Breaking down our RBC Heritage DraftKings picks with plays and fades at each pricing tier and building a PGA DFS golf lineup for this week.
Forget a Masters hangover, we’re all-in this week on the trip to Hilton Head, SC and Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage. Unlike Augusta, this is a course that is shorter than most but wholly demands accurate hitters both off the tee and on approach with narrow, forest-lined fairways and some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.
That definitely changes the way we’re going to approach our DraftKings picks for the PGA DFS slate. Even a top player in the world can struggle if he doesn’t have a game that fits this golf course, so we have to look at how a player succeeds in addition to their form and, of course, history at this event.
So where do we start? Where we always do with our Top Plays before we go into the Top Fades and then build our DraftKings lineup for the RBC Heritage. Let’s get it going.
DraftKings picks for RBC Heritage PGA DFS lineup: Top Plays
$10,000: Dustin Johnson ($10,500) – If you’ve read my expert picks for the week, you know that I’m picking DJ to win this week. There is some risk in that considering that he’s not finished in the Top 10 at Harbour Town in the last four years, but I love his trends and approach numbers right now. Having said all of that, there’s a good chance I look past the $10K range altogether and start my lineup in the $9Ks. Also Consider: Collin Morikawa ($10,200)
$9,000: Corey Conners ($9,700) – What’s not to like about Corey Conners this week (or really any week that we’ve seen him as of late)? Conners’ last four starts have been T11 at API, T26 at THE PLAYERS, T35 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at The Masters. His accuracy both off the tee and with his irons are some of the highest-ranking numbers in this field in totality and his putter hasn’t been crushing him late. I love for him to make a big run this week and more than pay off this price. Also consider: Shane Lowry ($9,800), Daniel Berger ($9,600), Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,500), Russell Henley ($9,000)
$8,000: Chris Kirk ($8,000) – There are several guys in the $8K range that I’m a fan of this week but I can’t pass up the value of Kirk at the bottom of the pricing tier. In his last five starts, he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS but otherwise finished T14, T7, T5 and T35. He’s in terrific form with his irons and has been decent off the tee. The accuracy on his tee shots does worry me slightly as he’s not elite there but the rest of his game is good enough for me to not be able to pass up this value. Also consider: Harold Varner III ($8,500), Si Woo Kim ($8,400), Alex Noren ($8,300), Tommy Fleetwood ($8,200), Kevin Kisner ($8,100)
$7,000: Adam Hadwin ($7,600) – This pricing is just disrespectful on Hadwin given his recent form. He didn’t qualify for The Masters but he was in the Top 10 in his previous three starts and has only finished outside the top 26 in one of his last six starts. He’s an accurate hitter both off the tee and on approach and he’s just playing terrific golf right now. Put the Canadian in your lineup and don’t think twice about it. Also consider: Maverick McNealy ($7,900), Brian Harman ($7,700), Kevin Streelman ($7,500), J.J. Spaun ($7,300), Anirban Lahiri ($7,100)
$6,000: Joel Dahmen ($6,800) – For a week that demands accurate players who can also score, you have to like Joel Dahmen at this price and the value he presents. Dahmen has been solid this season, making 11-of-14 cuts and two top-six finishes along with four other Top 40 showings. He’s one of BetSided’s Iain MacMillan’s dark horse picks this week and here’s why:
As I pointed out in my betting preview, it’s a smart idea to target accurate hitters who can suffer from a lack of distance off the tee at other courses. Joel Dahmen fits the bill, as he ranks 12th in driving accuracy and eighth in greens in regulation. He’s made the cut in both previous starts at the RBC Heritage. You could do much worse at 125/1 than Dahmen.
One of those finishes at Harbour Town? T16. The value with Dahmen is undeniable and you can dip down to the $6K range and feel confident here. Also Consider: Brendon Todd ($6,800), Nate Lashley ($6,700), Matthew NeSmith ($6,600), Michael Thompson ($6,500), Adam Svensson ($6,400), Chez Reavie ($6,300)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGQ2ASd8KC4?feature=oembed
DraftKings picks for RBC Heritage PGA DFS lineup: Top Fades
$10,000: Cameron Smith ($10,800) – Some might call this a fool’s errand with how well Cameron Smith has played this year with two wins and a T3 at The Masters in his last five starts. With that said, the one area where the Aussie really struggles is being accurate off the tee. That’s a death sentence at Harbour Town and is why he missed the cut there in 2020 and 2019. Throw in the potential for fatigue after his run at Augusta and I’m not paying up for a player I have concerns about this week at this course.
$9,000: Jordan Spieth ($9,200) – Honestly, you could just say that Spieth missed his first cut ever at Augusta as enough evidence that he’s not in any form you want to have your money behind. Iain MacMillan broke down players to fade at the RBC Heritage for BetSided and Spieth was front and center. Here’s what he had to say:
I’m tired of Jordan Spieth being at short odds to win every tournament. I begged and pleaded people to not bet on him at the Masters last week, and I was justified when he missed the cut. He 138th in driving accuracy, and he’s having the worst putting season of his career, ranking 180th in strokes gained: putting.
Until he proves me wrong, continue to fade Spieth.
In a deep, rich $9K range, literally almost everyone is a better option than Spieth in this form.
$8,000: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,600) – Another player my guy Iain MacMillan is fading this week, Hatton is not someone to bet on this week. Everything good we’d seen from the Englishman over the past few months went out the window on the weekend at The Masters. He lost strokes across the board overall and just looked ready to be anywhere but on the golf course. Could he turn that around after getting away from major championship conditions? Maybe, but it’s not a risk I’m willing to take this week.
$7,000: Jason Kokrak ($7,900) – Kokrak is a name most fans will recognize and has played well in the past year or so. What’s being overlooked is that his off-the-tee and tee-to-green game has slipped a ton since last year and his putting is slightly worse as well. On top of that, he missed the cut in 75 percent of his four starts at Harbour Town from 2017-2020. This is just a bad fit for Kokrak, so don’t pay up for a name you recognize in the $7K range — it’s not worth it.
RBC Heritage DFS picks: Best DraftKings golf lineup
- Corey Conners ($9,700)
- Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,500)
- Alex Noren ($8,300)
- Chris Kirk ($8,000)
- Adam Hadwin ($7,600)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,800)
As I teased earlier, I’m perfectly comfortable doubling up in the $9K range to start your lineups this week, especially with Conners and Fitzpatrick in the lineup. Beyond that we talked about the other players on this list plenty throughout the top plays, which goes to show what you can do with the lineup on DraftKings after you wave off the $10K range.
The one surprise might be Alex Noren but it shouldn’t be. His last five starts have resulted in T6, T48, T5, T26 and T12. He has three Top 28 finishes at the RBC Heritage in the last three years and has been in better form of late. His ball-striking should play well in its current form and I love his high floor at a track where he has enjoyed good experiences recently in his career.