The first Mexico Open at Vidanta ever on the PGA Tour schedule is here and we’re making our DraftKings picks and building a winning PGA DFS lineup.
If you don’t remember the Mexico Open at Vidanta from previous years on the PGA Tour, you’re actually in the right. This is a debut event on the tour, though the tournament itself has been played for many years on various other tours. That plus a relatively weak field provides quite an interesting look as we break down the DraftKings PGA DFS slate for this week.
The natural inclination is going to be to put the guys you know in your lineup and, to some degree, you want to do that. At the same time, though, most people are going to think that way, so you’re going to want to find the right spots to make a pivot with your picks so that you can differ your lineup up enough to give you more upside.
With that said, doing so is going to take some surgical precision with your picks given that only six players ranked inside of the Top 50 in the world are playing at Vidanta Vallarta, a course that we don’t know but have enough information to recognize that players are going to have to be long and ready to score to compete and contend.
My expert picks and best bets are in the link at the top while BetSided’s Iain MacMillan offered up his outright picks as well. Now that we’ve laid the groundwork, let’s dissect our top plays and fades for each pricing tier with our Mexico Open DraftKings picks.
DraftKings picks for Mexico Open PGA DFS lineups: Top Plays
$10,000: Jon Rahm ($11,300) – When you look at the $10K range this week, the only player you should even consider is Rahm. Given what his odds are to win, you could argue that he’s underpriced and we know what his top form looks like. That being said, he’s the obvious play because of the rest of the range just not being worth this price either because of course fit or recent form (or both). In any case, go Rahm or start your lineup in the $9K range. Personally, I prefer the latter.
$9,000: Gary Woodland ($9,900) – Any lineup that I build for this week is going to start with Gary Woodland. Sure, he’s my pick to win, but I also think his form and the way he plays fits perfectly with what most people believe will be required this week. He’s long off the tee, his approach play has been phenomenal, and he’s been gaining with the putter. I love him this week and think he should be close to a must-play seeing that he just escapes the $10K range. Also consider: Sebastian Munoz ($9,800), Chris Kirk ($9,600), Aaron Wise ($9,500), Kevin Streelman ($9,100)
$8,000: Charles Howell III ($8,400) – Things do get a bit tough to navigate in the $8K range, especially because you will probably have to dip into this range no matter where you start your lineup. Howell might not be the sexiest pick but he could very well be a good one. One of the best course comps for Vidanta is TPC San Antonio for the Valero. Howell was T4 there this year and has another Top 10 recently. He’s also played decently well at resort-style and tropical courses. In a range I’m skeptical of, I’ll take Howell. Also consider: Sahith Theegala ($8,800), Aaron Rai ($8,700), Davis Riley ($8,500), Lanto Griffin ($8,300)
$7,000: Tyler Duncan ($7,200) – I’m going to keep beating the Tyler Duncan drum this week. He’s been in sneaky good form of late with a T14 at Zurich, T12 at RBC Heritage and two Top 30s before that. He’s not long off the tee, which is a worry, but he’s been really good on long approaches this year. Moreover, Duncan finished T35 and T28 at Puerto Rico and Puntacana, two other comps for Vidanta. At this price, he’s a terrific value who could really pop this week. Also consider: Anirban Lahiri ($7,900), Austin Smotherman ($7,800), Scott Stallings ($7,700), Patrick Rodgers ($7,600), Joseph Bramlett ($7,100)
$6,000: Justin Lower ($6,800) – My best advice would be to try and avoid the $6K range if at all possible. It gets pretty bleak down here. However, I do like the upside of Lower, a guy who thrived on the Korn Ferry last year and this year and who was Top 20 at both Corales Putacana and the Bermuda, two resort-style courses with sticky Paspalum. That makes him worth a look if you have to dive into the bottom range. Also Consider: Hayden Buckley ($6,800), Brandon Hagy ($6,400)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88wbbzs5WdU?feature=oembed
DraftKings picks for Mexico Open PGA DFS lineups: Top Fades
$10,000: Kevin Na ($10,100) – Don’t just look at Na’s recent form and think you might be getting a bit of value in this weak field. Yes, he’s finished well, but he’s done so on courses that don’t require him to hit it far off the tee or play well with his long approaches, two areas where he’s below average this season. This course figures to demand that of players and he’s not worth this price. And for what it’s worth, avoid Patrick Reed like the plague as well.
$9,000: Brendon Todd ($9,300) – Much like with Na, the requisite length required to succeed at a course such as this just doesn’t seem to be there with Todd. Perhaps more importantly, he’s been far too erratic given the conservative nature of his game. If I’m paying up in a talent-rich $9K range, I want more certainty than what Todd brings to the table, so I won’t have any stock in him this week in Mexico.
$8,000: Doug Ghim ($8,900) – Over his career, we’ve seen Ghim really pop at times and a tournament such as this one with a weak field would make sense. With that said, however, the form just isn’t there for me to pay this price to have him in my lineup. He’s missed the cut in four of his last six starts, including at the Valero Texas Open. I can’t buy into that this week and he’s part of the reason why the $8K range is so sketcy in my eyes.
$7,000: Wyndham Clark ($7,600) – In some aspects, a big-hitter like Wyndham Clark could pop at this course where errant drives shouldn’t be too penal and players need to bump it far down the track off the tee. This is about the eye test, though. While Clark and Cameron Tringale played solidly at the Zurich, Clark individually looked not great at all. There is some nice value in the $7K range and Clark just isn’t going to make the cut after what I saw last week.
Mexico Open: Best DraftKings golf lineup
- Gary Woodland ($9,900)
- Aaron Wise ($9,500)
- Charles Howell III ($8,400)
- Anirban Lahiri ($7,900)
- Tyler Duncan ($7,200)
- Joseph Bramlett ($7,100)
Woodland, Howell and Duncan have all been covered and I love their combination of upside and form heading into this week where they should all be solid course fits. As for Wise, he’s the linchpin for this lineup. His ball-striking has been terrific but, as always, his putter has killed him. All indications, however, are that should be marginalized by the course and greens this week, meaning he could make some real noise.
We’ve also seen Lahiri pop this year with a second-place finish at THE PLAYERS and a T13 at Valero. He seems to be a nice fit here and could be a sleeper. As for Bramlett, this is a shot-in-the-dark on a bomber who is also good with his long irons. His form isn’t much to write home about but there is potential for him to just overpower this course and make some noise.