Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to 2022 Divisional Playoffs! The regular season may be over and even though season-long fantasy football is done, that doesn’t mean you can’t get in on the action that’s happening for the playoffs. Marc Caviglia and Ernie Estrella are tackling Player Prop betting during the playoffs and are going to break down each game for you along with our picks at the end.
Buffalo Bills (12-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5) (-110 BetMGM)
Total: O/U 54.0 (-110 DraftKings)
Start Time: Sunday, January 23, 6:30pm ET (CBS)
These two teams squared off in the playoffs last year when the Chiefs won 38-24. Buffalo returned the favor in the regular season in Week 5 stomping on the Chiefs, 38-20. Buffalo was rolling over everyone in the early part of the season and caught the Chiefs in a funk. The Chiefs eventually turned it around and became the team we recognized as an offense led by Patrick Mahomes but the Bills come in riding a five-game win streak. Betters are expecting points and they should get that.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen has been in peak form after Since Week 15. He’s been utilizing role player receivers like Isaiah McKenzie, Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders along with Stefon Diggs and TE Dawson Knox. Knox torched the Chiefs earlier in the season for three catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. That’s the red zone threat I like the most since Diggs, McKenzie, Davis and Sanders could all be targeted equally. So Knox is good for an anytime score.
Devin Singletary has taken over the backfield, and has become the overwhelming choice to carry the ball on any run play. Only Allen freelancing is a threat to Singletary’s numbers. I like Singletary to get at least 15-20 touches, especially since the Chiefs have a soft run defense.
Will the Chiefs have enough to slow the Bills down? They’re an average run defense, they’ve been torched by the pass at times. This is a defense that is aggressive and goes for the big play but they can allow a lot of yardage in the process.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City doesn’t have any tricks up their sleeves. You know what they’re capable of and you know that Mahomes is looking to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce with a high volume of targets. Byron Pringle continues to be my favorite receiver to inflate for the Chiefs. He’s good for a touchdown at any point of the game. After Pringle, Mecole Hardman and DeMarcus Robinson get leftovers.
Running the ball should go to Jerick McKinnon again, who surprised people last week. Darrel Williams had a lingering injury from the end of the regular season and it was McKinnon who benefitted. Although he’ll be rushing against the Bills’ tough run defense. They’re stout in the red zone, allowing only seven running backs to pound a score in. An additional two backs scored off a reception. Mahomes could also be a threat to scramble if everyone is covered.
The way to beat the Bills is with a physical running back. Unfortunately, the Chiefs don’t have one so they’ll have to lean on their playmakers. They’re the toughest defense against receivers and are also brutal against tight ends. But you know Kelce and Hill are getting targeted. They’re the pistons to this engine.
Picks to Consider:
- Total Points Over 54.0 (-110 DraftKings)
- Devin Singletary, Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)
- Dawson Knox, Anytime Touchdown (+200 Fanduel)
- Dawson Knox, Over 3.5 Receptions (+115 Fanduel)
- Josh Allen, Passing Yards Over 282.5 (-105 Caesars)
- Patrick Mahomes, Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-154 FOXBet)
- Travis Kelce, Over 5.5 Receptions (-125, PartyCasino)
- Byron Pringle, Anytime Touchdown (+600 Fanduel)
- Byron Pringle, Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (+130 Fanduel)