Week 1 saw some very impressive performances and a few whiffs. As I did last year, I won’t include players in the Hits/Misses portion of this column if an injury prevented them from playing or if they were inactive. In short, I won’t take credit for a “sit” if your player was inactive, nor will I take the hit if I recommended a “start” and they were injured or didn’t play. Let’s start week 2 with a look at the Week 1 Sit/Start hits and misses.
WEEK 1 HITS
Jalen Hurts: 264 passing yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT, 15 rushing yards, 2 pt conversion
Justin Herbert: 337 passing yards, TD, INT
Devin Singletary/Zack Moss: 72 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 8 receiving yards
Robby Anderson: 1 reception, 57 yards, TD
Devonta Smith: 6 receptions, 71 yards, TD
Allen Robinson: 6 receptions, 35 yards
Tyler Higbee: 5 receptions, 68 yards
Mike Gesicki: 0 points
WEEK 1 WHIFFS
Trevor Lawrence: 332 passing yards, 3 TD, 3 INT
Daniel Jones: (QB12) 267 passing yards, TD, 27 rushing yards, TD, 1 fumble
D’Andre Swift: (RB4) 39 rushing yards, 8 receptions, 65 receiving yards, 1 TD
Kyle Pitts: 4 receptions, 31 yards
Any Bucs TE: Gronk (the TE1?) with 8 receptions, 90 receiving yards, 2TD
NOTE: Raheem Mostert (recommended start) was injured after 2 snaps, OBJ (recommended sit) was ruled out prior to game time; Gus Edwards (recommended start) was injured and removed from the article prior to publication.
Week 1: 8/13 – 61.5% hit rate. As a side note, “hitting” on 60% of player recommendations when avoiding the top 50 players is generally accepted in the industry as a very impressive rate of success. Stick with the Fantasy Champions throughout your fantasy season!!
As a reminder, for the purpose of my sit/start advice, players that do not warrant ANY start advice throughout the year will essentially include any players selected in the first 4 rounds of most drafts. I will, however, look to provide good statistical reasoning for sitting star players on any given week. While I believe that it should be an easy call to start a top 20 WR and RB, a top 10 QB, and a top 5 TE, I will look to give sound reasoning to sit any of these players. I will also look at mid to lower-tier players that have the opportunity to shine on any given week.
QB STARTS
AARON RODGERS v DETROIT: Angry Aaron Rodgers is a fun, Aaron Rodgers – considering Matt LaFleur decided to use the word “embarrassing” to describe GB’s performance last week (and Rodgers didn’t like that term), I think this is a good spot for him to explode on a terrible defense. Detroit coughed up over 40 points to the 49ers with a monster game by Deebo Samuel. Look for Rodgers and Davante Adams to absolutely erase all doubt that they are the premier QB/WR duo in the NFL this Sunday. Look for a high-end QB1 finish from the man with the man-bun.
RUSSELL WILSON v TENNESSEE: If one thing hasn’t changed from 2020 to 20201…it’s that the Titans’ DST still isn’t very good. They were absolutely lit up by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals last week. Considering Wilson and his hyper-efficient passing game is coming to town, we should look for yet another top-half QB1 performance from Wilson, especially since his connection with Tyler Lockett appears to be well in order. Light up Wilson with high confidence.
QB SITS
BAKER MAYFIELD v HOUSTON: If you saw the fact that the Browns scored 29 points against the KC Chiefs, you would have figured that Baker would have produced some respectable fantasy numbers in week 1…but you would be wrong. Baker and the run-first Browns only produced 12 fantasy points from the QB position, and that trend shouldn’t change in week 2 when they face the Houston Texans. The game plan will be a hefty dose of Nick Chubb running the ball followed by Kareem Hunt…running the ball…and maybe a few passes sprinkled in. Mayfield may throw 1 or 2 TD’s but you can’t count on him for QB1 numbers this week.
JOE BURROW v CHICAGO: Burrow looked decent in week 1, tossing for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, he is still clearly favoring his knee and now has to face a staunch pass rush in the Chicago Bears. The Bears struggled to hit Matt Stafford last week, but that was primarily due to incredible O-line work by the Rams. Don’t’ count on similar success from the Bengals front 5 in week 2 – Joe could be hobbling around for his life running from Khalil Mack and company. I would leave him on your bench for 1-3 more weeks until Burrow settles in and the matchups get a little easier.
RB STARTS
TY’SON WILLIAMS v CHIEFS: Prior to last week’s article publication, I had the Gus-Bus in the “start” portion of the list. Quite a bit has happened since then, but the one thing that stays the same with the Ravens? They’ve got a great run-game! Williams jumped into a time-share role with Latavius Murray and looked every bit the part we had hoped from JK Dobbins – pass-catching, run after the catch, and a TD to boot. If you’re tight on RB help and managed to grab Williams, light him up against the Chiefs – we all saw what Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt did to them last week.
