Science of Fantasy Football Episode 28. When you get two scientists together of course they are going to use the scientific method to dissect the statistics that are important to understanding for Fantasy Football success. Learn from Professor John Bush and Dennis Michelsen how to improve your game in all formats. This week our dynamic duo talks about how the latest NFL news might affect Fantasy teams but remind you not to overreact to every nugget of data. We also study QB data this week.
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https://embed.sounder.fm/play/282320 Link
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PROFESSOR’s TAKE.
This is one of the data figures we discuss in this episode concerning QBs Rushing Attempts vs. age of the QB over the years from 2012 to 2021.
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- KEY ASPECTS.
- Using the top QBs only. Top 25% at end of each year (END of Season)
- 75-100% represents the Average of Rushing Attempts by the top 25% QB at each year segment vs. their AGE.
- Age ranges from 21 to 44.
- Blue Circles are the combined and averaged Rushing Attempts from QBs over the years of 2019 to 2021
- Red Circles are the combined and averaged Rushing Attempts from QBs over the years of 2012 to 2018
- BLUE and RED lines are the Polynominal Trend Lines across the respective data points.
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Results/Discussion
Below I present the QB metrics of AGE on the X-axis vs Rushing Attempts on the Y-Axis. I have two yearly segments of QB Rushing Attempts (2012 to 2018 and 2019 to 2021). My analysis of the trendlines clearly suggests a drop in Rushing vs the QB age.
That conclusion may seem a kind of “Oh I knew that” but what I have seen is certain QBs go from young and rushing to older pocket passers. Thus, you should not expect a reverse pattern. For example, Russel Wilson will not go back to the free-wheeling rushing young QB he was. Yet I note some FF PUNDITs expect now with a team change Wilson will revert to a rushing QB. I do not expect that. His record is clear and super improvement (>10% ish) would be a surprise.