Welcome back to UCL Fantasy MD7 Differentials blog everyone after what seems like an eternity since the last Champions League game was played back in December 2021.
Just to round up from a personal perspective, I had a very good MD6 where I ended up 2 shy of 100 points, Kylian Mbappe coming in clutch with 15 points whom I captained, Overall my current OR is the highest of my #UCLFantasy season so far: 1231th in the world.
As always, A big thank you to everyone who takes the time to read my Differential blog every MD, I am super grateful for the support, further if you like my content feel free to follow me on Twitter for more updates @FPLRossoneri.
Now, let’s get down to business and talk about what you guys are here for in the first place, UCL Fantasy MD7 Differentials going into the business end of the Champions League starting with the round of 16.
Looking at the R16 fixtures, we can already see some of the bigger teams having more favorable fixtures as compared to others, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Manchester City will be fancying their chances to get to the next round while PSG is up against Real Madrid & Liverpool play Inter, both seem like difficult to call at least on paper.
Along with this UCL Fantasy MD7 Differentials article, you can find the link to all our Champions League Fantasy blogs here. We have separate blogs for captaincy and players to pick do check it out on the link.
All data used in this article has been taken from FBREF
UCL Fantasy MD7 Differentials (<10% TSB)
DUSAN VLAHOVIC~JUVENTUS, 9.2M, TSB: 1%
As you may already know about me and my love for Italy and Serie A, in particular, the January transfer window did indeed get some eyes rolling especially when the news broke about Serie A’s most talked about striker-Dusan Vlahovic moving from Fiorentina to Juventus for a staggering fee of around 82 million euros.
Vlahovic has been one of the most talked-about players in Italy in the last couple of years, not just because of his goal-scoring skills but the reluctance in signing a contract with Fiorentina and eventually forcing his former club to finally sell him to rivals Juventus.
Now, let’s take a look at his numbers so far this season, Vlahovic has scored 18xG at an xG of 13.4 in just 22 matches this season, he also has 2xA to his name, per 90 his xG is 0.62 which is one of the best in the league, his overall xG+xA is around 0.71 per 90 mins which is again quite impressive.
Taking a look at his heat map from the current season so far, you can already make out that he’s an out & out striker who likes being inside the box more often than not, he has more of that poacher instinct with which he believes he only needs a single chance to score a goal.
At 190 cm he’s is tall enough to be considered an aerial threat and further given his physical strength he’s already developed his hold-up play and with his natural pace, he is also very good at counter-attacking football. Vlahovic is very smart in his positioning in order to find space and run in behind the defenders.
Juventus will definitely be looking to Vlahovic to help them in their R16 match vs Villarreal who are no mugs themselves but given the recent return to form of Dybala and strengthening of the midfield via the acquisition of Denis Zakaria, I feel Juventus will be disappointed if they don’t progress to the next round of UCL.
Dusan Vlahovic is only owned by 1% in the UCL Fantasy game and can be a great UCL Fantasy MD7 Differential in the R16 stages.
Further Read: UCL Fantasy Position Wise Top Picks for Round of 16 | UCL Knockouts
PHIL FODEN~MANCHESTER CITY, 8.2M, TSB: 6%
Foden has come into his own this year, Pep Guardiola has been very particular about the “Stockport Iniesta’s” minutes in the last few years saying he gradually wants Foden to get into thick of it, and this is evident this especially with Foden already playing 17 matches in the Premier League alone.
He is slowly becoming the potent creative force that we all thought he would become one day, and his numbers don’t disappoint either, Foden has had 9 goal contributions in 17 games at an xG+xA of 10.5, per 90 minutes he has a npxG+xA of 0.65 which shows how creative Foden can be from that left flank.
In the Champions League this season Foden has started 3 matches with a return of a goal and assist, his xG+xA increases to 0.94 per 90 minutes in the UCL, it maybe a smaller sample size but it shows whenever he starts he can easily get the returns.
The best part here is that we will get the Man City line-ups from the deadline and I highly recommend getting in Phil Foden if he starts, at 8.2 mil he can be a really good UCL Fantasy MD7 Differential.
Further Read:
THIAGO SILVA~CHELSEA, 5.6M, TSB: 5%
Silva will go down as one of the most shrewd and smart free transfers Chelsea have done ever when Silva moved from PSG last season, at 37 years of age he looks physcially great and is the perfect player to command the Chelsea backline.
