Before Wales even left UK shores bound for Baku, no one would really dare whisper too much about their final Group A match against Italy in Rome. Italy, giants of world football. In Rome, their backyard. Not a chance.
How things evolve in football and how they evolve with Wales.
While Italy have done what was expected with two wins from two, Wales find themselves in a fabulous position with a draw and win, four points in the bag after two games. While not 100 per cent certain of qualifying and progressing to the last 16, surely only a freak set of results could prevent them at worst going through as one of the best four third-placed teams at Euro 2020.
That is with a game still to go – that game being Italy. A game that perhaps now does not daunt as much as perhaps did Wales or the Red Wall whether they make it to Rome or are watching in Rhiwbina or Rhyl.
So with Wales able to face Italy without the pressure of having to get a result, will a freedom of expression by the team continue to come to the fore? It did on Wednesday against Turkey as Wales produced chance after chance. That result and performance will bring momentum, confidence and belief to Wales. Echoes of Euro 2016. How will manager Rob Page view it all? Probably with a cool head, probably with a reality check, but also will he think what if? What if Wales could nick a draw, even dare I whisper it… nick a win.
Connor Roberts, Wales’ second goal-scorer said so much. What if?
I would not expect wholesale changes from Page, the players have earned the right to keep playing so there’s a good chance he will pick an unchanged XI for the third game running. Let’s not forget a number of players were a little short of match fitness so the legs of some are not overloaded, Page also does have the option of five substitutes. He’s proved skilled at changing Wales formation over the past seven months when required, he did it against Turkey during the second half, so changing things up or resting players during a game is not a problem.
Let’s not get carried away, Italy are an excellent team and are the clear favourites. I could pretty much guarantee every Wales player in the squad and the coaching staff will agree with that, but that is also forming part of their strategy here at Euro 2020. The underdog. Switzerland and Turkey were both given the favourites tag against Wales, so will Italy and Wales enjoy it.
It’s not just a phrase or a talking point, it’s a state of mind that works with Wales’ mental approach to the tournament. They prefer not to be burdened by expectation, they like to raise their collective game, they know at times it will be ‘backs to the wall’ defending and having an underdog tag helps with the mental preparation to matches at a major tournament. How much of football, how much of professional sport is psychological?
What has struck me though over the last week is how many times the defence has been praised. Gareth Bale made a point of it, not just the back four, but the defending of the whole team while Joe Rodon continues to impress. Young he may be, but he’s the dominant central defender and is bringing the best out of Chris Mepham who by his own admission has said he’s not had a great domestic season, but is feeling his form and game growing with Wales. So much focus is always going to be on Bale and Aaron Ramsey, but the performances of Wales back four si far has been not bad at all.
Good fortune is also another attribute that’s pretty handy. All 26 players remain fit and healthy, yes some are probably a touch fatigued, but this is their job and fatigue comes with the territory, any side that tends to go deep into a tournament rarely suffers too many serious injuries.
Italy await next, we wait to see whether fortune favours the brave.
The state of play in Group A
Sunday June 20 – Italy vs Wales; kick-off 5pm (Rome), Switzerland vs Turkey; kick-off 5pm (Baku)
After two wins from their opening two games against Turkey and Switzerland, Italy are through and will finish top of the group if they avoid defeat against Wales on Sunday.
Wales, who can still top the group with a win over Italy, will be confirmed in the top two with a draw or if Switzerland fail to beat Turkey.
Switzerland, who will be eliminated from the tournament if they lose to Turkey, can also finish in the top two if they win and Wales lose. The two teams would be level on points and will then be separated on goal difference.
Finally, Turkey have no chance of finishing in the top two, but they must beat Switzerland to finish third in the group.
Wales Euro fixtures and route
Last 16 knockout stage
If Wales win Group A…
Saturday June 26 – Group A winners vs Group C runners-up; kck-off 8pm (London)
If Wales finish second in Group A…
Saturday June 26 – Group A runners-up vs Group B runners-up; kick-off 5pm (Amsterdam)
If Wales finish as one of four best third-place teams…
One of:
Sunday June 27 – Group B winners vs third-placed side from Group A/D/E/F; kick-off 8pm (Seville)
Monday June 28 – Group F winners vs third-placed side from Group A/B/C; kick-off 8pm (Bucharest)
Tuesday June 29 – Group E winners vs third-placed side Group A/B/C/D; kick-off 8pm (Glasgow)