DAMIEN HARRIS V JETS: Damien Harris proved to be the #1 RB in NE in week 1 – had carried the ball 23 times for 100 yards and caught 17 more yards. Despite the fumble (because Rhamondre did the same thing on his first carry), Harris has the backfield and the goal line touches sealed up for now in NE. Although the Jets have made some improvements to their DST, the Patriots should comfortably move the ball downfield and give Harris plenty of goal-line work in week 2. Start him up expecting higher-end RB2 numbers this week.
RB SITS
MIKE DAVIS v TAMPA BAY: Well the Bucs certainly looked every bit the excellent run-stuffing DST we thought they would be. Zeke was rendered fairly useless while Tony Pollard racked up a few receptions. With how poorly the Atlanta O-line played in week 1 vs the Eagles, and how fierce the pass-rush is with Tampa’s D-line, I can’t imagine Davis is a safe bet in week 2. Although he is capable of busting off a big run, you can’t take a chance on it this early in the season. Wait for Atlanta’s scheduled to open up before setting Davis in your lineup (and if you don’t have him, start making trade offers FOR him after week 2).
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE v BALTIMORE: What stinks about this is the fact that you drafted CEH in the 3rd round hoping that he could reach RB1 levels in this wicked offense. However, in my opinion, CEH is going to perform almost exactly as he did last year – as the 3rd option behind Kelce and Hill. Considering the Chiefs don’t exactly focus on running the ball in the red zone, you have to hope that he racks up some receptions or busts off a long run against Baltimore’s stingy DST. Remember, Josh Jacobs didn’t rack up many yards at all last week BUT was able to punch it in twice because the Raiders like to run the ball in the red zone. Lower your expectations for CEH in week 2 against the Ravens.
WR STARTS
JARVIS LANDRY v HOUSTON: OBJ is out again in week 2 and, historically when that happens, Jarvis Landry receives a very generous target share (~26%). Even if Baker is a week 2 “sit”, Landry is a week 2 “must start” in my books. Houston isn’t a daunting DST vs WR and Baker has to throw to someone. Light up Jarvis Landry and expect a solid WR2 performance this week.
COOPER KUPP v COLTS: Cooper Kupp was clearly Matt Stafford’s favorite target in week 1 (10 targets, 7 receptions, 108 yards, TD). He almost had a 2nd TD in the Week 1 game but was tackled 1 yard short of the end zone. When playing the Colts, the Seahawks were able to hit their WR’s deep on numerous occasions. With Kupp’s ability to rack up yards-after-catch, you can set him in your week 2 lineup and expect he will easily outperform his ADP.
WR SITS
ROBBY ANDERSON v NEW ORLEANS: Despite my week 1 success in recommending you start Anderson, he only hammered the 1 catch for a long TD. With the return of CMC plus DJ Moore soaking up the targets, it appears, at least early in the season, that Anderson plays the role of a “deep threat” WR. He could pay off for you but, this early on in the FF season, I’m not sure you’re ready for boom/bust plays. I would hold off on Anderson in week 2 until we have more evidence that he will be utilized in a larger role.
MICHAEL PITTMAN v RAMS: Pittman only received 4 targets in week 1 vs the Seahawks. That’s not a ton of usage considering the Colts were playing from behind for a good portion of the game. Not only does Carson Wentz appear to enjoy dumping the ball to short-area targets like Taylor and Hines, but he also appears to be favoring Pascal in the red zone. When facing one of the toughest secondaries in the LA Rams, I can’t recommend playing Pittman in week 2. Stash him until Wentz figures this offense out.
TE STARTS
NOAH FANT v JAGUARS: Well, the Jags DST looks like a hot mess. Urban and the Jags coaching staff were lit up by Houston in week 1 and the prospects of Denver’s DST controlling the flow of the game is easy to see. With Teddy Bridgewater enjoying his short to mid-range targets, and with Jerry Jeudy out for half of the season, Noah Fant should see an increase in Denver’s target share. Fant did have 6 receptions for 2 yards in week 1 – look for similar (or better) numbers in week 2 with upside for a TD against the Jags’ terrible DST.
JARED COOK v COWBOYS: Old Man Cook had a decent week 1 against a stingy Washington DST racking up 5 receptions for 56 yards. In week 2, Cook gets to face off with one of the worst DST’s in the NFL when the Chargers face the Cowboys. Considering Cook’s late draft capital, there is every reason to predict that he will outplay his ADP and sneak into the TE1 range.
TE SITS
MIKE GESICKI v BUFFALO: Well, Gesicki racked up a whopping ZERO fantasy points in week 1 vs the Patriots…ZERO!!!! He was on the field for 21 snaps and was only targeted twice. With Buffalo’s revamped and improved DST, I can’t think of one good reason to fire up Gesicki in week 2, especially with the return of Will Fuller to Miami’s WR corps.
DALLAS GOEDERT v NINERS: Despite his 4 reception/42 yards + TD line in week 1, Goedert only had 5 targets in a blowout win over the Falcons. In week 2, the Eagles have to face the Niners and 2020’s most difficult matchup for TEs. With Devonta Smith and Jaelen Reagor hogging most of the targets, and with a tough DST matchup, I wouldn’t depend on Goedert for anything more than high-end TE2 numbers.
As always, good luck in your league!