Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to the 2022 SUPER BOWL LVI Edition! The regular season may be over and even though season-long fantasy football is done, that doesn’t mean you can’t get in on the action that’s happening for the playoffs and this is it, the big game. Ernie Estrella is tackling Player Prop betting during the playoffs, will break down the championship game, and some of the wiser bets based on how we see the game script going.
Cincinnati Bengals (13-7) at Los Angeles Rams (15-5)
Spread: Rams (-4.0) (-110 BetMGM)
Total: O/U 48.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Start Time: Sunday, February 13, SoFi Stadium 6:30pm ET
Broadcast: NBC / Peacock / NFL
There’s just one game left, that’s right, it’s the Super Bowl. Representing the AFC is the underdog, Cincinnati Bengals led by QB Joe Burrow who has been a winner everywhere he’s gone. From the NFC is the Los Angeles Rams who will become the second straight team to host a Super Bowl. While that may sound like home field advantage, it’s L.A., which means there will be a fairly split representation in the crowd. Could this be the storybook ending to a dream season for QB Matthew Stafford and redemption for Rams head coach Sean McVay, or will the Bengals assert themselves as a future powerhouse and bring home the first NFL title to Cincinnati, Ohio?
By the numbers, these teams are a combined 1-5 in the Super Bowl. They both can score with the Rams averaging 27.2 points per game and the Bengals 26.6. They both pass 59 percent of the time as opposed to running the ball 41 percent. The Rams (45 percent) have a slight edge in third down conversions to the Bengals (41 percent).
Defensively, the Rams give up 95.8 rushing yards per game (5th) and 238.6 yards per game (21st) in the air. The Bengals are not that far off with 106.2 rushing ypg (8th) and 247.7 passing ypg (26th). They’re both sitting around 56 to 57 percent in red zone scoring.
From a personnel standpoint, there’s one group the could dictate the course of this game and it’s the Rams’ defensive line led by Aaron Donald against an offensive line that has not been sharp this postseason. The Bengals are ranked 30th in pass block win rate according to NFL Next Gen Stats. They’ve allowed 55 sacks in the regular season (third-most) compared to the Rams’ 31. In the playoffs, Burrow has been sacked 12 times. Will Jalen Ramsey be able to shut down his assignments or will the Bengals young playmakers take over the game. Cincinnati has a pass rush too that’s combined for 7.0 playoff sacks led by Trey Hendrickson, D.J. Reader, and Sam Hubbard.
The money is leaning heavily on the Bengals beating the 4.0 point spread, and in general, people love to bet the over, but 48.5 total points? Let’s look at both of these teams closer.