Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Fanteam, other daily fantasy football or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.
All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 21 May 2021.
The forward look – GW38:
The forward look – Gameweek 38:
| Arsenal | v | Brighton |
| 62% | Win % | 18% |
| 42% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| 62% | To score 2+ % | 28% |
| Martineli (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Welbeck (3) |
| Martineli (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Jahanbakhsh (2) |
| Martineli (26.3) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Sanchez (27.3) |
| Aston Villa | v | Chelsea |
| 15% | Win % | 69% |
| 17% | Clean sheet % | 29% |
| 25% | To score 2+ % | 67% |
| Watkins (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Havertz (4) |
| Watkins (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Mount (3) |
| Watkins (35.1) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | James (29.1) |
| Fulham | v | Newcastle |
| 47% | Win % | 30% |
| 29% | Clean sheet % | 21% |
| 56% | To score 2+ % | 42% |
| Carvalho (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Willock (4) |
| Decordova-Reid (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Ritchie (2) |
| Areola (22.6) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Willock (28.3) |
| Leeds | v | West Brom |
| 69% | Win % | 14% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 13% |
| 75% | To score 2+ % | 31% |
| Bamford (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Diagne (3) |
| Harrison (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Pereria (3) |
| Dallas (30.0) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Pereira (33.2) |
| Leicester | v | Tottenham |
| 49% | Win % | 29% |
| 30% | Clean sheet % | 21% |
| 56% | To score 2+ % | 42% |
| Iheanacho (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Kane (6) |
| Iheanacho (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Alli (2) |
| Iheanacho (36.4) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Son (32.5) |
| Liverpool | v | Crystal Palace |
| 85% | Win % | 5% |
| 58% | Clean sheet % | 9% |
| 83% | To score 2+ % | 17% |
| Salah (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Benteke (4) |
| Alexander-Arnold (4) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Zaha (1) |
| Salah (41.1) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Benteke (33.8) |
| Man City | v | Everton |
| 69% | Win % | 14% |
| 45% | Clean sheet % | 15% |
| 69% | To score 2+ % | 25% |
| Torres (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Calvert-Lewin (4) |
| B. Silva (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Digne (2) |
| Ederson (19.5) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Digne (33.8) |
| Sheffield United | v | Burnley |
| 35% | Win % | 41% |
| 26% | Clean sheet % | 29% |
| 44% | To score 2+ % | 48% |
| Jebbison (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Wood (7) |
| Osborn (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | McNeill (3) |
| Ramsdale (30.8) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Wood (36.6) |
| West Ham | v | Southampton |
| 57% | Win % | 20% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| 61% | To score 2+ % | 33% |
| Antonio (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Adams (6) |
| Benrahama (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Adams (2) |
| Coufal (30.5) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Adams (33.1) |
| Wolves | v | Man United |
| 40% | Win % | 36% |
| 29% | Clean sheet % | 26% |
| 48% | To score 2+ % | 44% |
| Saiss (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) |
Greenwood (4) |
| Traore (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Rashford (2) |
| Traore (26.2) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Greenwood (36.8 |
Braveheart’s GW38 reveal:
Heading into the last gameweek of the season I have 1 FT and 1.8m in the bank. I have no more chips (having wildcarded in GW35 to maximise the double gameweek and set my team up for the season). A number of problems cropped up in my team in GW36 so my out-list looks like this:
- Vincente Guaita – he was dropped for the match against Aston Villa and as I have Forster on my bench I have an unwelcome goalkeeping headache at the end of the season, plus in GW38 Guaita plays Liverpool so can expect to concede a lot of goals,
- Luke Shaw – I cannot see him playing against Wolves with the Europa League final just a few days away,
- Bruno Fernandes – Like Shaw, he will be wrapped up in cotton wool ahead of the Europa League final and 11.4m is a lot of cash to bench in the final gameweek,
- Ollie Watkins – his last fixture isn’t great and I wanted to bring in Antonio as his replacement but the other fires seem more important especially since Watkins has returned in all but two gameweeks since GW28.
I’m 5 points behind in my main mini-league so I’d be looking to try and bring in a differential with a maximium upside. If replacing Shaw, I’d like the look of Robertson v Palace. If replacing Bruno, I like the look of Mane and, as a differential, Aubameyang as replacements or any attacking Man City midfielder if team news is leaked prior to the deadline. If replacing Watkins (unlikely), I’d bring in Antonio.
My plan is to hold off my transfer until Sunday morning just in case there is any late or leaked team news so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for confirmation of my final squad. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in the final gameweek. Thank you for reading these articles this season. I have really appreciated all of the input. Most importantly, stay safe out there and have an enjoyable summer! See you once again in GW1 of 2021/2022!