He has been very resolute in defense for Chelsea, He has amassed a total of 107 blocks/interceptions/tackles in the 17 games he’s started in the Premier League, add to that 3 goals from open play and we can see a very good defender who can get you the odd goal as well.
In the UCL this season, Thiago Silva has 26 ball recoveries in the group stages giving him 7 extra points on top of clean sheets. In the 4 games he has started Chelsea have only conceded 1 goal and have kept 3 clean sheets.
Chelsea have a favourable tie vs Lille and I fully expect Thiago Silva and company to do well in both the games, he is still only 5% owned and you can’t go much wrong at 5.6 mil and thus be a great UCL Fantasy MD7 Differential.
Further Read: UCL Fantasy Position Wise Top Picks for Round of 16 | UCL Knockouts
SVEN ULREICH~BAYERN MUNICH, 4.5M, TSB: 0%
Ulreich will be deputizing in the goal for Bayern Munich for the next 4-6 weeks as Manuel Neuer recovers from his recent knee surgery. If you are looking for a cheap goalkeeper playing for a top side, Ulreich can be your man.
But do remember he will lose his place when Neuer is back fit, so consider him with a pinch of salt and hence he’s a good pick but only in the short term and should end up getting both the Salzburg games in the R16.
Bayern Munich have looked shaky in defense of late, they lost 2-4 to Bochum at the weekend in the Bundesliga but I expect them to turn things around soon and with Joshua Kimmich back and other players also coming back from injury, I expect them to come through the R16 stage without too many hiccups.
Further Read: UCL Fantasy Position Wise Top Picks for Round of 16 | UCL Knockouts
KAI HAVERTZ~CHELSEA, 9.2M, TSB: 2%
Kai Havertz is just fresh of scoring the winning penatly at the Club World Cup final vs Palmeiras and thus helping Chelsea lift their first Club World Cup trophy ever,If we look back to last year Havertz was again the go to man to score the winning goal in the UCL final vs Man City, he is the guy for the big occasions.
You could argue that he’s not in the best of form at the moment as he’s only scored 2xG & 1xA in 12 league starts for Chelsea.
But given the injury to Mason Mount during the latest game, I fully expect Kai Havertz to step up his game in Mount’s absence and carry the mantle of being the creative engine of the Chelsea team. I personally rate Havertz very highly cause it wasn’t so long ago that he was banging the goals in for Bayern Leverkusen.
As mentioned above, Chelsea are playing Lille in the R16 tie and I don’t see any shocks here and expect the likes of Havertz & Ziyach to do well in both the games.
Kai Havertz is currently owned by only 2% of UCL Fantasy managers so if you are in the market for a uber UCL Fantasy MD7 Differential that can help you gain rank, Havertz can very well be your guy.
Further Read: UCL Fantasy Position Wise Top Picks for Round of 16 | UCL Knockouts
AYMERIC LAPORTE~MANCHESTER CITY, 5.1M, TSB: 2%
He is finally showing why Pep Guardiola put so much faith and money in Laporte when he signed for Man City from spanish club Athletic Club Bilbao in 2017.
Laporte has been in very good form this season which has directly contributed to Manchester City keeping so many clean sheets, 15 in 25 Premier League games.
The City defender has started 20 of the 25 games which shows that he’s become the nailed on Man City centre-back, from a defensive standpoint Laporte has 51 blocks/interceptions/tackles and has a pass completion percentage of 95.2 which is great. He also boasts attacking threat from corners having already scored 3xG this season.
In UCL, Laporte has accumalted 20 ball recoveries in just the 2.5 games he’s played, In my opinion Laporte is definitely one of the nailed starting centre-backs in the R16 matches vs Sporting.
As mentioned earlier, we will get the Man City line-ups before the deadline on tuesday and you see Laporte starting, he is going to be a good differential at only 2% ownership at the moment.
Last but not the least, news has come up that Pedro Goncalves is injured for Sporting Lisbon which makes it even more appealing to get at least 2 Man City defenders.
Further Read: UCL Fantasy Position Wise Top Picks for Round of 16 | UCL Knockouts
That’s it folks for UCL Fantasy MD7 Differentials blog, thank you for returning to read my differential blog, as per usual I’ll be back with differential blogs for the next MD and beyond, till then good luck with your transfers and team. See you soon 🙂
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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of UCL Fantasy Matchday 7
UCL Fantasy Position Wise Top Picks for Round of 16 | UCL Knockouts
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