1.) Melvin Gordon (Den, RB)
Not sure what there is to like about the move to Denver for potential Melvin Gordon fantasy owners in 2020. Denver was a bottom five team in total offense in 2019, has an unproved second year QB in Drew Locke, and a crowded RB room with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. If Gordon is given the opportunity to be the bell cow, he’ll have a solid floor and should produce, but his upside will be significantly capped.
2.) Deandre Hopkins (Ari, WR)
Hopkins has been a first round fantasy WR each of the past three seasons. I do not think he repeats that for the third year in a row. I still love Hopkins as a talent (probably still the best WR in the league), and I still believe he will be a top 10 WR in fantasy, but anytime you see a player change uniforms, it has to give cause to pause. Long term, I think the move to Arizona has the possibility to be a net positive for Hopkins, but in year one, I’m slightly worried given what the expectations will be. He will have to learn a new offense, and develop chemistry with a new QB, which given how heavily targeted he has been in the past three seasons (top 5 each year), comes with a level of uncertainty. Kyler Murray might end up being a better NFL QB than Deshaun Watson, but at least for right now, it looks like Hopkins will be downgrading. Not only was Watson a more accurate passer in 2019, he also pushed the ball down the field much more often than Murray who ranked 31st in Average Intended Air Yards. Again, I still like Hopkins as a fantasy WR, but I don’t like him as a first rounder, at least not for 2020.
3.) Keenan Allen (LAC, WR)
Losing Phillip Rivers in free agency was a death blow to Allen’s fantasy prospects in 2020. The Chargers will likely start the season with Tyrod Taylor, draft a rookie QB, or sign one of the free agents QB’s that are left on the market. None of those options sound very appealing.
4.) Christian Kirk (Ari, WR)
2020 was shaping up to be a potential breakout season for Kirk, but with the addition of Deandre Hopkins, I think it is probably smart to temper those expectations. Kirk is a volume guy, and his fantasy value to dependent on him getting a ton of volume. In 2019 he had 107 targets in 13 games. That was a 131 target pace which would have placed him 15th in the NFL among WR’s. It is hard to imagine him getting that kind of volume with Hopkins serving as the new number one guy. So with the inevitable decrease in targets along with the lack of TD potential (only 6 total TD’s in his first two seasons), Kirk is positioned to be a great WR handcuff and borderline flex play on most weeks.
5.) Austin Hooper (Cle, TE)
On paper, the Browns signer Hooper looked amazing for both sides. Hooper is a 25 year old, stud TE, coming off a monster season and he joins a team with Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham and Nick Chubb. Hooper’s ADP will certainly get a bump from this with the inevitable hype that we saw from all the Cleveland players last season, and that is that problem. Although it is a sexier situation for Hooper, it probably won’t be a better one. Last year Atlanta was 5th in total offense and 3rd in passing yards. Hooper had 75/787/6 in 13 games. I’m not saying Hooper isn’t capable of duplicating that production or building on it in Cleveland, but I’m also not ready to pencil him in as a top three fantasy TE given the dysfunction we saw in Cleveland last year and the adjustment that will be required from switching offenses.