Week 14: To Trade or Not to Trade? | by Matthew Suh | Jul, 2021

Trading is arguably the second most fun part about fantasy baseball (besides drafting) and one of the most important aspects as well. At times, trading can be difficult because you don’t know how a player will perform for the rest of the season. Because the art of fantasy trading is so complicated, I have compiled a list of one pitcher and two hitters to trade for and two pitchers and a hitter to try and trade away. Let’s take a deeper dive into my top targets to trade for this week and targets to consider dealing away.

NOTE:

  • All stats in this article are up to date as of Monday, Jul 5, 2021.
  • All player position eligibility come from Yahoo Fantasy
  • Average WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is around 1.27; anything LOWER is good anything HIGHER is not good
  • Average ERA (earned run average) is around 3.95; anything below is GREAT anything above is NOT great
  1. Aroldis Chapman — RP (New York Yankees)

The Cuban Missile aka Aroldis Chapman has NOT been a lights-out closer as of late. In his last 3 appearances, Chapman allowed 9 ER in only 1 ⅓ inning pitched, skyrocketing his season ERA to 4.71 on the season. Chapman’s numbers keep growing uglier and uglier as he now owns a 4.71 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, with 16 saves in 19 opportunities. His K rate is at 39.2% (9.7% down from last season) and his BB rate is at 16% (7.1% up from last season and bottom 3% in the league). To add on, Chapman’s hard-hit percentage rose 12.2 up to 40% on the season. While things aren’t looking good for Chapman as of late, fantasy managers should look to “buy low” on him after his past few disastrous performances. The Cuban Missile will still remain a hard-throwing, lights out, closer that will rack up strikeouts and saves.

2. Bryan Reynolds — OF (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Bryan Reynolds has bloomed into a star OF for the Pittsburgh Pirates slashing .306/.392/.533 with 15 HRs and 46 RBI’s on the season. However, in the past week, he’s slashing a mere .227/.292/.546 with 5 K’s and 2 BB’s. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be alarmed by this dismal week of stats as his K rate decreased from last season to 20.2% with an increased BB rate at 11.4%. Reynolds is a unique OF hitting towards the top of the Pirates lineup that can hit for power and average while also stealing bases occasionally. Try to acquire Bryan Reynolds at a “buy low” price before he starts playing like an all-star again.

3. Jesse Winker — OF (Cincinnati Reds)

Cincinnati Reds outfielder, Jesse Winker was named to his first all-star game earlier in the week however, in the past week, he has not been hitting like an all-star. In the last 7 days, Winker has slashed .154/.267/.308 with 6 K’s and 3 BB’s. However, on the season, Winker sports an elite .310/.389/.565 slash line with 19 HRs and 49 RBIs. Winker’s K rate decreased by 8.5 (from last season) lowering his K rate to 16.6%. Furthermore, Winker’s xBA at .304 suggests his struggles at the plate won’t continue for much longer. Not only does Winker hit for average but he also hits for power with a .565 slugging percentage. Fantasy managers should offer deals and try to trade for Jesse Winker as his struggles will only continue for a little longer.

  1. Alex Reyes — RP (St. Louis Cardinals)

Control has been the biggest issue for St. Louis Cardinals closer, Alex Reyes, this season. On the season, Reyes has 20 saves with a 1.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 31.2% K rate, and a league-worst 18.2% BB rate. On the surface, these numbers look great but the high BB rate and xERA of 3.20 should red flag Reyes as someone to trade away. This week, Reyes posted a 1.59 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, with 2 saves, 1 win, and 1 loss, in 4 game appearances. This season Reyes’ hard-hit percentage rose 6% and his first-pitch strike percentage is sitting at a mere 47.6%. Fantasy managers should look at Reyes’ strong week and look to “sell high” before his ERA rises and control issues become even more glaring.

2. Dominic Smith — 1B, OF (New York Mets)

Dom Smith was a fantasy player heavily talked about in the offseason yet he never quite lived up to his 2020 season potential. This past week, however, he slashed .417/.440/.875 with 3 HRs and 6 RBI’s. That’s a pretty good week if you ask me. On the season, Smith owns a slash line of .259/.325/.405 with 9 HR’s and 36 RBI’s. The main problem this year for Smith is that his power isn’t there. This past week alone accounted for ⅓ of his HR’s all season long. As the Mets grow healthier after the All-Star break, Smith’s opportunities at the plate will decrease if he doesn’t step up his numbers. Fantasy managers should look at this strong week at the plate from Dominic Smith as a chance to sell him and receive a player with a brighter ROS outlook.

3. German Marquez — SP (Colorado Rockies)

German Marquez has never been a heavily talked about star pitcher, however this season he has earned some attention after making it to his first career all-star game. This past week, Marquez posted 2 QS sporting an immaculate 1.20 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, with 16 K’s while allowing only 2 ER, 6 hits, and 2 BB’s at Coors Field. The numbers he posted this week are fantastic considering both starts happened at Coors Field, however, Marquez’s season numbers are not nearly as impressive. On the season, Marquez owns a 3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, with 7 wins and 6 losses. His fastball velocity dropped 0.8% from last season and his BB% rose by 2.2% from last season. Overall, the attention Marquez is receiving after his last two starts should allow fantasy owners to “sell high” on him.

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Matthew Suh is a beat writer and contributor for the Fantasy Life App blog. Matthew covers all fantasy sports including football, basketball, and baseball. Questions about Fantasy Baseball? Follow Matthew on Twitter @matthewsuh or on the Fantasy Life App @matthew_suh for advice!