The fourth and fifth rounds of fantasy football drafts are the worst places to take a running back. You’ve missed on the top-tier backs, the wide receiver options are great, and running back hit rates stay relatively steady for the next few rounds. While experienced fantasy managers know to avoid the unenviable position of needing a RB in Rounds 4 or 5, there are time when draft conditions necessitate it. Thus, good fantasy managers have a strategy for approaching this risky area of the draft.
This year, my approach will be to buy Josh Jacobs.
In 2020, Jacobs logged 273 (No. 3 among qualified running backs) carries for 1,065 (No. 8) rushing yards and 12 (No. 4) total touchdowns en route to a 15.4 (No. 12) Fantasy Points Per Game average and an RB1 finish. But, his measly 3.9 (No. 56) yards per carry, alongside Kenyan Drake’s addition, and the departure of three starting offensive linemen has managers concerned about his outlook in 2021. Because of these concerns, Jacobs’ ADP may drop even more, making him an even better target should you find yourself needing a mid-round RB2. Nobody is excited to take him, but in these mid-rounds, you often must take what you can get.
As far as fourth round running backs, it can be argued that Jacobs, who often falls into the fifth round, provides the best value compared to similarly drafted players in Mike Davis, Travis Etienne, and Myles Gaskin. His locked-in goal line usage can lead to explosive, week-winning games. And his guaranteed 13-17 carries per game will buoy his floor, meaning he is a safe RB2 with top-15 upside.
Most Carries inside the 5 since the start of 2019
🟣 Dalvin Cooks: 47
⚪ Ezekiel Elliott: 44
⚫ Josh Jacobs: 33 pic.twitter.com/e6ooBdZLL7— RotoUnderworld (@rotounderworld) February 16, 2021
The $11 Million Man
When the Raiders’ announced they were signing Kenyan Drake to a two-year, $11 million deal, Josh Jacobs understandably fell down draft boards. After all, Drake is more versatile, has a better profile, and had a starting role in Arizona last year. But is it that surprising that a Gruden-led Raiders team went out to get another player for their running back room? Last year they drafted Lynn Bowden, an athletic, hybrid RB/WR/QB, to a backfield already shared by Jacobs, Devontae Booker, and Jalen Richard. In 2019, Jacobs shared a backfield with Richard and DeAndre Washington (who both had large roles). And in 2018, Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch shared the backfield. Put simply, Gruden likes having multiple backs. It’s why Jacobs only managed a 62.9-percent (No. 14) Snap Share last season, and a 54.8-percent (No. 23) Snap Share in 2019.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn7Lh_7XMuE?feature=oembed
Jacobs has never been a Christian McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook-level workhorse. While he gets the most snaps on his teams, his teammates get opportunities to let their unique receiving skill sets shine. But, this is not limited to Gruden-led teams, look at backfields around the league. Most of the RBs we’re picking as the RB1s and RB2s for our fantasy teams have a serviceable backup and/or running mate; even McCaffrey with Carolina drafting Chuba Hubbard. This is the world we live in now. It’s time to stop being concerned when good running backs back up a clear lead back and accept this as the new normal.
Having said this, Jacobs was elite in terms of opportunity last year.
Josh Jacobs 2020 Opportunity Metrics
With how often Jacobs is used, Drake projects to step into a role which combines most of Richard and Booker’s 2020 production, making him a change-of-pace back with upside. Thus Jacobs’ usage will be similar to 2020 with a few less carries per game, which drops him slightly, but not too far. However, I firmly believe that his usage last year doesn’t reflect the true volume and quality of touches that should have been expected.
The Offensive Line’s Fall From Grace
The Raiders went into 2020 with the best offensive line as rated by Pro Football Focus. By the end of the year, they finished as the No. 24-ranked unit. So, what happened? For one, Richie Incognito (81.4 PFF grade) got injured in Week 3 and missed the rest of the season. In response, the Raiders played Denzelle Good (56.7) and John Simpson (45.8). Then Trent Brown (68.9), whom the Raiders gave the third biggest offensive line contract to, went down on the third snap of their first game, got COVID twice, and ended up only playing four games. To fill in, the Raiders played Brandon Parker (48.9), Sam Young (59.0), and Denzelle Good.
As a result, Josh Jacobs had some head-scratching metrics. For example, what explains him having nine (No. 7) Breakaway Runs but a 3.3-percent (No. 43) Breakaway Run Rate? Or finishing near the top of the league in a number of efficiency metrics while finishing near league-bottom in others?
Josh Jacobs 2020 Efficiency Metrics
These stats suggest that Jacobs is a talented runner with strong volume who was let down by external factors. This is all but cemented by his ninth-worst 1.9 yards before contact per attempt for RBs with more than 150 carries (for context, the league average is 2.35 YBC/ATT).
So the Raiders had a horrible offensive line. But didn’t they trade away a bunch of linemen this offseason?
Raiders Players Added & Lost
In a span of two days, the Raiders traded away a top center in Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, and their $66 million man Trent Brown for four mediocre draft picks. Because of these transactions, the narrative around the offensive line is that they are even weaker than last year, and that Jacobs’ 3.9 YPC will only be worse because of it. But remember, Brown missed virtually the whole season and was recovering from COVID in the games he did play. Sure, losing Hudson and Jackson hurt, but look at the projected starting line for this season.
Raiders 2020 Projected Starting Lineup
The Raiders get Incognito back, continue to let Good start, and they thankfully no longer need to start Parker and Young because they took Alex Leatherwood with the 17th pick in the NFL Draft. Leatherwood was a top lineman at Alabama where he won the Jacobs Blocking Trophy (SEC’s top offensive lineman), the Outland Trophy (nation’s top interior lineman), and first-team Associated Press All-American honors.
Conclusion
All in all, Josh Jacobs is a strong RB2 who has historically thrived despite a crowded backfield and a weak line because of the insane number of opportunities he receives. While Kenyan Drake’s addition will likely take some touches away, in a 17-game schedule and with the league increasingly adopting a committee approach, this dampening effect will be minimal. Jacobs will continue to be a talented, volume-driven runner behind a line which is sneakily better than the unit rolled onto the field last year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7nQnFbGNbk?feature=oembed
You can’t always trust fourth or fifth round running backs, but if you’re going to trust anyone, trust Josh Jacobs.