Before I kick off I’d like to thank Will for letting me contribute to this fantastic blog. I’m a bit of a novice in comparison, but I hope you’ll bear with me!
Now, there’s a lot we don’t know about the upcoming season, but one thing we do know is that defenders no longer lose a point for the first goal they concede in a game. With the new rule applied, a West Brom defender who started every game would’ve been 32 points better off, while at the other end of the scale, a Manchester United or Tottenham defender would’ve benefitted by 21. The average defender last season would’ve earned an additional 0.7 points per game.
The success I had last season was built upon having the cheapest starting defence possible, with Alonso. This is an approach I’ll likely adopt again this season, and even if nobody of Alonso’s ridiculous value unearths this season, I still think there’s room for fluidity between cheap enabling midfielders and mid-budget defenders.
Let’s take Gareth McAuley as an example. His brilliance in front of goal helped him to a return of 100 points last season. When you add in the extra points he would’ve gained with the applied rule change (30) that brings his total for the season to 130, just 10 points shy of many Sky manager’s budget hero of the season; Harry Arter.
In fact, McAuley would’ve only been 4 short of Yaya Toure, 5 short of Cesc Fabregas and would’ve gained more than Fernandinho, who I’ve seen in the occasional draft squad.
In the past many Sky players have had success selecting little or non-playing, bargain basement defenders, but if starting defenders are now worth another 20-30 points per season, then it’s very difficult to argue for the same approach in 17/18.
Beyond this, I think there could be reason to consider mid-priced defenders instead of traditional 4th/5th midfield ‘enablers’, and so we could see a rise in 4 at the back formations in sky this season.
I’m going to highlight a few defenders, like McAuley in 16/17, who I believe could really benefit from the raised points platform for defenders by being in the goals at the other end of the pitch. I’ll then tee up the case for a 4 at the back approach for the 17/18 campaign.
Budget pick first; Summer recruit from Fulham Scott Malone doesn’t come without risk. But with risk often comes reward, and at 6.0 the 6’2” raiding left back could be a useful enabler, particularly early on in the season. He racked up 6 goals in 36 games in the Championship last season, offering a threat from both set pieces and open play, and could even be deployed at left midfield.
Granted, Huddersfield’s backline does look a bit shakier than the other two promoted clubs – conceding 58 in 46 last season compared to 40 a-piece for Newcastle and Brighton.
Though tempting fixtures in the opening the three (cpl, NEW, SOT) should give us a clearer idea on the stubbornness of David Wagner’s defence, and if Malone can prove a starting berth is his to lose then he could be the ideal pre or post-overhaul budget option.
Big German centre back Michael Hefele (5.9) could be the cheapest, safest route into the Huddersfield defence from the start, and managed 5 goals for the Terriers in the last campaign.
Big Craig Dawson is a man who I’ve optimistically owned in the past and has never quite done the business for me in front of either goal, but I think he could be a good pick this season. Coming in at 7.4 he offers reasonable value as a guaranteed starter in Tony Pulis’s backline.
He notched a so-so 4 goals last season, and 4 again the season before, but with the aforementioned Gareth MacAuley in his twilight years (career-wise), I suspect the 6’2” centre-cum-right back could become Pulis’s main threat from set plays in 17/18. He’s already threatening more than McAuley, with a goal attempt every 156 minutes, compared to the Northern Irishman’s 196.
Last campaign, West Brom defenders combined to score 15 league goals, 2nd in total only to Chelsea. If this is repeated, even a modest increase in Dawson’s share could be worth its weight in gold for fantasy managers.
With 3 tasty pre-overhaul fixtures (BOU, bur, STO) and set-piece specialist Chris Brunt fighting fit from the off this time round, the Baggies’ Baresi is certainly in my thoughts for next month’s kick off.
Pushing the upper limits of what I’d normally consider value for a defender in Sky, Charlie Daniels just about earns himself a place in this article. Dubiously classified as a midfielder in last season’s game, Daniels would’ve been the highest scoring defender outside of the top 6 teams in 16/17 with 109 points.
The former Spurs man would’ve only benefitted by a single point in last year’s game by being classified correctly as a defender (+4 defender goal pts, +50 CS points, – 53 conceded goals) but when you also apply this season’s rule change, he shoots up to 135 points. This would’ve had him within a maximum of 5 points of Xhaka, Kante, Can, and Arter – all worth between 0.7 and 1.9m more than him in the upcoming season.
Though I may not plump for Daniels from the start, all of this is food for thought. Should Bournemouth have a favourable run of fixtures then Daniels should without doubt be considered alongside the likes of Arter (8.2) and Stanislas (8.0) as good cover at a cheaper price.
“Hang on a minute. Didn’t you just say Charlie Daniels at 7.5 was pushing it!?”
Yes. But think about this. You’ve built 10 out of 11 of your team and you’re sitting with around 8m in the bank. You could go for a 4th or 5th ‘budget’ midfielder and play a 3-4-3 or a 3-5-2, which in the past in Sky was a no-brainer.
We’ve discussed the benefits of defenders keeping a point for the first goal conceded, on average 0.7 points per game. But beyond that, Spurs’ stubborn defence kept 17 clean sheets, and conceded 2 or more goals just 4 times last season. That means that on only 4 occasions would a starting Spurs defender end the game on less than the 2 points they started with, under the new rules. And that’s excluding goals, assists and bonus. On no occasion did Spurs concede 3 or more goals. Impressive.
Now considering Trippier racked up a tackle bonus 3 times in just 6 starts last season and picked up 5 assists he seems like an absolute gem at 8.1 should he nail down a starting place.
City have just had a £50m bid for Kyle Walker accepted, and should that go through the former Burnley man’s stock increases substantially. Another one to monitor for now.
As we’re still about a month out from the season starting, it’s naturally tough to have confidence in starting lineups, through ongoing transfer activity, tactical changes and even injuries, but I reckon the 4 players outlined could be in amongst the points at both ends of the pitch next season.
Next Article
I’ll be delving a bit deeper into the 3 vs 4 at the back debate, by comparing midfield and defensive options at different price brackets. There may be real value in going 4 at the back at times this season, and it’ll be interesting to see whether sky’s boosting of defenders really levels the playing field.