The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!
After a challenging few weeks in NFL DFS, we have a return of some of the top names at running back and an interesting list of players to look at for this weeks’ High Value Touch DFS Index for the Main Slate this Sunday, along with a few players that just missed the cut.
Top 5 Values:
5) James Robinson: $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 18.37 (No. 5 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 15.18 (No. 6 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.57 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.14 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 61.54 percent
James Robinson is back on the list this week. He is No. 5 with 1.57 carries inside the 10-yard line per game. Robinson did not play last week, and he did not practice this week on Wednesday. Facing a solid Indianapolis run defense, I like him as a GPP pivot away from Leonard Fournette if he is healthy and Fournette gets too chalky. Coming off a heel injury, it might be wiser to stay away from Robinson this week to see how he looks.
4) Ezekiel Elliott: $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 18.88 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 16.52 (No. 3 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.25 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.38 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 82.61 percent
Ezekiel Elliott Opportunity Metrics
Ezekiel Elliott is in a similar position this week as he was last week. He is No. 11 among running backs in carries inside the 10-yard line per game, No. 9 on the slate this Sunday. He is No. 4 among running backs in targets inside the 10-yard line per game. The Cowboys face Atlanta, which is the No. 24 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game. Check the injury status as Eliott was limited in practice on Wednesday. If he healthy enough to play regular snaps, I like him in both cash games and GPPs as Dallas looks to bounce back after an embarrassing outing last week against Denver.
3) Mike Davis: $4,700 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 25.08 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 17.99 (No. 2 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.75 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.38 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 56.96 percent
Mike Davis Game Log
Mike Davis‘ usage in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line has been decreasing, but so has his price, keeping him ranked high on this list. I do not recommend rostering, I would rather look to the players that just missed the cut instead of Davis this week.
2) Leonard Fournette: $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 23.16 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.09 (No. 3 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.75 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.25 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 62.07 percent
Leonard Fournette is back this week after a bye last week. He is tied for No. 3 among running backs with 1.75 carries inside the 10-yard line per game. Additionally, he is No. 9 among running backs with 3.8 receptions per game. With Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Godwin not practicing and possibly not playing this week, Fournette looks like an intriguing option. He is both cash game and GPP viable this week.
1) Zack Moss: $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 25.15 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.38 (No. 1 overall)
Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.43 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.29 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 73.20 percent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar_4PQWjORU?start=1078&feature=oembed
Zack Moss is No. 1 for the third straight week. He is tied for No. 7 among running backs with 1.43 carries inside the 10-yard line per game and No. 10 among running backs with 0.29 targets inside the 10-yard line per game. Additionally, he is No. 9 in Red Zone Snap Share among running backs. He continues to be priced at bargain prices. Moss is in the concussion protocol and at the time of this writing is unlikely to play.
Just Missed The Cut
DraftKings: Najee Harris (17.41), D’Andre Swift (17.30), Aaron Jones (17.28)
FanDuel: D’Andre Swift (16.11), Najee Harris (14.63), Aaron Jones (14.32)
Final Thoughts
Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott (if healthy) are cash game viable this week from this list. James Robinson is an interesting tournament play away from Fournette if he is healthy, and Mike Davis is someone to cross off your player pool list as his elevated ranking is based on the first several weeks of the season more than anything else. Before rosters lock, stay up to date on the latest injury news.
We will come back for Week 11 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 10!