trust, missing his first cut since the Valero Texas Open in April.
Yet maybe the missed cut can be turned into a positive as we are getting a strong number on a strong first-round leader selection in a limited field of 69 participants. Not only that, but Vegas’s clear strength is off-the-tee, an area of the bag where I believe players will be able to separate themselves at Caves Valley.
I’ve discussed Vegas from a first-round point of view more times than not over the last couple of months. Hoping last week was just a speed bump on the road to success, I feel confident going back to the Venezuelan this Thursday.
Aaron Wise +7500:
You never wager on a player who uses the broom stick with a ton of confidence. Adam Scott in the Wyndham Championship playoff is evident enough that particular club’s sole purpose is to break hearts. However, given its relatively new spot in Wise’s bag, I believe there is good still left in it.
Boasting eight consecutive made cuts, the former NCAA Champion has been a tee-to-green savant this summer. Posting performances of +9.3, +4.5, + 6.6, +4.0, and most recently +6.5 SG: Tee-to-Green at Liberty National, the putter typically tells the tale of Wise’s week.
After putting the broom stick in the back in Greensboro, Wise gained nearly three-strokes on the greens. While it appeared to regress in Jersey City, it was just one poor round, making him net positive having gained in five of eight rounds with the club. That’s good enough for me given the consistency in the other areas of his bag and his past success at Quail Hollow.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium DFS and Betting Golf Tools that are packed with a DFS Optimizer, DFS Projections, Salary Tracker, Edge Driver, Prop Projections, Futures and much more. Gain access to both tools in our EDGE+Max tier and don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Keith Mitchell +8500:
You have to ride the hot hand and the narrative and there aren’t any better than Mitchell when it comes to those two categories. Making birdie on his final three holes at The Northern Trust, the former Georgia Bulldog played his way into the BMW Championship as Pat Perez cheered him on. 63rd in the current standings, Mitchell has to feel as if he is playing with house money as a trip to Atlanta would be an added bonus given his season.
Before his recent resurgence, Mitchell had only one top-10 finish to his name in this 2020-2021 super season. Where you might ask? Well, I am glad you asked as Mitchell came in a tie for third at the Wells Fargo Championship, having played alongside Rory McIlroy in the final pairing on Sunday. Another Tom Fazio design, Mitchell has posted three quality outings in Charlotte in his career which could translate to success in Baltimore.
Even more so considering the form he arrives to Caves Valley with, having finished inside the top-10 in two of his last three starts. Known for his off-the-tee prowess, which he will surely put to good use, the putter has made strides in recent weeks. If that club holds steady, it’s just a matter of getting the irons going, which at +10000 in a 69-man field is worth a stab.
Hudson Swafford +10000:
There has been plenty of Georgia Bulldog discussion dominating my page as of late. Between English, Russell Henley, and yes, Kevin Kisner, the SEC powerhouse has built a strong crop of PGA Tour professionals. Possibly trying to make amends for my hilarious tweet that was not well received in Athens, Georgia, another Bulldog makes his way into the first-round leader article in Swafford.
He has a cool confidence about himself this week, watching him saunter around Caves Valley as if he knows something special is on the horizon. And all signs point to that being the case. Gaining strokes off-the-tee in six consecutive starts, the irons have started to come around for the two-time PGA Tour winner.
With performances of +6.1 and +5.4 SG: Approach in his last two outings, a strong day on and around-the-greens will be needed. While he has struggled around-the-greens, he isn’t completely lost from the sand. With deep bunkering outlining the majority of the greens at Caves Valley, that could be a blessing in disguise for Swafford who checks in with the longest first-round leader odds in the field.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.