Blair Andrews looks forward to Jonathan Taylor’s bounceback game, wonders whether Damien Harris actually needs any targets, and finds the silver lining in the Denver Broncos’ backfield split.
Our goal with the Zero RB Watch List is to help you locate RB breakouts and waiver adds before they happen, but this column isn’t just for Zero RB owners. We’re just as focused on the high-profile backs. Understanding workloads is key to making tough redraft and dynasty trades.
The RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer provide a smorgasbord of data as we dive into the advanced stats for every team. Much of the focus is on how RBs score their points. We emphasize expected points (EP) and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) to better understand each player’s fantasy volume. Being able to conceptualize the relationship between touches and fantasy points is the most important element of making good RB decisions, whether that’s start/sit or waiver pickups.
This year we’ll also be featuring metrics from the Advanced Stats Explorer, including elements like broken tackles, yards after contact, evasion percentage, stuff rate, and more. We’ll also look at the new Stealing Signals tool for metrics such as high-value touches and green-zone carries, stats that translate directly into high expected point totals and big fantasy days.
Check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on the NFC.
AFC Week 16 – RB Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | ruEP | ruFPOE | reEP | reFPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | BAL | 6.8 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.6 | -0.3 |
| Latavius Murray | BAL | 4.6 | -1.2 | 3.4 | -2.2 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | BUF | 17.9 | 0.9 | 9.6 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 0.6 |
| Zack Moss | BUF | 4 | -0.5 | 2.5 | -1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 26.7 | 4.8 | 14.8 | -2.3 | 11.8 | 7.2 |
| Chris Evans | CIN | 3.9 | -3.8 | 2.1 | -2 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | 2.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | 18.8 | 8.6 | 11 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 1 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | CLE | 5.1 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | -1.1 |
| Demetric Felton | CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 10.6 | -0.6 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 4.2 | -1.4 |
| Melvin Gordon | DEN | 4.7 | -3.7 | 3.3 | -3.7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | HOU | 20.7 | 8.2 | 17.1 | 9.8 | 3.6 | -1.6 |
| Royce Freeman | HOU | 6.8 | -3.4 | 6.8 | -3.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 19.2 | -8.4 | 16.3 | -5.5 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| Nyheim Hines | IND | 3 | -0.2 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | JAC | 17.3 | -2.1 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 6.8 | -3.3 |
| James Robinson | JAC | 3.6 | -2.6 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Cottrell | JAC | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | KC | 14.9 | -3.4 | 8.5 | -3 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| Derrick Gore | KC | 11.2 | 2.2 | 6.7 | -2.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 9.1 | 1 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | -0.3 |
| Justin Jackson | LAC | 19.2 | 17 | 5.5 | 12.9 | 13.8 | 4 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | 3.6 | -0.5 | 2.1 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | 17 | -3.6 | 13 | -0.1 | 4 | -3.5 |
| Peyton Barber | LV | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| Jalen Richard | LV | 2.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 1.6 | -0.1 |
| Duke Johnson | MIA | 10.8 | -6.9 | 10.8 | -6.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | MIA | 6.8 | -3.2 | 6.8 | -3.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | MIA | 5.2 | -2.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 3.5 | -1.9 |
| Damien Harris | NE | 13.3 | 15 | 13.3 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | NE | 10.9 | -6.5 | 1 | -0.6 | 9.9 | -5.9 |
| Michael Carter | NYJ | 15.2 | -0.8 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 5.7 | -3.1 |
| Tevin Coleman | NYJ | 14 | -6.9 | 11.7 | -6 | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| Ty Johnson | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D’Onta Foreman | TEN | 6.8 | 0.9 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | TEN | 4.9 | -1.5 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 2.7 | -1.3 |
| Jeremy McNichols | TEN | 3.9 | -0.8 | 3.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
Cincinnati Bengals
In a game in which Joe Burrow passed for 525 yards, Joe Mixon was still able to maintain a large role. He led all AFC RBs in total EP, and even outperformed his opportunity slightly. He was the only AFC back to get double-digit EP in both phases. It wasn’t only that Cincinnati was scoring at will — Mixon played his highest snap share since Week 2.
Samaje Perine and Chris Evans both saw the field. Perine corralled two targets for only six yards. Evans carried once for one yard, and failed to catch his only target. Neither is likely to have much of a role against Kansas City, but Mixon could be in for another big game. No team has allowed more receiving yards to running backs over their last five games.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor ranked third among AFC backs in total EP, but last in FPOE. This ends a four-game streak with positive FPOE.
This coincides with his third straight game with less than three targets.
Week 17 presents a good opportunity for Taylor to bounce back. Las Vegas has been among the softest RB matchups over their previous five games.
If Carson Wentz is not activated in time for this game, expect the Colts to lean even more on their star RB. He accounted for 48% of the team opportunities in Week 16, and we could see another similar workload in Week 17.